SUPER 15 - WEEK BY WEEK

Not a normal Bulls supporter but very happy they were not playing the Sharks tonight in the mood they were in. Great competition winning performance I thought.

Stormers won, but well done Lions. What a performance. They never gave up

Can't wait for next week-end

BLUES vs HURRICANES

Friday started off with a sizzler when the Hurricanes got up in the shadow of the post to short head the Blues.

I did suggest that 50/1 about the Hurricanes to lift the cup seemed a little silly when the market was only prepared to offer 10/1 the Blues.

Those of you who took the 16/10 outright or the Hurricanes +4,5 had to sweat all the way but ended up with the money.

The Blues campaign now looks seriously impaired.

REBELS vs WESTERN FORCE

Although I was dismissive of this match in my preview the actual game was highly entertaining. The Rebels ran up a big lead only to see the Force first haul it in and then overtake it.

Nevertheless you always got the feeling that the head start might ultimately extract its price and the Rebels ran out winners in the end without repeating their last minute loss of the previous week against the Cheetahs.

WARATAHS vs SHARKS

Another cracker. Once the Waratahs discovered that ‘ball in hand’ produces tries they applied the necessary to land the spoils.

The Sharks need to review their defensive structures as they adopt a fatal ‘wait and see’ system which Australian sides will always find easy to exploit.

I thought the referee missed a lot although he allowed the Sharks, in particular, to get away with not releasing the tackled player and incorrect entry into rucks for most of the afternoon.

This Sharks performance was not dissimilar to last weeks’ except that on this occasion the opposition was not decimated by injuries.

CRUSADERS vs CHEETAHS

If you have taken any of the current prices about the Crusaders you have every reason to be concerned. At present they are a pale shadow of the side they used to be and it raises a question : How good a coach is Todd Blackadder? Since he took over the franchise they have won nothing despite having a rich array of talent at their disposal.

It should also be noted that both Dan Carter and Ritchie McCaw ( when he returns ) are in the twilight of their careers and were already showing signs in 2011 of being less than the players they used to be.

The Cheetahs put up another very gutsy performance and can count themselves mildly unlucky not to have escaped with a draw.

Other South African franchises ( in particular the Bulls and Stormers ) need to have a close look at their playing style which graphically illustrates that you score tries and win matches by holding on to the ball instead of aimlessly kicking it away.

BRUMBIES vs HIGHLANDERS

Well organised and determined Brumbies overcame the Highlanders in another hard fought and entertaining struggle.

Highlanders clearly missed Thomson and also seem to be showing signs of fatigue given their all action style of play.

Brumbies continue to improve and showed their narrow loss to the Chiefs last week was no fluke.

BULLS vs REDS

Bulls absolutely murdered an off-colour and weakened Reds side.

Their stand in flyhalf and other sundry replacements were reminiscent of the class of 2007. Totally sub-standard. The rot quickly spread to the remainder of the side who seemed to lose interest and commitment altogether after half time.

Their coach has a problem given their present injury list.

Bulls still look a relatively each touch against better coached sides away from home.

LIONS vs STORMERS

What is it with these Stormers? They must be the only side in Super Rugby who seem to need 153 phases to score a try. It’s like watching someone cracking a peanut with a five pound hammer. Is there nobody in the side who can break a defensive line?

If you were watching as a neutral you would find it hard to believe that they top the log and are the only unbeaten side in the competition.

For the first time this season we had only two ‘away’ wins with the majority of the matches going in favour of the home sides.

Garrick do you think that now that the IRB announced the elite 9 officials ( Test rugby) and Kaplan, Lawrence, Jonker and most of the Super 15 officials not on the list, will have an affect on the handling of the games?

Just wondering

To pick the overall winner for Super 15 this year is so difficult at the moment.....like picking a winner in horse racing in SA:D

Good morning all was at a wedding yesterday but had my first win on rugby as my 5/2 treble arrived , easy game this lol

Ou Ryperd - Kaplan has been at it since about 2000 if my memory serves me correctly. That's 13 years if you take it to the end of this season. Seems to have become quite grumpy in the last few years and this may be counting against him.

Sorry about Lawrence. But he has become almost pedantic recently. But there is no excuse for excluding him from last year's WC panel.

