SUPER 15 BETTING

There are some fascinating developments in the Super 15 betting market. Shrewd operators have a number of options open to them and/or opportunities to set the stage for a real cleanup later in the competition.

Firstly – last week ‘normality’ returned with 4 home wins and 3 away wins. With the exception of Week 5 this has been the outcome each weekend. You just need to find the correct 4/3 split!

Week 5 All To Come worked out at 60/1 – pretty reasonable odds considering there are only 3 ‘runners’ in each leg and the draw is usually only a 5% probability.

To illustrate the long term market and its potential for serious fluctuations hereunder find the following information in the following sequence :

Team, shortest price, biggest price, prognosis for the future.

Blues: 5/16 : Pretty ragged at present. Need to show massive improvement. Poorly coached IMO.

Brumbies : 33/50 : Contenders in their conference. Upset potential only.

Bulls : 8/14 : Market waited for Scotia to go in before drifting them! Lol. Conference contenders but still to travel. Impressive in defeat against Stormers.

Cheetahs : 50/200 : Play great rugby but short of personnel needed to be competitive. But SA Rugby should pay attention to their blueprint.

Chiefs : 16/6 : Solid showing so far. Certainly looking more likely than Crusaders at present!

Crusaders 5/2/ 7/2 : Bookies friend? Remain very short despite showing little to suggest they WILL win as opposed to CAN win.

Highlanders : 33/8 : Season’s bolter. Possible season defining weekend ahead when they meet Stormers.

Hurricanes: 50/33 : Better than rated by market but a little lacking in experience up front.

Lions : 200/50 : Not in the game.

Rebels : 200/50 : Making up numbers.

Reds 9/2 /16 : Be very careful here. Crippled by injury at present but class players will return. Could still top Australian conference which may gift them an entry ticket to final rounds at a MASSIVE price. Take 20/1 if you can get it.

Sharks : 20/12: : A lot of grunt and not much skill. Attritional style unlikely to succeed against smarter opposition.

Stormers : 10/ 9/2 : Good defence allied to no attacking ideas. Better BMT this season but true test starts now. Too short.

Waratahs : 16/10 : May progress on the basis of their weak conference but do not look to be contenders despite a multitude of players on the sidelines through injury.

Western Force : 200 / 66 : Even conservative bookmakers not worried.

Attached files zzzSuper Rugby Betting.docx (19.2 KB)Â

Last week the all to come returned 93/1 although finding the Rebels in the first leg might have required chemical assistance!


Blues – Unlikely to do a Lazarus act. 40/1 is frankly mean.

Brumbies – Compared only to the 40/1 on offer for the Blues this is quite generous as it is not inconceivable that they might make the playoffs. I’m surprised as they seem lively candidates to get past the Rebels this weekend.

Bulls – At 6/1 they are probably too short to punt now when you consider that you could have mopped up 14/1 in week 5. It bothers me that they still have to travel so opportunity may beckon again later.

Cheetahs – 66/1. In from 200/1 a week ago which one might construe as an over reaction. Is this the oddsmakers telling me that a win over the Chiefs is on the cards? Hmmmmmm.

Chiefs – 6/1. Probably right. May not change much even if they win in Bloemfontein.

Crusaders – 28/10. Yawn. On form should be about 9/2 IMO. If they bomb against the Stormers this artificially stingy price is likely to drift like a barge. At long last.

Highlanders – 12/1. Down from 8/1 but far from out. Tempting when you compare against the Crusaders!

Hurricanes – 40/1. Interestingly the market really doesn’t ‘buy’ this team. No reason why not as they are a solid side.

Lions – 300/1. Slowly heading towards the price they should have been since the beginning – 500/1.

Rebels – 150/1. Showing a bit of swagger but unlikely to threaten.

Reds – 12/1. Irrespective as to the outcome of the tournament you need to be sent back to punting school if you didn’t snap up the 20/1 available in some quarters last week. Be interesting to see which of the injured and/or suspended players return next week after the bye. VERY live Australian conference contender.

Sharks – 20/1 don’t get too excited even if they beat the Blues.

Stormers – 7/2 Should be favourites if they beat the Crusaders. And about time too.

Waratahs – 20/1 Might threaten Reds as Australian conference contenders. But probably not real overall competition runners.

Western Force – 150/1 – Not for me. Shouldn’t be for you either!

Attached files [url=http:///wp-content/uploads/attachments/265603=784-zzzSuper Rugby Betting[1].docx]zzzSuper Rugby Betting[1].docx[/url] (17.2 KB)Â

(3 Legs)
Leg 1

RUGBY > SUPER 15(CRUSADERS@HOME)
CRUSADERS vs STORMERS
14-Apr-2012 09:35
CRUSADERS / STORMERS 0.55 Home
Leg 2

RUGBY > SUPER 15(CHEETAHS@HOME)
CHEETAHS vs CHIEFS
14-Apr-2012 17:05
CHEETAHS (+5.5) / CHIEFS (-5.5) 1.55 Away
Leg 3

RUGBY > SUPER 15(LIONS@HOME)
LIONS vs BULLS
14-Apr-2012 19:10
LIONS (+12.5) / BULLS (-12.5) 1.25 Away
Stake:
Final Price: 7.89

Best 20% return on your money Bulls to win

6/10 half time full time Bulls

the Stomers will lose

scotia Wrote:

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> 6/10 half time full time Bulls


The .24 outright is my Bet Of The Year

Dagg is putting pressure on his team with poor kicking

The Chettahs will be beaten very easily !!

mr hawaii Wrote:

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> The Chettahs will be beaten very easily !!


With Strauss & Goosen( on the wood) missing.....think you are right

they played very well but class came through - just wish Williams would take more control

the Bulls are going to murder the poor Lions

mr hawaii Wrote:

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> the Bulls are going to murder the poor Lions


The Lions tried8-)