Before we look at the first round of the playoff series it is worth reflecting on the reality that, for the first time since the inception of Super Rugby, we have gone through a full season without a draw.
That’s quite remarkable given that the round robin ( which historically offered FEWER matches ) used to throw up 3-4 draws each season! So much for statistics.
Two South African sides have winged their way overseas. Both look suspiciously like sacrificial lambs but lets look at the two eliminators :
CRUSADERS (Long Term 22/10) 1/5 vs BULLS (Long Term 20/1) 4/1
The whole world knows how effective the Crusaders have traditionally been in playoff matches. But is that really relevant? The Bulls should be focusing on the fact that they have blown hot and cold this season with a defeat against the Melbourne Rebels probably the lowlight.
Much the same could probably be said ( with the wisdom of hindsight ) about the Bulls’ loss to the Auckland Blues.
On the balance of probability is seems unlikely that the Bulls will win. But there are a couple of issues which should give them hope if not quiet optimism :
The ‘new’ AMI stadium is not nearly the fortress that the previous venue was. In fact the Crusaders have had to pull out all the stops on more than one occasion this season to win there.
Dan Carter’s goal kicking has been less than deadly on more than one occasion. If he is wayward on Saturday morning it might prove fatal.
The absence of Kieran Read is more significant than most New Zealander’s would care to admit.
There have been occasions this season where their midfield has been brittle whilst their front row has ranged between awesome and surprisingly disjointed.
The biggest obstacle facing the Bulls is their own game plan. It is clear what they will do. They will kick and chase. What the Crusaders make of this possession we have yet to see. But if the kicking is wayward the nett results are likely to be ugly for the Bulls.
There are other concerns : In broken play the Bulls’ defence has been leaky. Hougaard’s service to his flyhalf is often slow and erratic if the pressure is on. Steyn’s goalkicking has also been wayward on some occasions this season outside of Loftus. I question the Bulls’ front row and am disappointed that they did not find a starting place for CJ Stander; who I believe would be better suited to the likely war of attrition than Dewald Potgieter.
The market has the Crusaders at 1/5. I find it difficult to argue with that.
REDS (Long Term 8/1) 11/20 vs SHARKS (Long Term 14/1) 16/10
I rate the Sharks’ chances of progressing better than the Bulls’. On paper. Regrettably matches are not played on paper or I would be a millionaire.
They certainly have the grunt to take this match. Quade Cooper’s absence is a real bonus to the visitors although Lambie is a loss to the Sharks.
Clearly the Sharks are going to attempt to strangle the life out of the Reds pack given the forwards that they have selected. Good and well. But the Reds are probably the only Australian franchise that is bloody minded enough to mix it up front. A point that they proved quite conclusively against the Stormers last season at Newlands en route to winning the Super 15.
For me the crucial difference between these two sides is at coaching level. McKenzie makes Plumtree look like a plodder.
Add Suncorp to the mix and , at best, you have to rate the Sharks’ chances no better than 40/60.
Both sides field players with the X factor. The scrumhalf clash should be worth the price of entry on its own.
Regrettably I suspect that the Sharks will be a lot more muted away from home and, with Frans Steyn also absent from their midfield, somewhat soft in their underbelly given that their French flyhalf is also vulnerable in the inside channel.
Despite these deficiencies this may well be a game decided by a disciplinary lapse – something that both sides are well capable of.
I take the Reds to progress to the next leg and still rate them the ‘spook’ selection to lift the cup.
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