So that was the weekend action :
CHIEFS vs BRUMBIES
Nailbiter. Not in my wildest dreams could I have predicted that the Brumbies would run the Chiefs as close as they did.
I actually thought they were unlucky to lose.
If you took 1/6 about the Chiefs you certainly earned the 16% return on your money.
For one moment I thought my draw prediction was about to be realised.
STORMERS vs BLUES
Another h-o-r-r-i-b-l-e game of rugby involving a South African side.
The Blues looked thoroughly disinterested for much of the match. Their senior All Blacks, in particular, were petulant and ineffective.
Stormers youngsters continue to impress.
Detected a bit of a flutter when the Blues decided to play and scored two quick, late tries.
I guessed totally wrong but remain unconvinced by the home side.
HURRICANES vs HIGHLANDERS
I have to repeat that the Highlanders are the current FORM Super 15 side. At the very least you should have mopped up 12/1 or 10/1 long term.
Although the match was tight the Highlanders always appeared most likely. As matches between these two sides historically average a winning margin of 1 point the Highlanders won by an historically wide margin!
I have now seen enough of the Otago franchise to believe that they can go all the way to the playoffs this year.
Nothing much wrong with the Hurricanes either. At home they will roll more than they lose to.
WARATAHS vs WESTERN FORCE
Spook. Bomb. Call it what you will – the force delivered a blow to the Waratahs comparable to the Cheetahs victory over the same franchise a year ago.
Good luck to them. But don’t expect them to repeat the procedure too often. Except when at home to their 'bunnies' - the Crusaders!
SHARKS vs REDS
I have repeatedly advocated sports betting because there are fewer variables likely to upset your calculations.
One issue which all punters need to be cogniscent of is WEATHER. The other uncontrolled variables in rugby are yellow or red cards and injuries.
The Sharks were grateful beneficiaries of all three in the late match on Saturday evening.
Let’s ignore the yellow card as that was self inflicted. But the Reds were on track – despite the weather – for an easy victory when a spate of injuries deprived them of pivotal players. Most notable losses were both flyhalf options; who also served as their goal kickers.
Having racked up 17 unanswered points against a strong wind the Reds were on track for a comfortable victory. But injuries to their major playmakers conspired against them and they turned at halftime with a reduced lead and minus the skills set required to control the territory and convert goal kicking opportunities into points.
I can only conclude that this Sharks side is willing but rubbish. I would suggest you now grab the opportunity to back the Reds long term as they showed more than enough on Saturday to suggest they will be there when it counts. Remember – Quade Cooper will also return later in the campaign.................
REBELS vs CHEETAHS
This gets my nomination as the most entertaining match of the weekend.
It’s a pity the Cheetahs usually battle to maintain concentration and discipline as they play the most positive rugby of all the South African franchises. I also question their conditioning as they almost always struggle in the final quarter.
Nevertheless both of these sides contributed to a memorable match.
Once again I thought they were headed towards a ( now very overdue ) draw. But credit to the Cheetahs. After earlier looking to be odds on for another unecessary narrow defeat they kept the ball alive for two pulsating minutes after the hooter had sounded to score a magnificent try and clinch the points.
This side is better than it believes itself to be. It has the skills to perform at a level about equivalent to the Highlanders. Such a pity that it so often lies down and dies without a whimper after establishing an early lead.
SUMMARY : Week four followed an identical pattern to weeks 1, 2 and 3. Four home wins and three away wins. But finding the win 'away' for the Western Force was the killer which should have stuck pretty much everyone out!
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-D