SUPER 15 - WEEK BY WEEK

With only speculation and last season's form to go on I find this a difficult card to try and unravel. By Saturday evening I will be thinking one of two things : Either ' Well that was obvious' or 'What the hell happened there?'. Nevertheless - after some of the racing results I saw this week this is a blessed relief!

Blues vs Crusaders :

The Crusaders have a reputation for starting slowly. The Blues have a reputation for blowing hot and cold. Rugby matches are usually defined by a couple of basic realities; chief amongst which are :

Who has a flyhalf that can dominate? Who has the stronger front row? Who might dominate the lineouts?

These three issues lead me to speculate that the Blues are too short in the betting and we may all be asking the question on Monday : When next will we get 12/10 about the Crusaders?

Both sides field rookie flyhalves. That's going to be pretty terminal for whichever one is awed by the event. Crusaders marginally edge it in the front row whilst I prefer the blues locks in the lineouts but not in the close stuff.

Blues definitely offer more behind the scrum but may be starved of possession. In any event - early games are often characterised by poor handling so plentiful possession may end up being a two edged sword.

My early call was confidently in favour of the Blues but that confidence has gradually been ebbing away.

It might be prudent to go in at halftime.

Brumbies vs Force

I'm going home town without knowing why. Probably because the Jake White shadow and new season hangs heavy over this match. Neither promise an awful lot for this season.

Bulls vs Sharks

Sharks have a fair recent record at Loftus. Bulls may possess the huff and puff but I think they carry a bit of baggage from last season's below par efforts in all competitions coupled to a distinct lack of experience. If they fall behind those memories might resurface.

If the Sharks manage to move it around a little this could be interesting although they do often suffer from a 'no show' mindset more often than they care to admit to.

Likely to be a cracker which could go either way. Back your fancy - you have a pretty much 50/50 chance of being correct....

Chiefs vs Highlanders

I clearly have the needle to the Chiefs for no good reason. Actually - I do have a reason and its their pack. Highlanders could spring first surprise of the competition if they keep it tight and grind the home side. Chiefs like losing at home so that advantage means nothing. Fast and loose will be the death knell of the visitors. But as any old WP/Bulls veteran will tell you - the best backs in the world are no help if you are being murdered up front.

Stormers vs Hurricanes

Stormers have not always been too flash against the Hurricanes. Underestimate the visitors at your peril. But surely the home side should be able to scrape this one?

Yet for some reason the Hurricanes with the plus is winking at me.

Lions vs Cheetahs

Cheetahs have baffled me so far in the warmups. They look disturbingly off their game. Midfield looks porous. Lineouts shocking. Tight forwards look unfit. But I am looking forward to seeing Goosen at flyhalf.

If this were in Bloemfontein I would punt the Cheetahs. But away from home I am anything but optimistic.

This could also be an intriguing battle of the boot insofar as penalties are concerned. Both flyhalves can be deadly on their day.

I am going to lean marginally towards the Lions on the premise that they have looked stronger and fitter to date. The Currie Cup victory has certainly helped although I suspect they might still prove to be clueless when they bump into a top class overseas side.

In summary - it's probably unwise to empty your access bond for any of the first round matches as too much has changed in most of the franchises in the last few months to punt with confidence. But as most of you probably face horrendous settling after the midweek racing you may just have to have a go! Don't overlook the option of waiting until halftime.

the first round reminds me of the first Two-year-old races - Lots of Hype but more often than not the favs win
Fun bet(better to wait until next week)
eg 1

RUGBY > SUPER 15 (BLUES@HOME)
BLUES vs CRUSADERS
24-Feb-2012 08:35
BLUES / CRUSADERS 0.75 Home
Leg 2

RUGBY > SUPER 15 (BRUMBIES@HOME)
BRUMBIES vs WESTERN FORCE
24-Feb-2012 10:40
BRUMBIES / FORCE 0.6 Home
Leg 3

RUGBY > SUPER 15 (BULLS@HOME)
BULLS vs SHARKS
24-Feb-2012 19:10
BULLS / SHARKS 0.7 Home
Leg 4

RUGBY > SUPER 15 (CHIEFS@HOME)
CHIEFS vs HIGHLANDERS
25-Feb-2012 08:35
CHIEFS / HIGHLANDERS 0.4 Home
Leg 5

RUGBY > SUPER 15 (WARATAHS@HOME)
WARATAHS vs REDS
25-Feb-2012 10:40
WARATAHS (+1.5) / REDS (-1.5) 0.65 Home
Leg 6

RUGBY > SUPER 15 (STORMERS@HOME)
STORMERS vs HURRICANES
25-Feb-2012 17:05
STORMERS / HURRICANES 0.22 Home
Leg 7

RUGBY > SUPER 15 (LIONS@HOME)
LIONS vs CHEETAHS
25-Feb-2012 19:10
LIONS / CHEETAHS 0.65 Home
Stake:
Final Price: 21.13
Potential Payout: 211.34



Multiple (2 Legs)
Leg 1

RUGBY > SUPER 15 (BRUMBIES@HOME)
BRUMBIES vs WESTERN FORCE
24-Feb-2012 10:40
BRUMBIES / FORCE 0.6 Home
Leg 2

The safer option?

