July Weights

I think Jackson is a Pointer with 57 kg's

Just waiting for the Bookies to ease him in the Betting a little bit and I am climbing in:)-D

Press Wrote:

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> Jackson to carry 57??? I cant see him pulling it
> off. At these weights, ILHA is the horse to
> beat... Eish, need to rethink my strategy. :S


Plenty said a 3 year old filly couldn't carry 55 to win a July last year. Other than PJ who ran a nice race on Saturday this field pales in comparison to previous years. Ilha Bela has done nothing beat a shocking field in the Oaks and got hammered by her stable mate in the Woolavington. Jackson won with a ease and on lenghts behind form Ilha Bela would have run 7.47 lenghts behind Jacson at level weights.

If Jackson draws in the first half he will shorten and will probably start close to odds on.

100% shrek

the lay is IBela

Magi Wrote:

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> Hmmmm, I think I will have a small each way nibble
> on Captain's Wild .......

you recon we can get it? I think at least 4-5 need to scratch !

Anybody willing to lay ilha bela I'll take some :)o
Comes from a top stable and a great prep and will improve even more
She will be spot on come race day and will relish the trip
If the handicappers merit rating of Jackson is correct he should win easy
But I'll stick with dekock Mary deserves a big race

mr hawaii Wrote:

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> I can never see IBela getting near Jackson or
> English Garden - She's no Igugu so even English
> Garden should put her away -

There is no doubt Jackson is the horse to beat. Fortunately for those like me trying to "roll him", races are not run on paper and the obvious choice gets beat, Mark Anthony springs to mind - can't lose, home and hosed..... well the rest is history. I take the view that when trying to qualify for the July, trainers try and "box clever" - why subject the horse to a severe penalty, when you can get your horse/s into the final field with the bare minimum or no penalty at all. Two cases in point, The Daily News 2000 and Woolavington. In the Daily News, don't believe for one minute that neither Pomodora or Royal bencher could not have run closer to Jackson. The unseen danger of that, is the wrath of the handicapping panel, and just as important, that was their prep runs for the July. It's easy to talk after the fact, however in the Woolavington, the winner, Viva Maria started at 50/1 and paid less than R 25.00 on the tote. If that wasn't "insider" money, then well done to Joe Public who smelt the rat, because i believe Ilha Bela could have won the race or run a lot closer if they wanted to, again, a prep run. You must bear in mind the trainer does not want the horse/s peaking before the race, that's why it's unwise to take these lead up races at face value. To say you can never see Ilha Bela getting close to Jackson somewhat short-sighted, however you are entitled to that opinion. English Garden has been known to bleed, let's hope it doesn't happen during the July, the truth be known, not even Mike Bass can give you that guarantee, personally, i would let it run without my money. The reason people are brassing Ilha Bela is because of the current price, ask yourself this, if you were offered 10/1 or better on IB, would you take it and why? Bear in mind, this horse opened 50/1 for the July.

@Bayern 50/1 is about right...can you explain on what grounds other than the MDK factor is she 2nd fav??? Given her current form if she was from a "small" yard she would be 50/1 and wouldn't even feature in any discussion regarding the winner...in the race that you claim she could have got much closer she not only hung in under pressure but received 6 or 7 firm reminders from Anton (neither of these would suggest that she was in "cruise mode) and still had Dubai Gina on her tail from the top of the str8 to the finish...

Watch The Race

@Titch dont you think its because she improved so much over the ground...her form does not seem up to the others but i would be wary...remember MDK has done it with non stars such as Zirconeom

FC Wrote:

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> @Titch dont you think its because she improved so
> much over the ground...her form does not seem up
> to the others but i would be wary...remember MDK
> has done it with non stars such as Zirconeom


I agree 100% FC but he will give Viva Maria as much of his expertise as he will IB considering that the owner has gone to the expense of supping her into the race and on the strength of their last run 0,5kg's is all IB gets for a 4 L beating so even if VM does not improve at all and IB finds an extra 3 lengths there will be nothing to choose between them and with this in mind how can anyone seriously consider IB???

Titch Wrote:

> I agree 100% FC but he will give Viva Maria as
> much of his expertise as he will IB considering
> that the owner has gone to the expense of supping
> her into the race and on the strength of their
> last run 0,5kg's is all IB gets for a 4 L beating
> so even if VM does not improve at all and IB finds
> an extra 3 lengths there will be nothing to choose
> between them and with this in mind how can anyone
> seriously consider IB???

This must be a very frustrating one for MDK...apparantly Berry Blaze was gonna be the July horse...then SF improved dramatically in his work...now they have supped VM.

If you relook at the interview with MDK after Atlantic Oak's win on Daily News day you may have noticed MDK's body language regarding Jackson. He knows he can't beat Jackson. He wants Jackson.