SUPER 15 - WEEK BY WEEK

5-10 CRUSADERS (+7.5) - I think the Crusaders can win outright but Loftus is the 16th Bulls player so caution

treble
Leg 1

RUGBY > SUPER 15(HIGHLANDERS@HOME)
HIGHLANDERS vs STORMERS
07-Apr-2012 09:35
HIGHLANDERS (-5.5) / STORMERS (+5.5) 1.6 Home


Leg 2

RUGBY > SUPER 15(CHEETAHS@HOME)
CHEETAHS vs LIONS
07-Apr-2012 15:00
CHEETAHS (-7.5) / LIONS (+7.5) 1 Home


Leg 3

RUGBY > SUPER 15(BULLS@HOME)
BULLS vs CRUSADERS
07-Apr-2012 17:05
BULLS (-7.5) / CRUSADERS (+7.5) 1.5 Home

12-1

double
Leg 1

RUGBY > SUPER 15(HIGHLANDERS@HOME)
HIGHLANDERS vs STORMERS
07-Apr-2012 09:35
HIGHLANDERS (-5.5) / STORMERS (+5.5) 1.6 Home


Leg 2

RUGBY > SUPER 15(CHEETAHS@HOME)
CHEETAHS vs LIONS
07-Apr-2012 15:00
CHEETAHS (-7.5) / LIONS (+7.5) 1 Home

42-10

BEST BET

0.85 HIGHLANDERS outright

Stormers win again. By far the best side in SA if not in the compition now, They deserve to win the cup this year becasue over the past few seasons they have been very good.

REBELS vs BLUES

The Rebels started off the long Easter weekend by producing an enormous form reversal in beating a thoroughly inept Blues side.

Before we get too excited about an admittedly improved Rebels side it might be better to try and work out what has happened to the Blues; who looked to be major contenders for the trophy in 2012 but who now prop up the bottom of the overall table.

It is ironic that the Auckland side was the major beneficiary of player resources from the Hurricanes following on from their ‘cleanout’ at the end of the 2011 season. Certainly neither Nonu nor Weepu have contributed much to the Blues whilst coach Lam’s position must now surely be under deserved threat.

Blues fans will have to accept that their side can be little more than nuisance value for the remainder of the season.


HURRICANES vs SHARKS

Normality returned to the results when the Hurricanes comfortably outpointed the Sharks despite having only about 30% of the possession throughout the match.

As stated before – there are far too many journeymen players – particularly amongst the backs - in this Sharks side. With the exception of Whitehead few of the backs added anything to their highlights reel against the Hurricanes. In particular both wingers were ineffective – Ludik looks short of game time and made a couple of handling and decision errors whilst Mvovo has speed but precious little else. He almost never passes when other players are in a position to benefit and lacks the bulk to force gaps.

The Sharks’ obsession with huge forwards often results in players getting isolated as there is a distinct lack of pace to the breakdown which the more agile Hurricanes exploited ruthlessly.

The Durban side is rapidly taking on the appearance of a mid table also ran for 2012.


REDS vs BRUMBIES

Not an awful lot of skill on display but the Reds managed to get home and, in doing so, bring themselves right back into contention in the Australian conference.

The Brumbies continue to display an inability to be penetrative amongst the backs. The absence of an element of class in either the winger or centre positions now becoming very apparent.



WESTERN FORCE vs CHIEFS

The Force put up a commendably spirited performance against the title chasing Chiefs.

Unfortunately their inability to score ( or create ) tries was once again painfully apparent; allowing the Chiefs to escape with the points.


HIGHLANDERS vs STORMERS

Stormers put up by far their best performance of the season to beat the Highlanders in their own back yard.

Although doubts linger over the ability of their backs to create tries from phased possession they certainly laid to rest any lingering doubts as to the ability of their forwards to front up in tight games.

In the context of this competition this was a defining moment and the Stormers came through with flying colours.

