SUPER 15 - WEEK BY WEEK

the Bulls must hope for the Blues to fade over the last 20 mins

I am back to horse racing

The Crusaders kicked off the weekend’s activities by confirming my uneasy ‘pre-race feeling’ and losing.

Excuses are not in order as they were well and truly beaten on merit. But their playing style did reveal something about their coaching which needs to be addressed.

At this early stage sides which are enjoying success are committing players in numbers to the breakdowns and blowing over the top. The Highlanders and Chiefs, in particular, are enjoying a lot of success with this tactic. The Crusaders traditionally commit fewer players to these breakdowns and are presently both battling to hold on to possession in addition to winning few or no turnovers from which they normally launch their counterattacks.

Friday’s loss is material as it was a home game. Carter, in particular, cannot return soon enough to shore up both the goal kicking and tactical deficiencies.

If the Crusaders are not trading at 4/1 on Monday there should be a steward’s enquiry. Based on performances to date they are dubious value.

The Hurricanes turned in another sound performance in beating the totally toothless Force. The less said about the home side the better as they gave little indication of any ‘heart’ or an ability to score tries.

Despite travelling back from South Africa and playing in 30+ degree heat the Hurricanes showed an astonishing level of energy and actually outlasted the home side. At the moment it’s a case of ‘old heads’ guiding the ‘young ones’ and they are doing an excellent job of it.

The Cheetahs can feel justifiably aggrieved at losing their match against the Brumbies. They were repeatedly penalised for ‘going early’ in the tight scrums when, to my eye, it was the home side beating the ‘engage’ call at almost every scrum. Nevertheless the visitors did seem to sit on their lead for the last 20 minutes and paid the price for the drop off in endeavour.

The Highlanders edged the Waratahs in an absolute slugfest in Dunedin. The visitors can blame themselves for not winning as they do seem to lack ‘attacking intent’ for large portions of the matches that they contest.

On the other hand the Highlanders battered themselves to a virtual standstill and just managed to get up. It’s a long time since I’ve seen BOTH packs of forwards staggering legless with fully 20 minutes still to play.

My concern for both sides is that this match will have taken something out of them both which their next opponents may well profit from.

The Reds showed more arse than class in their win over the Rebels. The latter improved out of sight from their opening fixture but simply cannot buy a try. Nevertheless you have to admire the Reds for always playing as if they expected to win. And did. They are starting to look like ‘good things’ to contest the playoffs.

The Sharks beat a gutsy Lions side somewhat denuded by injuries. The hosts continue to produce a listless, error ridden and ugly type of rugby. I am starting to think that they have too many journeyman players and too few rising stars. I find it difficult to imagine that they will be competitive unless they dramatically up their game.

At Loftus we ended up learning that nothing changes. Blunt the Bulls up front and you quickly discover that they do not have a plan B. They rely almost exclusively on strength, power and intimidation to subjugate opposing sides. Despite being alarmingly undisciplined the Blues offered gritty determination, sleight of hand and ball carrying skills which suggested that the Bulls are well named – they are basically oxen.

After 3 rounds South African fans have every reason to feel concerned. There is a startling lack of skill on display from local sides. ‘Kick and charge’ has become the only tactic outside of the rolling maul. Even goal kicking has become decidedly ordinary. Certainly none of our sides show any glimpse of being likely to win overseas when they bump the leading contenders on their travels.

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Thanks Garrick. Spot on.

Morne Steyn will NOT play for the Bokke after tonight. He just looked totally lost/

Imo only the Reds can prevent a Kiwi side from winning this year's competition - the Chiefs and Hurricanes have surprised most of us with classy displays - and maybe thay have the most 'gamebreakers' in their sides - I think the Crusaders will improve and can't be ruled out, while the Highlanders despite a bright start may start to fade imo

The Aussie sides with the exception of the Reds will not feature imo and I agree with Garrick that our local boys look a little clueless - I thought the Lions deserved a better outcome than the scoreboard showed (could have sworn that the try just before halftime was not a try) and with 5 minutes to go it was still anyone's game - but for a stray pass the result could easily have been a draw - and I think the Lions will improve the most out of our lot - but I'm looking through rose tinted glasses. The Bulls only started playing when the game was lost - but did show in the last 10 minutes that they can play some good rugby - not totally without a chance of making the play-offs imo

BACK NZ to win the TRI Nations now -

For those interested......Sport24.....as I await Garricks input

Chiefs v Brumbies (Hamilton) - 08:35

Odds: Chiefs 9/50 and Brumbies 4/1
Despite enticing odds from Bet.co.za for a Brumbies win, the Men from Canberra will be up against it in Hamilton against the unbeaten Chiefs. The Brumbies actually have a good record in Hamilton, winning three out of six, but with form men like Robbie Robinson, Brodie Retallick, Ben Tameifuna and Arizona Taumalolo - most of whom are new to this level - in the Chiefs side, it is hard to bet against the home side. The Brumbies are a typical Jake White-coached side - strong on their basics (especially defence) - and they will be looking to play the game in the Chiefs' half and benefit from any errors...

