How to pick the profitable favorites in the betting and avoid the dodgey ones?

my take is simple,


you cant price up the fav in the grand national @ 2/1 or less
you cant price up frankel @ 2/1 or less

each race is individual and you cant HAVE that criteria as a basis......its ludicrous

Len Sham Wrote:

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> bayern Wrote:
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> > Len Sham Wrote:
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> > > easy Wrote:
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> > > > "The "true favourite" should be priced
> > between
> > > > evens and 2/1, and the next horse/s in the
> > > betting
> > > > should be 8/1 and bar."
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > some comments on here astound me
> > >
> > >
> > > This is like the Tatts at Loveday street
> where
> > > everyone was fishing for fish about 15 years
> ago
> > ,
> > > only they now have computers as marketing
> > > tools...
> >
> > @ Easy
> > @ Len Sham
> >
> > The above statement/method works for me, let's
> > hear your take.
>
> Glad it works for you .. how many races are
> actually priced up as your example in a meeting
> ....

Not many, however when you do come across it, then go with the favourite. Lucky Dude wants to know how to pick profitable favourites - the ones in the parameters i have given (between evens and 2/1) are value, provided the next horse in the betting is 8/1 and better, rather than the ones in the red. You still haven't answered my question though, what's you take on the matter?

bayern Wrote:

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> Len Sham Wrote:
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> > bayern Wrote:
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> > > Len Sham Wrote:
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> > > > easy Wrote:
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> > > > > "The "true favourite" should be priced
> > > between
> > > > > evens and 2/1, and the next horse/s in
> the
> > > > betting
> > > > > should be 8/1 and bar."
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > some comments on here astound me
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > This is like the Tatts at Loveday street
> > where
> > > > everyone was fishing for fish about 15
> years
> > ago
> > > ,
> > > > only they now have computers as marketing
> > > > tools...
> > >
> > > @ Easy
> > > @ Len Sham
> > >
> > > The above statement/method works for me,
> let's
> > > hear your take.
> >
> > Glad it works for you .. how many races are
> > actually priced up as your example in a meeting
>
> > ....
>
> Not many, however when you do come across it, then
> go with the favourite. Lucky Dude wants to know
> how to pick profitable favourites - the ones in
> the parameters i have given (between evens and
> 2/1) are value, provided the next horse in the
> betting is 8/1 and better, rather than the ones in
> the red. You still haven't answered my question
> though, what's you take on the matter?


My take is what Umlillo said never mind the price choice is yours get in or stay out () 8 favs can win on a day but the one you go for ,what ever the reason is the 1 to get beat was that the only dodgy fav on the day..


..

easy Wrote:

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> my take is simple,
>
>
> you cant price up the fav in the grand national @
> 2/1 or less
> you cant price up frankel @ 2/1 or less
>
> each race is individual and you cant HAVE that
> criteria as a basis......its ludicrous

Easy, i'm not disagreeing with what you saying, it's all about spoting the overlay. Check the date this ticket was taken (to roll the 5/10 favourite, Red Ray), posted a comment on Lucky Dude's other thread about finding big priced roughies, page 1. Try and price up yourself and then compare to the official betting, there's plent value to be had.

Attached files 20130429162436521.pdf (23.7 KB)Â

bayern Wrote:

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> easy Wrote:
>

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>

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> > my take is simple,
> >
> >
> > you cant price up the fav in the grand national
> @
> > 2/1 or less
> > you cant price up frankel @ 2/1 or less
> >
> > each race is individual and you cant HAVE that
> > criteria as a basis......its ludicrous
>
> Easy, i'm not disagreeing with what you saying,
> it's all about spoting the overlay. Check the date
> this ticket was taken (to roll the 5/10 favourite,
> Red Ray), posted a comment on Lucky Dude's other
> thread about finding big priced roughies, page 1.
> Try and price up yourself and then compare to the
> official betting, there's plent value to be had.


Bayern all you had was a bet against the fav at obviously good odds does not mean fav was a dodgy fav:S

I have to agree with Easy........................ "some of the comments astound me":

The only time you should want to back a horse should be because you have found evidence that a particular horse has an advantage over the rest of the field........the theory is to convert that advantage to a % chance of winning and then convert that to the relevant price:

If the available price is better than your estimate its a good price,if its less,its a "dodge" (interesting term) price!..........the principle is true of outsiders or favourites!

A few things to bear in mind:
a)not every race (in fact relatively few)can have one horse with a distinct advantage!
b)a "good" price does NOT increase the horses chance of winning............only the return IF it does!
c) horses can't read so they don't know their price........success depends on your ability to assess the chances of the runners!

Dont punt the favourites I punt - then you are set....

rob faux Wrote:

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> I have to agree with Easy........................
> "some of the comments astound me":
>
> The only time you should want to back a horse
> should be because you have found evidence that a
> particular horse has an advantage over the rest of
> the field........the theory is to convert that
> advantage to a % chance of winning and then
> convert that to the relevant price:
>
> If the available price is better than your
> estimate its a good price,if its less,its a
> "dodge" (interesting term) price!..........the
> principle is true of outsiders or favourites!
>
> A few things to bear in mind:
> a)not every race (in fact relatively few)can have
> one horse with a distinct advantage!
> b)a "good" price does NOT increase the horses
> chance of winning............only the return IF it
> does!
> c) horses can't read so they don't know their
> price........success depends on your ability to
> assess the chances of the runners!

Excellent point that many ignore

rob faux Wrote:

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> I have to agree with Easy........................
> "some of the comments astound me":
>
> The only time you should want to back a horse
> should be because you have found evidence that a
> particular horse has an advantage over the rest of
> the field........the theory is to convert that
> advantage to a % chance of winning and then
> convert that to the relevant price:
>
> If the available price is better than your
> estimate its a good price,if its less,its a
> "dodge" (interesting term) price!..........the
> principle is true of outsiders or favourites!
>
> A few things to bear in mind:
> a)not every race (in fact relatively few)can have
> one horse with a distinct advantage!
> b)a "good" price does NOT increase the horses
> chance of winning............only the return IF it
> does!
> c) horses can't read so they don't know their
> price........success depends on your ability to
> assess the chances of the runners!


sanity prevails

Beware of betting avalanches or "gold rushes". A ruling favourite who has been backed in from the clouds was backed at value for that punter and so can afford the loss so much more than the punter who has backed that favourite at the apparently very expensive ruling price.

Follow ABC, that's the best bet.. A lot of top draw form analysis punters here.
U will be pointed in the right direction. 2day, I fancied Drumminoir in the last like on wouldn't belive, I was unable to post coz I got busy at work n unable to punt it as my card got cloned and all my cash swiped of the face of the earth. But Drumminoir(spelling) had a pull in the weights with BWC. I made Strike a Light and Redetskies rebel the obvious dangers at the weights. I marked a 'friendly P6'(which wasn't a winning ticket either way) but Drumminoir was the banker, as well as Verticcal drift(wouldve been the losing leg)..but I'm no genuis, but I do say the tking in2 account what the guys say can help a lot. ESP in PE. A few months ago, I caught the PE PA an R87 investment at just over 3times paid about R1300,I won R5000 for R87 was purely by bankering my 2 fancied runners ond day and listening to the lads on here

Always...ALWAYS punt Karl if he's on an odds on shot -