Jonker has never been quite top class so no surprises there. But he certainly seems a lot more relaxed. However - he has always had a whiff surrounding him regarding he supposed 'closeness' to the Bulls.

Certainly this game is not as easy as it first appears. But if you follow FORM you should make a profit. By way of an example - I only called one match wrong over the weekend when some of the results might have looked surprising.

Scotia - Well done on your first win! Now p-l-e-a-s-e don't go and strike precisely the same bet next weekend or you will give it all back.

We have reached that portion of the season where the injuries are starting to spiral upwards. Super Rugby is as much about depth and ‘last man standing’ as it is about the quality of the respective teams.

HIGHLANDERS vs REBELS

With the return of Adam Thomson allied to home ground advantage it is likely that the Highlanders will prevail in this match.

However – I expect it to be a sweaty affair as both James O’Connor ( who almost beat the Cheetahs singlehandedly a fortnight ago ) and fellow Wallaby Kurtley Beale also return to the fold for the Rebels.

Nevertheless the Rebels have been pretty inept away from home so the nod goes to the home side.


HURRICANES vs CHEETAHS

It is tempting to tip the Hurricanes and simply move on. But the visitors boast one from two on tour with the second being an excellent narrow loss to the Crusaders when a draw might have been a fairer reflection of the game.

The playing styles of the Hurricanes and Cheetahs complement each others’ so, at the very least, this should be an entertaining match.

Without too much conviction I give it to the Hurricanes.


CHIEFS vs WARATAHS

The Chiefs are looking strong and come off a break.

The Waratahs are often pretty ineffective in New Zealand. But last week they showed considerable resolve to overturn the Sharks.

My feelings about this match are neutral so I will side with the Chiefs.


BRUMBIES vs SHARKS

With each passing week the Sharks throw bigger and bigger forwards into the fray. This week Jean Deysel is scheduled to return off the bench –giving the visitors great riches amongst the loose forwards.

Sadly they do not seem to have quite the same level of skill amongst the backs. They start without Lambie this weekend – quite a blow despite my suspicion that he has been less than outstanding so far this season.

I like the centre combination of Whitehead & Petersen – possibly the best on form so far.

The forwards speak for themselves although I personally feel they are not the quickest around the park.

Shaping up against them is a vastly improved Brumbies side with Jake White at the helm. This alone will necessitate some creativity from coach Plumtree as White will have a pretty good idea as to what to expect from the Sharks and how to neutralise it.

On balance I am going to side with the Sharks only because the jetlag should be behind them and also because the Brumbies bubble is overdue to be punctured.

WESTERN FORCE vs REDS

I expect the Reds to bounce back emphatically after the train smash performance against the Bulls.

The Western Force just do not have it for me despite home ground advantage and not having to travel.

LIONS vs CRUSADERS

First match off the plane at altitude. Always a big ask for visitors and inevitably the opportunity for home sides to profit.

Talent aplenty the Crusaders may have but their performances to date have been totally unconvincing.

Obviously Carter will help but if the Lions pick up where they left off last week against the Stormers they will run the Crusaders close.

Although logic dictates that the Crusaders should win this one I am going to pick the home side to upset.


STORMERS vs BULLS

Match of the weekend.

In certain quarters the Bulls are being lauded as something special. Why?

Using last week’s Reds match as a ‘line horse’ let’s do a little role reversal to get some perspective :

Bulls travel to NZ to play the Hurricanes & Crusaders. Against the Hurricanes they lose Morne Steyn after the first half when leading 17-0. In the second half they also lose replacement flyhalf Louis Fouche so move Hougaard to flyhalf and lose the match.

They fly over another flyhalf from SA whom they have plucked from Tukkies in the Varsity Cup and pick him against the Crusaders. He has a nightmare first 20 minutes and has to be subbed. The Crusaders wallop the Bulls – whose backs cannot put a move together or put up a decent defence. Are the Crusaders now labelled as world beaters? Probably not . Get the picture?

Digging a little deeper we find the Bulls also caned the porous Cheetahs away but then lost to the Blues at home when, for a change, their goalkicking was sub standard together with their tactical appreciation. In the only other match they made pretty heavy weather of beating a pretty clueless Sharks lineup.