Stormers v Blues (Cape Town) - 19:10

Odds: Stormers 3/5 and Blues 13/10
Despite their heroics at Loftus Versfeld last weekend, Bet.co.za still has the Stormers as favourites. Oddly, the Stormers have a poor record in Cape Town against the Blues - losing four games and winning just two since 1998. (The last Blues win over the Stormers came in Cape Town in 2009.) The Stormers have a settled team, despite being without captain Schalk Burger, and they will be wary of the Blues after their win over the Bulls. Piri Weepu and Ma'a Nonu add plenty to this Blues team - just ask Gareth Anscombe - but being without Jerome Kaino (for the rest of the season) could cost them.

Saturday's action:

Hurricanes v Highlanders (Wellington) - 08;35

Odds: Hurricanes 1/1 and Highlanders 4/5
The Highlanders have made an excellent start to their 2012 campaign - beating the Chiefs (away), the Crusaders and the Waratahs (both at home) and Bet.co.za has rightly instilled them as favourites ahead of this all-NZ Conference clash. The 'Canes will be confident after their big win over the Force - in Perth - and seem to be playing as a team; unlike last year...

Waratahs v Force (Sydney) - 10:40

Odds: Waratahs 4/25 and Force 9/2
Bet.co.za are offering very appetising odds for a Force win, but can they really bounce back from last week's heavy 19-46 home loss to the 'Canes? One would have to assume no - aside from David Pocock's performance there was very little on offer from the Men from Perth.

Sharks v Reds (Durban) - 17:05

Odds: Sharks 7/10 and Reds 11/10
According to Bet.co.za the Sharks are the favourites - as one would assume in Durban - plus the Reds have not hit their straps thus far in 2012. Durban and Brisbane climates are about as similar as one could get, but jet-lag could be an issue for the visitors, who were not impressive at all in their 11-6 win over the Rebels last weekend.

Sunday's action:

Rebels v Cheetahs (Melbourne) - 07:10

Odds: Rebels 9/20 and Cheetahs 9/5
The Cheetahs will still be pretty gutted with last weekend's gutting - and unfair - 23-24 reversal in Canberra. Can they raise themselves - even without Coenie Oosthuizen who is under an injury could. Bet.co.za's odds are appealing for a Cheetahs win... but with ball-players like James O'Connor, Mark Gerrard and Kurtley Beale can you really afford to write the home side off?

The Bulls, Lions & Crusaders having a break & collecting their 4 points

Chiefs to beat Brumbies & the Tahs the Force....the rest of the games can go either way

Will the rugby throw up as many spooks as Cheltenham?

Using the season’s form-to-date we should be looking for three ‘away’ sides winning. Wow – that looks difficult.

But let’s start with a question first : Was that Ou Ryperd venting on Kevin Mealamu at the end of the Bulls match last Saturday? Goyougoodthing!

CHIEFS vs BRUMBIES

I am battling to see how any of the Australian sides will cope with NZ opposition away from home this season.

Forget 1/6 the Chiefs although they do look good things for a win.

STORMERS vs BLUES

Stormers are traditionally poor after a bye. Strangely they have done well in Auckland against the same side!

I am going to stick with my overall prognosis of the Stormers : Unreliable. I also have a shocking record with sides priced up at 5/10.

Take this with a pinch of salt as it is pure guesswork : Blues.

HURRICANES vs HIGHLANDERS

I am following the Highlanders until they are beaten. I think they will beat the Hurricanes with the following reservation : They really had to empty out against the Waratahs last week and may be going into this game less than fully refreshed.

Conversely the Hurricanes might also still have to shake off the effects of their overseas tour.

Be warned if you fancy the Hurricanes : This is their first outing against NZ opposition. The advantage that their ‘no name brand’ players had at the start of the tournament is rapidly evaporating. They were confidently viewed as the weakest of the NZ franchises at the beginning of the season – which may still be true.

Whichever side you prefer – this is a match well worth a punt dependent upon your preference. 8/10 Highlanders looks pretty juicy to me.

WARATAHS vs WESTERN FORCE

Despite being beaten twice already the Waratahs look a solid combination. The Force look poor.

Waratahs to win.


SHARKS vs REDS

13/20 Sharks? Not for me, folks. The Reds are championship material. They are fortunate to play their first match in SA at sea level which I always believe to be a material advantage to visiting sides.

Unless the Sharks produce an integrated, measured and organised performance they could well get beaten. ‘Wham, bam, crashball’ is not going to succeed against the Reds who can also tough it out – as they proved away from home against the Waratahs.

The longer I look at this match the better 14/10 Reds appears.

REBELS vs CHEETAHS

If both sides produce similar performances to last week then this is a coin toss.

If you are prepared to agree that this is a coin toss then 15/10 Cheetahs is a great price.

One swallow does not make a summer so.........would you have been prepared to believe that the Rebels would play as well as they did last week? And be priced up 6/10 the following week? I don’t think so. Also remember that last week was a derby game which has a different dynamic when compared to playing an SA or NZ opponent.

Go Cheetahs.

Blues, Highlanders, Reds & Cheetahs are my contenders for the ‘away’ wins. Clearly I have it wrong with one of them if the trend continues.

No Sir, not guilty, I'm a mountain goat....according to (Gregbucks)

I am under quarantine in the Cape colony

Thanks Garrick

mpl

Chiefs
Blues
Highlanders
Tahs
Reds
Cheethas

@ 50/1 .....wow a small nibble there guys

Brumbies
Blues
Canes
Tahs
Sharks
Cheetahs

My fancies this week