SUPER 15 BETTING

After 3 weeks it's worth revisiting some of the betting trends and market movements.

21 games have been played to date. On each weekend 4 of those matches have been won by the home side whilst 3 have been won by the away side. A trend appears to be developing whereby it is becoming 'easier' to win away from home.

The biggest price of a winner has been 22/10 on three occasions. The Highlanders have now won twice at that price and the Blues once. 22/10 in a three horse race where the draw is usually 25/1. Wow!

The shortest price about a winning favourite has been 1/7 when the Reds toiled to beat the Rebels.

The competition usually throws up between 3-4 draws. Historically they have involved competition hotshots against cellar dwellers. The 'difficult to decide' games seldom produce draws.

For those of you who like exotics you could have got the following odds on 7 leg all-to-comes in the last three weeks :

Week 1 - The seven winners were on offer at 82/1
Week 2 - The seven winners were on offer at 86/1
Week 3 - The seven winners were on offer at 57/1

It's definitely worth stringing together your individual all to comes even if you leave out selected legs where you are unsure.

I have included an attachment showing price movements in the three weeks to date ( click on DOWNLOAD ). The art is to back sides with scope AFTER they have just lost. Believe it or not only 4 of the 15 sides are still unbeaten. Two of the 4 unbeaten sides have only played 2 matches. So very few sides can be safely discarded at this point.

By way of example consider the following as a form studying exercise :

Bulls - Beat the Sharks narrowly at home. Beat the Cheetahs away. Lost to the Blues at home.
Crusaders - Beat the Blues away. Lost to the Highlanders away. Lost to the Chiefs at home.
Highlanders - Beat the Chiefs away. Beat the Crusaders at home. Beat the Waratahs at home.

Firstly - determine who has had the toughest programme to date. ( It's your call based on your evaluation and NOT on your fancy )
Second - compare your evaluation to their ruling price.
Third - Factor in the next game or two with your prediction. ( eg If your form horse looks odds on to lose their next match then leave them alone for that week and see how they stack up pricewise next Monday ). Be careful to avoid 'If it's the Crusaders they will win' type predictions because you need to go back to 2008 to find them last winning the competition.

For example - Right now how can the Highlanders be quoted between 10/1 - 12/1 to lift the trophy whilst the Crusaders are still only 33/10. Clearly there is more 'market forces' and 'reputation' at play than form!

Second example - Reds beat the Waratahs by an Act Of God. Reds are now 9/2 and Waratahs 10/1.

There are many examples of mis-pricing. But we are all mostly blinded by herd instincts and talk ourselves out of backing serious runners by weight of money on others.

Studying form in rugby is a doddle because there are about a thousand fewer variables than in racing. And the dissemination of accurate information is a given. There is NO WAY you would be unaware of a crucial player change in a Super Rugby match and unlikely that a player who is ill would play. The biggest stumbling block in sport is weather - so wait until you see the conditions before going in.

Attached files zzzSuper Rugby Betting.docx (15.8 KB)Â

Thank you Garrick, I have been watching the games as I have been having a few punts but at this stage no good.
I was expecting the Bulls to win based on previous games etc.

Watching the game I had the impression that the ref wanted to be "man of the match"?
I am sure he did not make any mistakes but just felt he and the Blues kept the Bulls subdued, and the kicker had a shocker, so at this stage I am going to stick with the Bulls to win more than they will lose providing they can get involved in flowing games.

Your comments appreciated

With Week 4 about to happen I am getting the betting up early so you can plan your strategy:

Pointers :

Blues at 7/1 - win or lose there is no material value here this week.
Brumbies - Market unimpressed. Leave alone.
Chiefs at 8/1 - The juice is temporarily gone.
Highlanders at 10/1 - If they beat the Hurricanes they should shorten to as low as 7/1.
Sharks at 16/1 - Value if they beat the Reds.
Waratahs at 10/1 - May not shorten much if they beat Force but look fair value.
Stormers at 7/1 - Possibly too short. Will blow if they lose to Blues.
Reds at 9/2 - Market taking no chances here. Fully priced.

Storm Warning : We must be nearly overdue for our first draw. Look for it in the perceived big mismatches. Which is where it normally happens.

My weekend all to come works out as follows :

Chiefs x Blues x Highlanders x Waratahs x Reds x Cheetahs = 40/1

Cover outlay with :

Chiefs x Highlanders x Waratahs = 14/10 Or a strike on the Highlanders.

Attached files zzzSuper Rugby Betting.docx (16 KB)Â

Garrick, great post !!!! Really and truly. I pay people to give me this kind of feedback on JSE listed companies (

Magi Wrote:

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> Garrick, great post !!!! Really and truly. I pay
> people to give me this kind of feedback on JSE
> listed companies (


Gee daar 'paar tips asseblief:D

Garrick, imo there is money to be made this week-end

Chiefs (banker)
Stormers
High
Thas (banker)
Sharks
Rebels

@ 8/1

Chiefs (banker)
Blues
Canes
Thas (banker)
Reds
Cheetahs

@ 50/1

and so we can mix it up

I'm hoping for a Brumbies upset!!! :

Phil Wrote:

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> I'm hoping for a Brumbies upset!!! :

Not impossible Phil. Jake White's defensive pattern......you never know, but I think the Chiefs het te veel skietgoed vir hulle.

Lekker slaap

Phil Wrote:

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> I'm hoping for a Brumbies upset!!! :


And I'm liking my 6/1 that i took. Getting a good run!!!!!!!! (

Garrick, see the Sharks 6-10 to win outright tomorrow. Bit short in the betting?

ATC this weekend: Chiefs, Stormers, Highlanders, Waratahs, Sharks, Rebels = 8/1

Rebels best this weekend. Cheetahs always come out strong 1st game overseas (beat Tahs 20-3 last year) before getting progressivly worse and the Rebels for me are better than the Brumbies with O'Connor controlling the game. Take Rebels at -6 on the Handicap.

shrek Wrote:

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> ATC this weekend: Chiefs, Stormers, Highlanders,
> Waratahs, Sharks, Rebels = 8/1
>
> Rebels best this weekend. Cheetahs always come out
> strong 1st game overseas (beat Tahs 20-3 last
> year) before getting progressivly worse and the
> Rebels for me are better than the Brumbies with
> O'Connor controlling the game. Take Rebels at -6
> on the Handicap.


agree....this is the bet of the weekend....if correct...i think they have 4 key players returning from injury