Although not disgraced the Highlanders had no creative solutions to unlocking the impenetrable Stormers defence. The deterioration of their goal kicking played no small role in the loss as they fell further and further behind when the penalties they were awarded could have and should have kept them very much in touch.

Nevertheless it is a timely reminder that the Stormers can now be regarded as live title contenders.


CHEETAHS vs LIONS

Not unexpectedly the Cheetahs disposed of the Lions in Bloemfontein.

They should, however, be kicking themselves for a sloppy second half display when they failed to ram home their superiority and press for a bonus point. Had they done so they would have drawn ahead of the Sharks on points difference. It could yet come back to haunt them later in the season.


BULLS vs CRUSADERS

This match was predicted as likely to be very close. And so it was. The Bulls commendably came back from their traditional slow start and appeared to be cruising to an easy victory with a couple of minutes to play.

It was then that the Crusaders produced virtually the first piece of urgency seen from them so far this season and ran in two quick fire tries. Despite then keeping the ball alive for close to two minutes after the hooter they were unable to produce another score.
This defeat puts a fairly serious dent in their title aspirations and it remains to be seen whether the market will now price them at something reflecting their REALISTIC odds of winning the competition.

Bismarck coming home....eish, getting difficult for the Sharks now

Dan Carter @ centre against the Stormers?

Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Dan Carter, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Tom Taylor, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Tom Donnelly, 3 Ben Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett

Substitutes: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Owen Franks, 18 Luke Romano, 19 Luke Whitelock, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Ryan Crotty, 22 Tom Marshall

Week 8
Blues vs Sharks; There is major emotion in the Blues camp. Racist remarks towards the coach & players and also Mealamu’s comments about an out of shape Weepu, but the visit’s of a few former All Black’s to the camp and the return of the Braid brothers could just lift this team up.
The Sharks have Pat Lambie back. History also suggests that the Sharks have a mental edge over the Blues, but my gut tells me to go with the Blues.

Force vs Warathas; Up and down form for both sides this season. Derrick Barnes could be the pivot in this game. Flip a coin, but I’m going with history here and tip the Tahs

Crusaders vs Stormers; The match of the week-end. Stormers are playing ‘good solid’ rugby and unbeaten after 6. But no bonus points yet. Dan Carter’s move to inside centre will be tempting for Jean de Villiers to attack that channel. Crusaders have beaten the Stormers more often than none and who will forget the semi-final at Newlands last year. They definitely have a mental edge over the Stormers. My head tell’s me, Crusaders

BLUES vs SHARKS

Under normal circumstances the Sharks would visit Auckland, lose and move on..

But normal circumstances no longer exist for the home franchise.

Results to date : Disgraceful. Prospects : Bleak. Intentions : Few or no ideas.

To further muddy the waters ‘expertise’ has been moved into the area to ‘consult’ and ‘advise’. So the next post match loser’s speech might include a sly reference to uncertainty regarding strategy, gameplan and who exactly the coach is.

In order for ANY recovery to take root the Blues need to start hard and fast on Friday as they did in the only match they have won so far this year against the Bulls.

The Sharks have the grunt, the coach and the ability to beat this rabble. All they need to do is prey on the very fragile mental state of the Blues to start the same old cycle all over again.

I’m going to be bold and call the Sharks in this instance.


WESTERN FORCE vs WARATAHS

It’s the Australians who seem to produce the ‘off the radar’ bomb each week.

The Force are at home. Occasionally they play well but usually battle to score tries. The Waratahs are not that penetrative either and can often lapse into a set piece – set piece dwaal.

It’s a derby so I’ll go with the roughie – the Force.


CRUSADERS vs STORMERS

This Crusaders side is no big deal. Although nobody has actually come out and said it I believe the retirement of Brad Thorne has been a HUGE loss to the engine room of this franchise. I will not go so far as to accuse their pack of having become ‘powderpuff’ but I would not be overawed in facing them.