RUGBY > SUPER 15 (BULLS@HOME)
BULLS vs SHARKS
24-Feb-2012 19:10
BULLS / SHARKS 0.7 Home
Stake:
Final Price: 1.72
Potential Payout: 17.20
Min. stake: 1.00
Any payout involving Horse Racing is subject to 6% TAX.

Multiple (2 Legs)
Leg 1

RUGBY > SUPER 15 (CHIEFS@HOME)
CHIEFS vs HIGHLANDERS
25-Feb-2012 08:35
CHIEFS (-9.5) / HIGHLANDERS (+9.5) 1.1 Home
Leg 2

RUGBY > SUPER 15 (WARATAHS@HOME)
WARATAHS vs REDS
25-Feb-2012 10:40
WARATAHS / REDS 0.85 Home
Stake:
Final Price: 2.89
Potential Payout: 2.88

terrific win for the Reds. They dug in the entire game and came out with their just reward, a win against their arch enemies.

Amazing that every team that has lost so far have picked up a bonus point

Now it's Sunday and I wish that I HAD emptied my access bond over the weekend ! Barring one small hiccup everything I punted fell my way and I ended up winning a tidy sum.

What did we learn ?

The Crusaders look impressive barring a midfield which relys heavily on Fruen. Heaven help us when Carter, in particular, returns.

The Blues will improve and be lively contenders throughout the season.

The Brumbies and Force both look on track to be cellar dwellers.

I'll defer an opinion on the Sharks until I see them at home. But those who endlessly criticised John Smit's leadership had better start campaigning for a new leader right now. Keegan Daniel is clueless, has poor 'referee relationship' skills and spends too much time transgressing in his personal capacity to lead his side and make tactical decisions. I think the Sharks need to be bold and make Lambie captain as I cannot identify anyone else in the side with the necessary rugby brain and vision.

The Bulls have cancelled plan B altogether and are going to kick every match ( and themselves! ) to death. These brain dead tactics won't work much beyond week 1 now that eveybody knows what their plans are. Nevertheless there was plenty of energy on display against the Sharks.

The Chiefs performed exactly as I predicted and incurred some injuries for their troubles as well.

The Highlanders have to be the Everton of Super Rugby. Not a lot of talent but plenty of honest endeavour. Like Everton they will probably remain mid table but are guaranteed to knock over a few big names. Although they play a very basic type of rugby they do attempt to go wide when the opportunity presents itself.

The Waratahs and Reds both look relatively promising. Reds have definitely developed 'heart' and the know how to tough out difficult matches. Saturday's historic win AWAY from home is a warning that they will be up there again this season.

Ditto the Waratahs although they do historically fade in the latter parts of the season. But in this instance they look forward to a number of leading players returning in the next few weeks so I expect improvement.

Stormers were helter skelter against a shockingly ill disciplined Hurricanes side. Hurricanes look likely to compete for the wooden spoon on this display but, to be honest, I did not think the Stormers were all that much better. As a litmus test - By how far do you think the Crusaders would have won this game? Hmmmmm. The highlight was that Aplon looked sharp and Kolisi looks a find together with Etsebeth. As usual - the front row looks suspect and we lack a flyhalf who can create opportunity for the centres.

The Lions and Cheetahs produced a penalty fest of note. Clearly neither side understands or cares about the laws. Rock on, cavemen!

Goosen looks something special at flyhalf and now makes infringements anywhere up to the home 10 yard line a no no. Jantjes pretty neat too. The one issue which the Lions are clearly highlighting is the issue of fitness. They sure hang in well. But I think you can safely put them both back towards the lower end of the table.

In summary - the more things change the more they remain the same.

Thanks Garrick. Good assessment after the first week play.
I must agree about Sharks (non) leadership. The younger DuP brother will be a good captain. SHARKS still one of my favourites for cup glory.
Be careful, the Brumbies are the dark horse of the competition. I dont write them off. Highlanders, very competetive but lack of depth will see them lose pace in the latter stages.
NZ teams looking strong. Blues and Saders must be obvious early favourites.

But lots to still come.

@ Garrick. Well done and thanks for your in-depth previews & reviews

Chiefs vs Blues; both lost their 1st game. Chiefs lost both props trough injury. On paper the Blues look stronger. A lot of flair in both back lines, but I think the Blues should win this by 10 or more

Rebels vs Tahs; 1st game for the Rebels. The loss of Beale must be a major blow. O'Connor @ 12 will bring some magic to the Rebels as he is play-maker of note. The Tahs let a victory slip last week with the Reds winning in the last seconds. Rebels will start off well, but the Tahs should win by at least 12

Lions vs Canes. Lions will have the confidence after their victory last week. The Canes discipline must improve. You cannot play with 13 men. I think that the fly halves of these 2 sides were the 'best' in round 1. The Canes are building a new team & the Lions are on a winning streak. I think it's gonna be a high scoring game with the Lions winning it by 5

Will get to Saturdays games later.

