BIT - Saturday

Bit of rain around lets hope it doesn't spoil the day...

gregbucks Wrote:

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> Bit of rain around lets hope it doesn't spoil the
> day...


I am diarising next years prawn day at Kenilworth and will make sure I am there. Sounds like a lekker idea.... A bt of rain and I will have a touch or three on Negev at 14's....

Interesting to see Festival of Fire taking n the boys in the Hawaii Stakes?

gregbucks Wrote:

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> Interesting to see Festival of Fire taking n the
> boys in the Hawaii Stakes?


Greg De Kock knows he will win with Espumanti so he wants to win both races so is putting Festival of Fire in the Hawaii Stakes.

shrek Wrote:

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> gregbucks Wrote:
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>

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> > Interesting to see Festival of Fire taking n
> the
> > boys in the Hawaii Stakes?
>
>
> Greg De Kock knows he will win with Espumanti so
> he wants to win both races so is putting Festival
> of Fire in the Hawaii Stakes.

Shrek, i don't your reasoning is too far off...

Are we gonna see Shrek on the box tomorrow....

bring up mathew de kocks comments regarding all their runners tom ....festival finds the mile a bit far

gregbucks Wrote:

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> shrek Wrote:
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>

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> > gregbucks Wrote:
> >
>

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>
> >

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> > > Interesting to see Festival of Fire taking n
> > the
> > > boys in the Hawaii Stakes?
> >
> >
> > Greg De Kock knows he will win with Espumanti
> so
> > he wants to win both races so is putting
> Festival
> > of Fire in the Hawaii Stakes.
>
> Shrek, i don't your reasoning is too far off...
>
> Are we gonna see Shrek on the box tomorrow....

Hope so but she doesn't like the wet so hopefully it is not too heavy tomorrow.

shrek Wrote:

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> gregbucks Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Interesting to see Festival of Fire taking n
> the
> > boys in the Hawaii Stakes?
>
>
> Greg De Kock knows he will win with Espumanti so
> he wants to win both races so is putting Festival
> of Fire in the Hawaii Stakes.

Shrek, don't you think Festival of Fire is badly out at the weights here being a 3 year old filly? I think this is a really difficult race to call because many of the Joburg based horses are returning from breaks or having their second run after the rest and the Cape visitors, well only the race will tell how they handle the altitude. If pushed for a selection i would side with Snowdon by a very narrow margin, reason being, he is racing fit and that might just give him the edge he needs over his more illustrious rivals. Difficult to have an on the head punt here.

Bayern, I said that tongue in cheek. I also like Snowdon, all I have included in my Pick 6 is Snowdon and the De Kock coupling.

Hi fella's. My take on tomorrows meeting. If it rains and a BIG IF... I would have wasted three days of studying and destroyed my fingers typing out this review

Race 1 : Field of 18 of which 14 are first timers. I'll start with a no hoper, 12 Merciless (Steels). The raced horses in this field include Don Vito, Gems a Plenty, Hall of Mirrors and Stiffler with the latter been the obvious choice to show improvement over this trip. The first timers are interesting and I've narrowed my selection down to a few which include Buffalo Bill (Stronghold - Fortwood) and Forest View (Fortwood - Western Winter). Selection : Baffalo Bill

Race 2 : Field of 12 of which 4 are first timers. No hoper IMO no. 9 Sky Rise (Steels). The raced horses in this field include First Sugar of which I believe has shown no improvement over any distance and warrants it's 66/1 price. There are a few runners which could show improvement, 9 Texas General now gets blinkers, 5 Global Power (AUS) retains Delpech and 7 Money Never Sleeps retains Fradd, 8 Sir Swarovski showed some improvement last time out after been gelded and could well be the lurker. 4 Dark Ages showed plenty speed last time out when clear at the 400m only to finish 2nd, this despite not jumping on terms and loosing a couple lengths, if Dark Ages jumps on terms I believe he will be the one to beat coming to the last 150m. Selection : Dark Ages

Race 3 : A smallish field of 10 runners in a Maiden Plate for Fillies and Mares. No. 1 Eva Tibbs seems better than her last start and retains the ride of Striker. The six year old Reminisce has shown no improvement since leaving the Tarry yard in December 2011 and warrants her 100/1 price. 9 Irish Blast showed no improvement last time out despite fitted with the blinkers and remains unimpressive despite being tried on the sand and turf, it's also her second run after a rest. No 2. Passionate Kiss despite having decent form on both the sand and turf usually finishes more than 3 lengths behind the winner although the run behind Divine Grace was impressive considering there have been 3 winners from that form line. No 8. Empire of the moon looks to be improving but only on the sand and her turf form doesn't warrant her 8/1 price, IMO 33/1 would be more accurate and she will drift in the betting come race day. No. 10. Just Fantasize has shown good improvement and warrants 13/2 in the betting market, should Eva Tibbs fluff her lines I believe Just Fantasize will be right there to pick up the pieces, Just Fantasize remains a solid place bet. Selection : Eva Tibbs