As good as their two wingers and fullback are so also is their midfield some distance off exceptional on attack and downright suspect in defence.

Dan Carter has been restored to where he started at the Crusaders – at centre. Clearly the coach is concerned about the inability of the previous pairing to straighten the line – which Carter does particularly well. But in doing so he is a lot more exposed to big hits. Assuming they were trying to give his injury every opportunity to heal I must question the logic of this move.

What the Crusaders really need to do is replicate their last 10 minutes against the Bulls for the full 80. To be frank – the last time I saw that was against the Sharks at Twickenham over a year ago and, to a lesser extent, against the Stormers in the semis at Newlands.

The Stormers could and should win this one based on form. Whether they are carrying any baggage from previous clashes only the match will tell. They are certainly going into the match with as close to their strongest side as makes no difference.

If it’s dry, if Grant does the goalkicking and if they grind it out I take the Stormers to win.

If it’s wet and the Crusaders strike early then the home side will win.

I’m going to be consistent and remind you that the Stormers are not good punting propositions. But it is difficult not to be seduced by 15/10 – which is what good bookmaking is all about!

Stuck record – Is this where the draw pops up?


BRUMBIES vs REBELS

Brumbies at home. Difficult to oppose even if the Rebels have improved. Which they have.

Brumbies even though the price is unappealing.


CHEETAHS vs CHIEFS

The Chiefs march on. I almost added ‘relentlessly’ but they haven’t actually been much more than efficient rather than spectacular.

Here is the opportunity for the Cheetahs to prick their bubble. They are at least as effective up front but need to shore up a defence which can be a tad lax at times.

Goosen needs to be on form with the boot. The remainder need to make the Chiefs suffer a little on the hard, bouncy surface.

I like this Cheetahs side. I fancy their chances here. And NZ sides are very wary of them at present.


LIONS vs BULLS

The short drive down from Pretoria hardly qualifies as an ‘away’ game.

Bulls are looking strong but this is a derby. Lions fans are back to living in hope and not very much more.

In the Lions’ slight favour is the fact that Morne Steyn is not quite the consistently deadly points machine of old – particularly away from Loftus.

Simply because I cannot depend on the Lions to produce the 80 minutes goods I am selecting the Bulls. But I would not be even mildly surprised if the home side fluked it.

Garrick Wrote:

---

> BLUES vs SHARKS
>
> Under normal circumstances the Sharks would visit
> Auckland, lose and move on..

Last five results
26 Feb 2011 Blues v Sharks 12-26 Durban
24 Apr 2010 Blues v Sharks 10-23 Durban
07 Mar 2009 Blues v Sharks 31-35 Auckland
08 Mar 2008 Blues v Sharks 17-22 Durban
12 May 2007(Semi) Blues v Sharks 18-34 Durban