OR, agree with you assessments above......except for the first 2 games i would go woth a little less points difference.

I have Blues by 5, Tahs by 7 and Lions by 4

I have taken an ATC for this weekends games all on the outright price:
Blues 5/10
Tahs 4/10
Saders 9/20
Lions 13/20
Reds 18/100
France 3/10 (Six Nation)

It works out to about 6,7/1 on Hollywood and worth a couple of Rand. (tu)

SA teams always seem to take points off each other so have left the 2 SA derbies.

i think the sharks will do very well against the stormers and that the lions are suspect

Week 2 : Where do the spooks lie in wait for us ?

CHIEFS vs BLUES : Whoa. both sides smarting after last week's defeats. To be fair - the Blues' defeat epitomises what Super Rugby is all about. But for a finger tip they would probably have beaten the Crusaders with that last gasp drop goal.

As much as I would like to predict a Chiefs revival I simply cannot with their pack; which is now also handicapped by injuries. Surely this is a match where you should consider punting the Blues per point ? They don't look likely to lose ( let alone by a big margin ) but they could conceivably put the Chiefs away by far more than 4,5 points.

REBELS vs WARATAHS

Although we have not yet seen the Rebels this season I doubt whether they will pose any more of a threat than they did last season. Importantly Beale is not playing so I think the Waratahs will grind this one out. They should have won last week except for the fact that they made the selfsame mistake that Frans Steyn made in the 2007 Super 14 final by failing to kick the ball dead in the last seconds of the game.

LIONS vs HURRICANES

Neither side is a world beater and both offer sound reasons why they could win.

Visiting sides are usually most vulnerable first time out in SA and then improve in their later games. However - the Hurricanes had the luxury of playing their first match at sea level so have yet to savour the delights of playing at altitude and also lack discipline.

I'm picking the home side - based solely on fitness, home ground and win-under-the-belt confidence - to edge it. However, I think 13/20 is too short to punt them outright so maybe use them in multiples.

HIGHLANDERS vs CRUSADERS

This is the most intruiging game of the weekend. At this point in the season you can label the Highlanders 'very dangerous'. They can and will slug it out with the Crusaders up front. They have done so successfully as recently as last year. And won.

My water tells me Highlanders with the following reservations :

The Highlanders will be playing in their new stadium. Ironically this may be more of an advantage to future visitors than the home side as the stadium is covered. The Highlanders love nothing better than a succession of set pieces and mauls in wet and icy conditions which completely neutralise superior opposing backlines. No more - all games at Dunedin will henceforth be in dry underfoot conditions more suited to expansive games.

Possibly wait until halftime to see how the physic energy is flowing. But a Highlanders win is a distinct possibility if they achieve parity up front. Which they may well do.


REDS vs FORCE

At time of writing I had not seen the Reds lineup. But I expect them to build upon last week and take this one.


CHEETAHS vs BULLS

Should be interesting if only for the place kicking sideshow between the two flyhalves.

Goosen is the real deal so will be looking to show up Morne Steyn's somewhat laboured pretensions at flyhalf.

The Bulls pack look hungry but this is their first game on the road and nobody knows how to match them up front better than the Cheetahs. Nevertheless the Bulls have done pretty well in Bloemfontein in Super Rugby recently. Discipline is going to be an issue so the match may be decided by the boot.

I'm not getting involved in this one only because I will be on my way to Newlands in the second half. But I would back the Cheetahs if I were punting. 13/10 seems eminently fair if the Cheetahs have corrected their lineout woes.

STORMERS vs SHARKS

Although I live in Cape Town I am not a Stormers fan. In fact, I am a fan of no side as it is my intention to try and make money rather than scream myself hoarse. Being a fan impairs judgement and my mantra is : 'You can have the result. I'll have the money'.

The Stormers weren't too flash last week despite what seemed to me like a lot of help from the referee. Pretty much every ruling that could have been debated fell their way. Yet they uncharacteristically leaked tries and, as usual, failed to nail the bonus point try. Inexcusable. Pathetic.

This side is far too unreliable to punt with confidence. I tend to leave them alone or back against them.

Like the Chiefs they seem unfazed about losing at home. Newlands is no fortress. Pack looks even more 'iffy' now that Schalk is out although I am already on record as liking some of the new boys upfront.

If I had to have a bet I would back the Sharks.

Blues by 5 : thought the Blues very unlucky last week. Will be tight but I'm confident here
Waratahs by 8 : I don't give the Rebels much of a chance
Lions by 3 : Impressed by the Lions, hope they can do it
Crusaders by 7 : I have to disagree with you here. Crusaders looking good.
Reds by 4 : The Reds were so lucky to get the points last week but still played a great game
Bulls by 2 : It'll be tough in Bloem but I think the Bulls can pull it off. The warm-up game between them showed the Bulls were different class.
Stormers by 3 : Tough game to call. Could go either way.