July Weights

Titch Wrote:

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> @Bayern 50/1 is about right...can you explain on
> what grounds other than the MDK factor is she 2nd
> fav??? Given her current form if she was from a
> "small" yard she would be 50/1 and wouldn't even
> feature in any discussion regarding the
> winner...in the race that you claim she could have
> got much closer she not only hung in under
> pressure but received 6 or 7 firm reminders from
> Anton (neither of these would suggest that she was
> in "cruise mode) and still had Dubai Gina on her
> tail from the top of the str8 to the finish...
>
> Watch The Race

Titch, thanks for responding, these "debates" are good. Why is she second favourite, her appreciation of the extra distance is there for all to see, unfortunately the bookies have spotted this as well, hence the adjustment from 50's into 10's. Whilst she did hang badly, Marcus only went for the whip in the last 60 or so meters to try and keep her on a straight path, not to stay ahead of the others, watch the race again sir. I may be way off here, but one horse was having a prep run whilst the other a definite trier, again i elude to the tote pay out on VM, somebody "knew something was afoot". From a betting point of view, Ilha Bela is currently 9/2 and Viva Maria 16/1, here is a horse who trounced her by 4 lengths and is a 0.5kgs worse off for that effort,by your own admission IB has to find three lengths, my opinion, the bookies believe the places will be reversed this time round. Whilst IB may have beaten "nothing" in the Oaks, she could not have been more impressive, after all, she can do no more than win, and it's on that run i believe she will win the July. To say she can't win the July is foolhardy.

Hi Guys, correction to my post, the hottie in question should read Fool's Holme, may have started 9/10 - evens.

Before signing off, you must agree MDK has a knack of improving horses, take Bold Silvano and Irish Flame, i'm open to correction, but i don't think both these horses started their racing careers with MDK, look what they went on to achieve. Getting back to Ilha Bela, he holds her in high regard and that's good enough for me.

So the 2nd best horse on net merit ratings is now the best handicapped horse and yet poor fellow clansmen are still looking for "value" on others. Leave the "value" for the bread and butter races all year long and just lump onto Jackson. (IMO Jacko is a net 118).

And I hope Jacko draws towards the outside else there will be a strategy from the MDK arsenal to ambush him........

Bayern as you say these debates are good.

Let's dissect Ilha Bela's Oaks run her time would have had her running 6,42 lengths behind Pomodora and Royal Bencher and would have finished 7th in the Colts race. Obviously both races were run differently so hard to compare. Now let's take Tresco and Avenue of Gold who both ran in the Oaks and Woolavington against Ilha Bela. She beat Tresco by 8,25 in the Oaks and 8,05 in the Woolavington and beat Avenue of Gold by 9 lengths more in the Woolavington which suggests here Woolavington run is her true form.

Every fillies race other than the first leg of the triple crown has been much slower than the colts in the 1800 Classic race Ilha Bela ran 10,52 lengths behind Pomodoro. As you said Pomodoro wasn't looking to run within 4 lengths of Jackson to avoid a penalty and that was mission accomplished but still ran a better time than Ilha Bela. If you are looking for something to beat Jackson I would rather take 9/2 a place on Pomodoro than 9/2 a win on Ilha Bela.

JustinV Wrote:

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> considering jackson should be carrying 59 i dont
> see how you can say it cant win at these weights


After the race, you will have your answer.

Guys Guys ... Great Debate.. It seems everyone talks about all De kocks horses for the July except Vettel. This horse has come from no hope to basically a shoe in to make the field. Why wouldn't Marcus ride it if it gets accepted. He is contracted to the Markus Jooste. He is carrying 53.5kg. He is a strong front runner and should get a great run from superman. Doesn't VETTEL come into the reckoning???

Lurker... Indeed. Its all the part of the hype - we pick our horse and we stick to it and defend it no matter what! After the race, some will have egg on their face, and some boots will be filled. All part of the fun

But I agree, this Vettel is in with a squeek, especially if Arthur rides him.

Eton Square has to be a decent place bet at 8/1

WHAT IF Vettel runs on in the Derby on the 24th surely he wont take his place in the july? Provisonally drawn barrier 2 for teh Derby...

Roland Song that is my worry about Vettel, De Kock has always said he is a distance horse so he might choose the Derby over the July as he has a few other chances in the July. Marcus normally rides to 55kg's but if needing to get down to 53,5kg's shouldn't be a hastle.

I would be caused with Vettel until he accepts for the July but would certainally have a place chance if he does run.