SUPER 15 BETTING

Don't know what the odds were (in play bet) when the Sharks were down 17 points....at half time I told my friend that a bet on the Sharks to win would be a good bet (not knowing the odds) on the form they showed 10 min before the break

I did not take a bet, but there is money to be made

Wagering on sport is a dynamic process, Ou Ryperd. If you persist in having a punt and then sit down in front of the TV with your thumb up your bum and a beer in the other hand you will be guaranteed to miss out on mouthwatering opportunities.

On form you HAD to take 14/10 the Reds before the match and then trade later if necessary.

So your instincts at halftime were 100% correct. You should have emptied out on on your opinion.

Word of warning : Make a habit of backing SA sides who are behind at halftime and I will soon be visiting you in the poorhouse!

I missed out and yes will take your advise re SA teams(tu)

There have been betting movements in the last week which can best be described as bizarre. In many instances I find it difficult to swallow that these changes can be attributed to demand or market forces. Many of them appear to be crude attempts by the oddsmakers to anticipate demand rather than react to it :

Blues 10/1 May end up being skinny but is a realistic adjustment based on form.
Brumbies 50/1 Unchanged. Market remains unimpressed despite relatively sound form.
Bulls 14/1 Bit of value starting to creep in. But how good are they really?
Cheetahs 150/1 About right.
Chiefs 8/1 Starting to look like runners but yet to impress market.
Crusaders 33/10 Laughable based on form. Last won competition in 2008. Factors in the win against the Cheetahs.
Highlanders 8/1 Quite generous – should be 7/1 in my opinion.
Hurricanes 50/1 Would not be an act of madness to back this side at this price. They look like 20/1 shots to me.
Lions 100/1 Bit skinny. No better than Cheetahs on a good day.
Rebels 150/1 Why no 500/1 offers any longer on any Super 15 roughies?
Reds 5/1 About right. Much better value than Crusaders at almost 100% better odds.
Sharks 12/1 Why did they shorten? Struggled to beat a side without a backline last week.
Stormers 6/1 Probably about right but don’t expect to collect.
Waratahs 14/1 About right. Play Bulls rugby without the flair if you get my drift.
W Force 100/1 Have already produced the season’s upset. Unlikely to repeat.


Odds which make sense this weekend :

Hurricanes at 50/1. If they beat the Blues they will contract sharply.

Highlanders at 8/1. Still juice left.

Bulls at 14/1. But they won’t win the competition.


BEWARE THE DRAW. HOPELESSLY OVERDUE.

Attached files zzzSuper Rugby Betting.docx (18 KB)Â

Garrick Wrote:
>
> BEWARE THE DRAW. HOPELESSLY OVERDUE.

Close. both games won by 1 point

Guys - here's some homework for you for next Friday :

Look at the long term betting. Now forget the last week's results because you get caught by them everytime.

Then let me have your recommendations as to where the VALUE lies in your opinions. And we''ll debate it in the week ahead.

I will try a few draws next week the Bulls were 10/1 his morning and now 9/1 on offer have taken some, heart ruling the brain?

Garrick, I think the teams with depth will be in the play offs. But as you said, let;s debate this next week. If only all the team's had the believe like the Brumbies & Lions, cause I think that is what keep them going...no big names, just playing for each other and enjoying the game

scotia Wrote:

---

> I will try a few draws next week the Bulls were
> 10/1 his morning and now 9/1 on offer have taken
> some, heart ruling the brain?


Scotia, they have cost me money.....for that very same reason:D I have lost a good few bottles of Kanonkop pinotage

Scotia - Why do you want to take 9/1 or 10/1 the Bulls today and not 14/1 last Friday? Or are you assuming that they will win in Cape Town next Saturday? That's brave! You can almost always start with a clean form sheet when the Bulls play the Stormers in Cape Town.

Remember - the Bulls have still to travel. Eish. Look for value in the teams that have ALREADY travelled and have fewer away games to play.

eg The Blues, Hurricanes and Reds

Frontrunners at present are the following :

South Africa : Stormers and Bulls BUT neither have travelled.

Australia : Brumbies (!) and Reds

NZ : Possibly all of them with the exception of the Blues.


You then have to accept that Aus teams probably do have the 'easiest' conference so qualifying at the top of their conference includes home and away to the Force and Rebels - which most class sides should beat. Including the bye this represents up to 24 points!

So if you are looking to build stock and then trade out later the Aus conference is possibly the best place to do it.

Garrick forgot how good the Bulls were, no trading this is to win the compo

Read these comments in conjunction with the download :


Blues – About right based on form but is anyone interested?
Brumbies – Juice in 33/1 if they beat the Sharks
Bulls – Beat a blind school lineup last week. 8/1 is skinny even if they beat the Stormers.
Cheetahs – About right.
Chiefs – Quite appealing.
Crusaders – 28/10 Just plain stupid. Shortened after scraping home against the Cheetahs!!!!!
Highlanders – Quite appealing but depends on how quickly injured players return.
Hurricanes – Oddsmakers still doesn’t quite ‘get’ this side. 50/1 last week was a gift but even 33/1 has some appeal.
Lions – Amazed that anyone could back this side to win the Super 15.
Rebels – Ditto. Should be 500/1 no matter what.
Reds – Value at 8/1. Take the 10/1 on offer from some outlets. They ain’t dead yet.
Sharks – Price being artificially supported by lunatic fringe from Durban.
Stormers – About right.
Waratahs – A tad skinny but possibly correct.
Western Force – See Rebels

Pick Of The Weekend – 10/1 Reds if you can get it.

8/10 Reds vs Western Force


WHERE IS THE DRAW?

Attached files zzzSuper Rugby Betting.docx (16.7 KB)Â