How to pick the profitable favorites in the betting and avoid the dodgey ones?

Plenty of different approaches LD For me none are right and none are wrong. The important thing to me is to have your own rules and stick to them with a little flexibility to modify as you get more knowledge and expertise.

The Rob Faux approach is probably the best in terms of sensible betting. But, if you don't have Rob's mind and dedication then don't try his way because you will almost certainly lose by cutting corners or misunderstanding.

As for the others, if they work for those individuals then fine, do as they advise or ignore.

Personally, my "off the top of my head" waffle...

1. imo NEVER bet odds-on in SA. Mr H is right there are probably dead certs on a level playing field but sadly I am a suspicious soul and find trust difficult to attain sometimes
2. I look for a reason why the fav can be beaten... for example I will very rarely back a fav with a bad draw. I'd rather look for a well drawn horse and go each-way.
3. Avoid Striker's rides when fav, there is often absolutely no value in them, he often says so himself if you hear the interviews
4. On sand, avoid short priced favs running on the surface for the first time unless you have a sound knowledge of well bred horses for sand and even then I would say be a little cautious
5. Avoid short priced favs in the juvenile races unless you have a sound knowledge of well bred horses and which trainers ready their horses first time out and which bring them through gradually (make that your next thread please! ). Again, even then be a little cautious, there is often one newbie that surprises
6. Be weary of "seemingly" heavily backed first timers... many assume the support is to win but there is no way of knowing if it is win or each-way support. Bookies often also over-shorten a backed horse in fear the support will keep coming and coming... many supported horses drift again presumably because of this
7. If there is no reason not to back the fav then do as Hibs says and if you fancy it on form then have a punt... and good luck

I've often watched the fave drift out and out for no obvious reason. Maybe its because everyone jumps onto some other horse because everyone is jumping onto that horse? I just don't know what the reasoning is. Then the original favourite comes through and wins, duh!

I like to know what the bookies priced up as SP favourite. They don't have any sentiment in the matter and don't take chances.

Also, everyone says, Don't back in maiden juvenile races. Agreed there's often a newbie that storms through and upsets your apple cart. But also the horses running are not yet sour or too wise to exert themselves. I'm willing to take my chance on the newbies for the sake of a genuine effort from my fancy.

?...........take note of range bound sire stats..........The Sportingpost has on their breeding and pedigree section a table of range averages for some proven sires ........National Assembly for instance shows a dramatic decrease in average wins beyond 1600m.......yesterday some piled into Duke of Beauford over the 1800m........ouch

Lucky Dude why have you not worked it out yet? You been punting for years.