Lined up against them we have a Stormers side that would probably struggle to bank a four try bonus point against 13 men. But who might also deny an opposing side whilst fielding only 13 men in defence!

All things being equal this match has a familiar smell to it : About 80 minutes of the Roman Games or as close as you can get to them in the 21st century. How many long term injuries ? Who knows. But I might like to be playing either side next week if I were a Super Rugby franchise..........

Kick. Thud. Crash. Breakdown. Penalty. Repeat. It will probably be mildly exciting but don’t expect too much subtlety.

In summary I will call it as follows :

If the going is dry the Stormers will win. If it rains the Bulls will win easily. In both cases there will be no shortage of motivation. And for the first time in years the Stormers might prove to have enough mongrel up front to see off the Bulls.

But as I have said before – the Stormers are not trustworthy as punting prospects.

And don’t discount the draw.

The big one. The Derby

Raining in Cape Town at the moment, but according to weather 24, there is little chance of it raining on Saturday evening.

Are the Bulls going to play in the Pink away jersey? There is a lot of hype about it in the press. Management and captain (Stormers) now saying that they are not 'mocking' the Bulls....they are not seeing pink....hulle sien die Bulle.so, it's the fanatical wee pee supporters causing all the hype....a sign, sorry maar ons spot nie?

The Stormers have been playing together for a while now. The Bulls are building. Elstadt as a loosie?? they are worried and are baulking it up.

Gonna be one 'helse' game, but my 'gut' is telling me.....Bulls

But the crowd 'gaan vir hulle gas gee' apparently the most passionate and knowledgeable in the world????? according to some commentaters,......say no more

Highlanders vs Rebels

Rebels have not won in NZ and won't this time. Highlanders by 9 or more

Canes vs Cheetahs

As Garrick said, it should be entertaining. Always big scores between the 2 teams.....my opinion, flip a coin, but think with the Aussie ref, could be Cheetahs, coming home & nothing to loose

Chiefs vs Tahs

The Tha's so far this season did not impress anybody, but beating the Sharks and having the better of the Chiefs 5 years in a row?
I don't like the their boring way of playing rugby.....Chiefs by 6

Brumbies vs Sharks

34 out of 36....victories for the Brumbies against SA sides in Canberra. They have beaten the Sharks 7 out of 8 @ Canberra..coming from a win over the Highlanders, and the Sharks losing in the dying minutes of the game against the Tahs.!!! Pat Lambie is injured, but I feel with Michalak & mcleod anything is possible with Pieterson & co, etc

Brumbies by 3 (The Jake White factor) Hope I'm wrong

Force vs Reds

Perth....the force beat the Reds @ home here in 2009. The Reds have a lot of injuries. Traveling back from SA with a moerse hiding from the Bulls......this game can go either way. Upset, maybe, but I think the Reds by a narrow margin

Lions vs Crusader

This young Lion team!!!!!!! if they can play the way they did in the last 40 min against the Stormers, I predict a upset

Lions by 3

Big score it was and good win for the Cheetas

hibernia Wrote:

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> Big score it was and good win for the Cheetas


Finally came good for me (tu)

Multiple (2 Legs)
Leg 1

RUGBY > SUPER 15(LIONS@HOME)
LIONS vs CRUSADERS
31-Mar-2012 17:05
LIONS / CRUSADERS 0.3 Away
Leg 2

RUGBY > SUPER 15(STORMERS@HOME)
STORMERS vs BULLS
31-Mar-2012 19:10
STORMERS (-7.5) / BULLS (+7.5) 0.5 Away
Stake:
Final Price: 0.95


AND FOR THE BRAVE

ultiple (2 Legs)
Leg 1

RUGBY > SUPER 15(LIONS@HOME)
LIONS vs CRUSADERS
31-Mar-2012 17:05
LIONS (+11.5) / CRUSADERS (-11.5) 1.25 Away
Leg 2

RUGBY > SUPER 15(STORMERS@HOME)
STORMERS vs BULLS
31-Mar-2012 19:10
STORMERS / BULLS 1.5 Away
Stake:
Final Price: 4.63
Potential Payout: 46.25
Min. stake: 1.00


I fancy the Bulls +7.5 at 5-10