Vaal Sand - Thursday 27th

Speed ratings for those main contenders with previous Vaal Sand form –

Seems to be some ‘value’ around in most of the races in what looks to be an attractive competitive card…at least for my ‘favourite folly’ of ‘getting’ the short priced fancies beaten.

R1 JUV PLT 1200m
85…Estancia 10/1
84…Velvet Verona 9/10
69…Highland Lad 14/1
??….Die Kat 2/1
??….Dynamite 11/2
Will not be looking further than Estancia at 10/1


R2 MDN-F 1000m
74…All the Tens 12/10
70…Spotakova 18/10
67…Copper Gaia 25/1
55…For Your Eyes Only 33/1
??….Shiver ‘n Shake 28/10
All the Teens sand runs have only been mediocre and looks vulnerable here. Copper Gaia looks a good place prospect.

R3 MDN 1450m
80…Selazar 5/2
77…Dulce Leche 5/1
75…Our Folly 4/1
75…Auriferous 14/1
72…Hobb’s Flight 33/1
70…King of Kuwait 33/1
Dulce Leche appeals here in spite of a poor draw…may be better suited coming from off the pace as do many of the STP/MvR runners.

R4 MDN-F 1800m
79…The it Girl 16/10
72…Shirla 28/10
70…Noble Wind 20/1
Really good sprint run from The it Girl last time out and now presumably at more appropriate distance…looks good.

R5 MR68F 1200m
90…Delta Lioness 7/1
86…Velvet Jar 16/1
80…Water Bird 13/10
77…Sucha Wonder 66/1
75…Set to Strike 40/1
72…Mesmerising Melody 7/1
Like Delta Lioness and also Velvet Jar here…sure Water Bird can be another MGA prolific sand winner, lets see!


R6 MR68F 1200m
90…Love Vivien 5/2
89…Boujis 12/1
81…Zena’s Own 40/1
75…Dying Thunder 25/1
73…Savannah Montana 8/1
70…Lady Kensington 11/2
Like the top two rated again here although Boujis will be at a disadvantage with the draw.

R7 MR68 1200m
95…Bareback 8/1
90…Passion Pleaser 8/1
83…Cola Canyon 20/1
82…Roaming in Rome 14/1
82…Celtic King 9/2
82…Lord Hawke 10/1
??….Red Revenge 28/10
Unless it’s a really low weight that is the ‘key’ - Bareback can not find a better race than this…I do not think his recent win was just a flash in the pan?

R8 MR85F 1600m
99…Lucky Hand 2/1
98…Rivulet 7/2
96…Tomorrow’s Miss 25/1
??….Flight Zone 5/2
Did I misread the betting for Tomorrow’s Miss? Looks a challenger to the top two inspite of their recent good runs.


R9 MR69F 1600m
94…Aloha Bay 10/1
93…Miss K 4/1
88…Goose Valley 5/1
88…Olympic Spring 7/1
85…Perfect Winter 11/2
83…Elegant Bay 33/1
Most competitive race on the card…going wild with Elegant Bay yet will be loading up in the PA + P6!

Thanks THH, very helpful. (tu)

Thanks as always for sharing THH (tu)

For BH... you owe me lol. But, I must confess this has been done without my "usual" enthusiasm and as may come across, there was nothing outstanding for me and plenty debutants which may throw in a spanner or two. Anyway, here's some jottings...

R1 Velvet Verona is the likely winner for me, his win on the sand was re-enforced by the runner-up, over 6 lengths back, winning next time out and from his turf win the 4th, 5th and 6th were all previous winners, the 3rd has won convincingly since and the runner-up was supported in from 14s to 3s that day. Fair to say that VV is a worthy favourite. That said, if one of Die Kat or Dynamite takes a real liking to the surface then there could still be a race on. Was tempted to have a little on Woodruff's Dynamite last night at 11/2, wish I had as it is now 6/4!! Has the best draw of the three. Fradd rode VV to both his victories but now switches to Die Kat with Striker up on VV. Selection... VV x Dynamite x DK