Race 4 : Apprentice Hadicap for Fillies and Mares. A field of 16 runners, all these apprentice riders will be fighting out this contest over the 1000m. As it happens to be the 1st leg of the pick 6, it could hold the key to a healthy dividend come race 9. A very open race but i'm going to get right into it. No. 1. Katch took a big jump up in class last time out when running 32 lengths behind Nona in Command and remains an interesting runner as it's the only runner for an inform Kenny stable with K de Melo having only one ride for the day. 2 Approximate seems a decent sort but I believe her work will be cut out here as she faces tougher competition and has no winners from her form line, the 4kg allowance will help and she could run into the money. 3 It'sgottobeme in by far the most interesting 3 year old in the race with a solid form line, the Danish Blue run back in January is very eye catching and it would not surprise me to see her finish first. Of the 4 year olds, Golden Veil, Extraordinaire, Victrixit and Little Venice, Victrixit seems to have all the answers and is well weighted to win a race of this nature, her turn of foot over the last 400m is incredible and would put many to shame, if she sits handy come race day she wins the race. no. 16 Figurine has shown good form of late but has resorted to success on the sand, she could feature and all eyes should be on her betting. The Pettigrew runner Lecture Queen has run against some good sorts including La Volta and Danish Blue, it's important to consider that of her last 10 runs, 60% of them have been on the sand, her last start on the turf was on the 02nd February where she was unfancied in the betting at 33/1 and was unlucky not to notch up her 2nd career victory, she was drawn well on her last start at barrier 2 and was competing against a much smaller field of 9 runners. Selection : Victrixit

Race 5 : Acacia Handicap (Grade 3) over the 1600m. 14 runners carded to run with no scratchings. An open looking race but i'd like to skip the top weighted Checcetti and Without Malice, although there is no doubt that Chambers will take Without Malice straight to the front, she is severly out at the weights and will be caught coming into the home stretch. As for Checcetti it's her 3rd run after a rest and she should improve but 61.5kg is a big ask. 13 Caseys Cause has shown some good form of late especially on the inside track but does take a substancial jump in class, of the De Kock runners, Bluroute is having her second run after a rest and will battle to feature here, I believe she will need the run. Amur Affair on the other hand has shown good form and is ultra consistent, she gets a very important jockey booking of Marcus and is well weighted to finish in front of Demanding Lady. No. 7 Kalami is having her third run with the blinkers and has shown big improvement since, she faces tougher here than her last 2 starts and the true value of fitting the blinkers will be tested.Demanding Lady is still well weighted in the race and has a few beaten purely at the weights including Louvre and Without Malice but IMO will still have her work cut out against a few others. The interesting runner and perhaps the one which stands out the most is 12 Formation, The S Gray mare has been nothing short of phenomenal on both the sand and turf, she takes a step up in class but is still well weighted to win a race of this nature and deserves respect. Formation obviously has a soft spot for jockey Herholdt as their strike rate has been excellent, she boasts career victories to both Flight Zone and Cherry on the Top despite been out at the weights on the latter. It's all a matter of mathamatics and logic in this race, if she jumps on terms and positioned behind Without Malice coming into the home straight, she wins the race. Selection : Formation

Races 6 to 10 will continue...

Race 6 : Rebel Knight scratched now makes it a field of 11 with all the draws minus 1 as a result with exception of Vertical Takeoff who took off almost 2 years ago and is now returning, surely worth a bet at 66/1, watch the claims!!. Lets start with the Bass runners, there are 2, Castlethorpe (AUS) and Captain's Secret of which Captain's Secret look the more likely, the concern for me however is the performance at Turfontein, 2 runs both unplaced. No. 12 Festival of Fire is the only 3 year old in the race and is out at the weights without a doubt, 55kg is little consolation against the bigger boys here. Approachable although well weighted here tends to battle around the right hand turn and would be more favorable down the 1400m Vaal straight. Two Tone can feature but has shown little in the past over the 1400m whereas Galileo's Destiny (NZ) improves each time after a rest, 7/2 in the betting market is not a true reflection on his chances as he has been stubborn on his 2nd run after a rest to date. Finally Whiteline Fever and Snowdon, well it's Tarry versus Ferraris and this is exactly how I see the race at the final 100m, difference between the two. Ferraris stable in form, Tarry stable not at it's best. Whiteline Fever down in class, Snowdon up in class. Whiteline Fever rested and generally runs very well on return whereas Snowdon in good form. Whiteline Fever 0.10 lengths behind Mujaarib, Snowdon 38.00 lengths behind Mujaarib. Selection : Whiteline Fever