Blues overall record against the Sharks
Played 15 , Wins 4, Losses 11 , Draws 0


>
> But normal circumstances no longer exist for the
> home franchise.
>
> Results to date : Disgraceful. Prospects : Bleak.
> Intentions : Few or no ideas.
>
> To further muddy the waters ‘expertise’ has
> been moved into the area to ‘consult’ and
> ‘advise’. So the next post match loser’s
> speech might include a sly reference to
> uncertainty regarding strategy, gameplan and who
> exactly the coach is.
>
> In order for ANY recovery to take root the Blues
> need to start hard and fast on Friday as they did
> in the only match they have won so far this year
> against the Bulls.
>
> The Sharks have the grunt, the coach and the
> ability to beat this rabble. All they need to do
> is prey on the very fragile mental state of the
> Blues to start the same old cycle all over again.
>
> I’m going to be bold and call the Sharks in this
> instance.
>
>
> WESTERN FORCE vs WARATAHS
>
> It’s the Australians who seem to produce the
> ‘off the radar’ bomb each week.
>
> The Force are at home. Occasionally they play well
> but usually battle to score tries. The Waratahs
> are not that penetrative either and can often
> lapse into a set piece – set piece dwaal.
>
> It’s a derby so I’ll go with the roughie –
> the Force.
>
>
> CRUSADERS vs STORMERS
>
> This Crusaders side is no big deal. Although
> nobody has actually come out and said it I believe
> the retirement of Brad Thorne has been a HUGE loss
> to the engine room of this franchise. I will not
> go so far as to accuse their pack of having become
> ‘powderpuff’ but I would not be overawed in
> facing them.
>
> As good as their two wingers and fullback are so
> also is their midfield some distance off
> exceptional on attack and downright suspect in
> defence.
>
> Dan Carter has been restored to where he started
> at the Crusaders – at centre. Clearly the coach
> is concerned about the inability of the previous
> pairing to straighten the line – which Carter
> does particularly well. But in doing so he is a
> lot more exposed to big hits. Assuming they were
> trying to give his injury every opportunity to
> heal I must question the logic of this move.
>
> What the Crusaders really need to do is replicate
> their last 10 minutes against the Bulls for the
> full 80. To be frank – the last time I saw that
> was against the Sharks at Twickenham over a year
> ago and, to a lesser extent, against the Stormers
> in the semis at Newlands.
>
> The Stormers could and should win this one based
> on form. Whether they are carrying any baggage
> from previous clashes only the match will tell.
> They are certainly going into the match with as
> close to their strongest side as makes no
> difference.
>
> If it’s dry, if Grant does the goalkicking and
> if they grind it out I take the Stormers to win.
>
> If it’s wet and the Crusaders strike early then
> the home side will win.
>
> I’m going to be consistent and remind you that
> the Stormers are not good punting propositions.
> But it is difficult not to be seduced by 15/10 –
> which is what good bookmaking is all about!
>
> Stuck record – Is this where the draw pops up?
>
>
> BRUMBIES vs REBELS
>
> Brumbies at home. Difficult to oppose even if the
> Rebels have improved. Which they have.
>
> Brumbies even though the price is unappealing.
>
>
> CHEETAHS vs CHIEFS
>
> The Chiefs march on. I almost added
> ‘relentlessly’ but they haven’t actually
> been much more than efficient rather than
> spectacular.
>
> Here is the opportunity for the Cheetahs to @#$%&
> their bubble. They are at least as effective up
> front but need to shore up a defence which can be
> a tad lax at times.
>
> Goosen needs to be on form with the boot. The
> remainder need to make the Chiefs suffer a little
> on the hard, bouncy surface.
>
> I like this Cheetahs side. I fancy their chances
> here. And NZ sides are very wary of them at
> present.
>
>
> LIONS vs BULLS
>
> The short drive down from Pretoria hardly
> qualifies as an ‘away’ game.
>
> Bulls are looking strong but this is a derby.
> Lions fans are back to living in hope and not very
> much more.
>
> In the Lions’ slight favour is the fact that
> Morne Steyn is not quite the consistently deadly
> points machine of old – particularly away from
> Loftus.
>
> Simply because I cannot depend on the Lions to
> produce the 80 minutes goods I am selecting the
> Bulls. But I would not be even mildly surprised if
> the home side fluked it.

Got home just in time to see thr blues score a try from an illegal scrum where the prop was on his knees and the flank kicking it back when not binding onto the scrum! Pirates thinks the players are too stupid to know the rules but what about the ref and assistant refs!

Craig Eudey Wrote:

---

> Got home just in time to see thr blues score a try
> from an illegal scrum where the prop was on his
> knees and the flank kicking it back when not
> binding onto the scrum! Pirates thinks the players
> are too stupid to know the rules but what about
> the ref and assistant refs!


Craig now how about Whitehead's blatent knock on. Incompetent refs like Steve Welsh are killing the game. (td)

more skill in david beckhams left toe than a whole rugby team...game for unskilled simpletons