SUPER 15 - WEEK BY WEEK

With the start of the Super 15 less than a week away it's probably the right time to have a look at the prospects of the various sides :

Let's start off by reviewing what we already know:

The format of the new competition guarantees each region at least one participant in the so-called 'finals' which stretch over the final three weeks. As we all learned last year - this gives the competition quite a different feel as it keeps qualification for the top six alive until quite late into the season.

This year we also have to contend with a mid season break to accomodate incoming international tours in the Sanzar regions. This immediately raises a red flag for me as it means that those franchises which contribute significantly to their test teams actually get little or no respite from the pressures of top class rugby. So while the middle pin sides get a welcome break the top sides are likely to have few opportunities to rest their top players. You need to factor this in.

Last year many complained that Australia was favoured by the new format. This year I am not so sure as their top players (which number far fewer than NZ or RSA) are likely to be on almost uninterrupted call from late February until early August despite the contention that their derbies are less tough than those of their Sanzar partners.. Clearly significant DEPTH is going to be the defining issue in the months ahead - which is where the Australian Achilles Heel has always lain.

There have also been massive changes in most of the franchises - both personnel and coaching - as is usually the case after a World Cup.

This year I am breaking with tradition and not taking up an early long term position. The market is looking remarkably ungenerous so it might pay to see if there are a few early form reversals and then back some of the form horses on the drift.

Examples :

The Crusaders without McCaw & Carter in the early rounds may well drop a game or two. Their opener against what appears to be an improved Auckland Blues squad is a good example why they might well be 4/1 after week one as opposed to the 3/1 presently on offer.

The Reds start without Cooper. They can downplay his role in 2011 until hell freezes over but they are unlikely to have anyone with his talent able to slot in until his return.

The Stormers look extraordinarily short in the betting. Apart from losing Jacque Fourie and promising youngsters Engelbrecht & Sadie they appear to have the 'same old same old' deficiencies up front where they have signed a pensioner at prop to mentor two schoolboys.

Of the South African franchises only the Sharks appear to offer even a glimpse of betting value at this early stage. The Bulls are in a rebuilding stage and seem committed to persisting with a style only a terminally challenged opposing coach would not be able to outfox. One also has to wonder whether their travel issues might resurface this year amongst the younger inexperienced players.

I will happily eat humble pie if proven incorrect but my early tip for underachiever of the season will have to be the Chiefs who have married a world class backline to a Vodacom cup class pack. Factor in the influence of the highly disruptive Sonny Bill Williams and I believe we have the recipe for a ragged season from them.

So my early call is : Sit on your hands.

Of the South African franchises only the Sharks appear to offer even a glimpse of betting value at this early stage. The Bulls are in a rebuilding stage and seem committed to persisting with a style only a terminally challenged opposing coach would not be able to outfox. One also has to wonder whether their travel issues might resurface this year amongst the younger inexperienced players.

And the Lions? They did beat a star studded Sharks team in the CC final

What about us that need to have a bet Garrick?

great piece as always

Ou Ryperd Wrote:

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> Of the South African franchises only the Sharks
> appear to offer even a glimpse of betting value at
> this early stage. The Bulls are in a rebuilding
> stage and seem committed to persisting with a
> style only a terminally challenged opposing coach
> would not be able to outfox. One also has to
> wonder whether their travel issues might resurface
> this year amongst the younger inexperienced
> players.
>
> And the Lions? They did beat a star studded Sharks
> team in the CC final


I didn't mention the Lions ( or Cheetahs ) for the following reasons ;

The Lions were quoted at 500/1 before the 2011 Super 15. This year they are quoted at 50/1. I would like someone to explain to me how they are suddenly 450/1 better than in 2011.

Yes - they won the Currie Cup. And credit to them for that. Yes - they have improved. But not by the margin that the market suggests. They were the only union unaffected by national callup so it was to be expected they that would go close in the Currie Cup. To me they are a long way off being serious Super 15 contenders.

Cheetahs - they have been very listless in the pre-season. But if you held a gun to my head I would back them before the Lions. Preferably I would back neither on what I have seen to date..... but maybe they are all playing their cards close to their chests.

But I would back the Stormers if they bought two good props and the Cheetahs flyhalf!

Garrick Wrote:

---

> Ou Ryperd Wrote:
>

---

>
>
> I didn't mention the Lions ( or Cheetahs ) for the
> following reasons ;
>
> The Lions were quoted at 500/1 before the 2011
> Super 15. This year they are quoted at 50/1. I
> would like someone to explain to me how they are
> suddenly 450/1 better than in 2011.
>
> Yes - they won the Currie Cup. And credit to them
> for that. Yes - they have improved. But not by the
> margin that the market suggests. They were the
> only union unaffected by national callup so it was
> to be expected they that would go close in the
> Currie Cup. To me they are a long way off being
> serious Super 15 contenders.
>
> Cheetahs - they have been very listless in the
> pre-season. But if you held a gun to my head I
> would back them before the Lions. Preferably I
> would back neither on what I have seen to
> date..... but maybe they are all playing their
> cards close to their chests.
>
> But I would back the Stormers if they bought two
> good props and the Cheetahs flyhalf!


Too late....Habanna drained their budget....AGAIN.....

Must agree to a degree that the Lions are not real contenders, but, they could be the surprise packet....hungry

Not long now,if you read the social network sites,everyone seems so excitedabout the SUPER15

Going against the grain - again.

I think the Lions is value - I get Garrick's point about them being 500/1 last year - but was that realistic? I also fancy them at 8/1 to win the SA conference.

To me the Stormers look weaker than last year and the Sharks about the same - and they were not good enough then, were they?

Also I get the point of the Bulls being better in a year or 2, but I think they may surprise a couple of people. Not sure about he Cheetahs - probably mid table.

Don't know too much about the overseas sides - but no reason why the Crusaders won't be there at the end again - yes they may struggle in the opening rounds, but that has never stopped them before. And the Reds were very good last year - yes, they will also miss Cooper, but if / once he returns, there is no reason for them to suddenly go backwards

Just my opinion

I think the best bet of the weekend is the Cheetahs to beat the Lions at 15/10

PeeKay Wrote:

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> I think the best bet of the weekend is the
> Cheetahs to beat the Lions at 15/10


Obviously we disagree

I battle to see The Lions finishing in the Top half of the league. The don't have any additions to their Currie Cup side but they should beat the Cheetahs this weekend.

I am playing an all to come on the weekend rugby and on Sportsbet it came to 2,95/1:
Chiefs (Outright) vs Highlanders
Stormers (Outright) vs Hurricanes
Wales (Outright) vs England
France (Outright) vs Scotland

Will wait for teams to get into their strides before getting too brave.

Blues to beat Crusaders by 5
Force to beat Brumbies by 8

As for the Bulls vs Sharks

I have hope for the Bulls now that Michalak is playing @ 9. Against Hougaardt (even Vermaak on the bench) he is out of his depth. The Sharks bench is also suspect....1 prop?

If the Sharks use their bench, the Bulls will beat them