Race 7 : Fillies Guineas (Grade 2) Average MR of 87. Highest MR Cherry on the Top, Lowest MR Fortitude. Fella's I'm not going to wrap around all 19 runners for the Fillies Guineas and all 18 runners for the Gauteng Guineas, I've selected a pool of contenders for each and will be discussing only them. The runners left out for the Fillies Guineas are as follows, reason to follow in brackets. 2 King's Temptress (Both wins over shorter and out at the weights) 3 Fire Wheel (Beaten at weights with no. 1) 4 Negev (Up in class) 5 Wood Nymph (Beaten at the weights with no. 1) 6 Al Kindi (Drawn somewhere in the car park) 8 Margot on Stage (Solid sprinter) 9 Amber Orchid (Something amiss of late) 10 Tayba (Won over shorter) 11 Aneefa (Rested) 12 Do You Remember (Up in class) 13 Showtime (Rested) 14 Jet Belle (Car park) 17, 18 and 19 (Reserve Runners likely to be scratched)

Contenders : Cherry on the Top, Sky Pirate, Luala and Espumanti (GB). Let's start with the De Kock runner Espumanti, she has shown us why she warrants prices such as 2/10 and backed from 9/20, she is simply a fantastic race horse and I'm sure many have already signed up for breeding. I have a few concerns for her though, firstly she is up in class, she goes the extra trip (150m) and her last start was won in the soft. You are highly unlikely to ever get even money on her again, win or loose so she's a worthy favorite at 1/1. Sky Pirate has pole position and will likely have improved since her last start, again I have concerns regarding her ability to accelerate and her winning times. 12/1 is a fair price and she'll have her followers come race day. Luala, well you probably think I'm nuts short listing a 66/1 horse but I'll explain, She has been tried over the distance and has run round the right hand turn at the Vaal, one can only assume in preperation for this event, She is the one filly most likely to improve since her last run and will be one worth including into your exotics, her form is solid and although like many others up in class her form lines have yielded many winners, watch the betting. Last but not least Cherry on the Top, 8/1. All I can say is Get ON!!! ( She will have her work cut out with a wide draw and depending on where she features coming into the home straight, will determine her finishing position.

Races 8, 9 and 10 to follow...

Race 8 : Very hard to oppose Love Struck at the weights and Francois Bernardus on his recent form, I think there is more to come from both and it makes for a very interesting contest. Thoughts aside though and pen to paper, it's more open than it seems I believe.

Well for starters, Love Struck although perfectly weighted to win will battle as it's proven time and time again for horses who travel, taking nothing away from it's remarkable form I do prefer others but agree it's a champion and that you will get a great ride for your money come race day.

Francois Bernardus has displayed his worthiness on his last start when jumping up in class and winning relatively easy, takes a special type to do that. As shown in his recent starts the confidence regarding the distance is a looming factor, 01st Sept 2012 he ran over the 1200m at 33/10 and won by almost 4 lengths, next start 03rd November step up in trip to 1400m at 33/1 and won by a 1/4 length beating The Hangman, Up in class on race day tomorrow and somewhat out at the weights slightly considering the step up in trip, carrying 52kg when beating The Hangman... I'm sorry I just cannot see Francois Bernardus winning let alone running a place. Not denying he's a special sort and one for the future.

Rock of Arts 3rd run after a rest, will have to run on from barrier 15 but with a 24+ 400m to finish I can't see him featuring.

Alexander Palace without a doubt a big runner, I have little fault to find and despite a saddle slip in his first start he's done little wrong. Is this a champion? Without a Question!!

Last runner to mention, the Woodruff owned and trained Tellina, Fradd aboard and a decent draw looks the biggest improver despite taking a massive jump in class, No Worries seems to have his number but I believe Tellina has much improved since then. If Tellina jumps on terms come race day it's all over in less than 95.99 seconds.

Selection Race 7 : Espumanti (GB) NUMBER 16
Selection Race 8 : Tellina NUMBER 16

Race 9 : 16 runners carded. Another tough looking race, 2450m to be covered with a decent looking field. Once again, top weights skipped although I suspect the pace will be set by either Seal or Go Gold, it will be a very different race depending on WHO goes to the front. Despite both Seal and Soul Master's quality it will be a tough ask to win with 63kg and 62.5kg respectively. I have a no hoper here in the form of No. 4. Heyouneverknow, well in her case yes I do and i'm not biased but she will have her work cut out for her in this field. I would like to start with the De Kock runners of which there are 3, Main Dane (AUS), Rocco's Luck (AUS) and Canterbury Tale (NOT AUS) of which the latter looks the best, Danielson has an excellent strike rate for De Kock and with 52kg on his back will be right up there at the 400m. The two interesting runners in this field include S'il Vous Plait and Brooks-Club, S'il Vous Plait is weighted nicely and could feature but will have to hope for a little luck in running as he's featured in smaller fields in most of his runs. Brooks-Club on the other hand is up in class and seems to be finding form, it's rather difficult understanding how he's only a one time winner and seems much better than he's credentials, he gets Fradd aboard come race day and a healthy looking 53kg will surely make this his best opportunity to notch up career victory number 2. Selection : Brooks-Club (Molly would be proud as I know how he always speaks about this horse with love in his eyes)

Good luck to all and I hope that I've helped.