How to pick the profitable favorites in the betting and avoid the dodgey ones?

Muhtiman Wrote:

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> .....beware of that 2nd run after
> layoff.....especially when the come back run is a
> blinder.....case in point...... Liancourt Rock
> yesterday....they really fancied him strong but he
> did not have it on that run......:S


maybe you should read the stipes report before you make such statements ...

pirates Wrote:

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> Muhtiman Wrote:
>

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>

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> > .....beware of that 2nd run after
> > layoff.....especially when the come back run is
> a
> > blinder.....case in point...... Liancourt Rock
> > yesterday....they really fancied him strong but
> he
> > did not have it on that run......:S
>
>
> maybe you should read the stipes report before you
> make such statements ...

.....so he pulled up lame.....what do you think caused that strain.....was nice and limber 1st up.....over did it on the 2nd run.....:

and u knew he would change legs co ntiniously in running and pull up lame behind?you are a racing genius muhti whoever you are ...i must get dean kanemeyer to contact you

.....hope to get an official intro to DK when next in Durban.....his assistant, my father and I were all taught by the same man.....

pirates stop getting personal ffs, he gave just his opinion with an example and you onto him (td)

Play nice(tu)-D

Blouperd Wrote:

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> 1.Check how many times fav would have been beaten
> by others previously if the weight turnaround is
> in favor of lessor fancies.Ignore weight claimed
> by appie.
> 2.Fav must be from top stable or must have a top
> jock on , never punt smaller stable fav with poor
> jock and always ignore when appie is on
> 3.Punt the favorites that not fall in this
> category and never punt a favorite less than even
> money


this is the biggest joke posting i have ever seen no wonder people laugh at your posting regarding tipsters...point 3 is the biggest laugh of them all ()

Blouperd Wrote:

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> pirates stop getting personal ffs, he gave just
> his opinion with an example and you onto him (td)
>
> Play nice(tu)-D

.....no need to defend me BP......I have an above average knowlege of horses that not many people understand....I only used DK's horse as an example as I know what he went through to get back to the track.....

and Muhti is correct in my opinion, horses who are very forward first time out after a long rest are to be avoided next time out. And Pirates is just to be ignored ...... not even worth a baseball bat to the head

i agree with Muhti... 2nd run after rest syndrome especially after a cracker 1st run back from a rest

The "true favourite" should be priced between evens and 2/1, and the next horse/s in the betting should be 8/1 and bar.

When a horse/the favourite drifts in the betting, it should be because of pressure on another horse in the race, however, if the drift on the favourite is not alarming, then the bookies still believe the original favourite will win - case in point, the first race at Scottsville yesterday, there was tons of money on Ramp Diva (opened about 3/1 into 15 or 16/10 yet Dazzle, because of the scratching drifted from 8/10 to 12/10, 12/10 being the original ante-post price. Normally you would have expected the money horse (Ramp Diva) to have displaced Dazzle at the top of the boards, hence my post regards the first race.

Conversely, it's all about the horse being "sold" at the incorrect price, so the bookies drift the horse in the betting, supply and demand, still doesn't mean it can't win, however, bear in mind bookies are not in the business to give money away, so when the odds are double (gone out in the betting) the horse doesn't normally arrive, most times the bookies are correct.

Poor Lucky Dube....when you read all of the above shit your head will be spinning...all these 'complicated' answers and yet its so easy...

1-follow Hibs advice...or
2- look at the 'tips' these guys put up...se who is most successfull than ask him.

heinrich Wrote:

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> Poor Lucky Dube....when you read all of the above
> shit your head will be spinning...all these
> 'complicated' answers and yet its so easy...
>
> 1-follow Hibs advice...or
> 2- look at the 'tips' these guys put up...se who
> is most successfull than ask him.

What have the guys tips got to do with this thread:S