R2 Spotakova made a fair sand debut when finishing 1.4l behind All The Tens in the race won by Stylish, with that run coming off a 13 week break then there is a fair chance of the form being overturned though the appie claim may just tilt things back into ATT's favour. That run was ATT's second consecutive silver and though he must have a chance again here the form does not look the strongest. That can also be said of Copper Gaia whose only sand run also resulted in the runners-up spot but again there has been nothing to frank the form. Magner sends out Shiver n Shake, nothing to indicate this one will be a definite taker to the surface but he has had some decent turf runs and I don't think he will have to be a star to win this and thus might be worth chancing. Selection SnS x ATT x Spotakova

R3 Sans Limites produced a disappointing debut sand effort and will need to produce more for me to be interested, comes back in trip though and has a good draw. Klondike Creek's sire Kahal has produced decent sand performers and must be of interest with some sound turf runs but has a tough draw in 10. Dulce Leche could strip fitter but is on second run after a rest from the 13 box and those two factors are enough for me to pass on this occasion. Senezal finished 1.25l ahead of DL in that last run and with a better draw makes more appeal with Striker retaining the ride over 250 further. Auriferous though was only 0.5l behind DL and with only one bronze from 8 course visits there is a hint that form is not the strongest. Hobb's Flight finished a well beaten second to King's Joy over 1600 and with 6 top 3s in 20 runs does occasionally produce an ok run but is not for me. Sarge Tattoo has some for potential for performing on the sand in the breeding and may be worth a nibble at a big price for the brave. Selection... Krondike Creek x Senezal x Auriferous

R4 The IT Girl made a decent sand debut when finishing in silver over 1200, has a bronze from 3 turf efforts over 1800, from a good draw in 4 must have a very good chance here. Shirla disappointed last time after a promising debut on the surface, if you forgive her that run then she has a chance but will be a watching brief for me. Diamond Lill and Mercedes (overlooking previous sand run) have something in the breeding to suggest they both could take to the surface, the latter has the better draw of the two and has PS up. Bally Havoc also has something in the breeding, from a good draw with a very light weight I've had a minimum nibble at 50s. Selection... The IT Girl x Mercedes x Bally Havoc

R5 Mesmerising Melody seems anything but consistent but has two silvers from 4 course visits, a fair draw in 6 and PS on board, if in the mood could well be thereabouts but a big weight to carry. Delta Lioness was disappointing last time after a decent run from a poor draw, watching brief for me but could place. Delighted won well on the turf for her maiden win last time out and has a good draw but nothing suggests to me that she will necessarily take to the surface so again, for me, view only here. Velvet Jar pops up occasionally and had a poor draw last time but not a great draw today either and I'll pass. None of the rest appeal apart from Water Bird and I think this one the likely winner. Not a big fan of first time out of the maidens but this one won well over 1450 on debut, represents the Azzie/Fradd combination and has a fairly good draw in 5. With many questions surrounding some of the others it may not be wise to go big but this one will certainly be included in my win accumulators. Selection... Water Bird x Mesmerising Melody x Delta Lioness

R6 Love Vivien made a decent sand debut when runner-up, represents the Woodruff/Fradd combination, has a good draw in 3, and may well prefer the extra 200. For me, is the likely winner but there are others with decent chances. Grootfontein was a gutsy winner (for me ) last time out on the turf and Kahal has sired some decent sand horses so from a good draw of 4 this one could well be thereabouts, all depends how he takes to the surface. Lady Kensington comes out of the maidens having won on her sand debut and with the 1 draw from the Azzie yard is another who has the credentials to be contesting the finish. Boujis has run consistently in low grade affairs, 2 top 3s in 4 course visits and 4 top 3s in 8 distance runs, likely to run her usual race and not be too far away at the death but a poor draw won't help. Mona Lisa... if taking to the surface can't be discounted but watching brief for me. One at a bigger price that might be worth a nibble is Dying Thunder. although not a great draw in 8 it is better than her draws for her previous two course visits and with the appie allowance giving her a very light weight she could feature despite an 0/6 top 3 distance record. The rest either have poor draws and could struggle to get involved or have nothing that appeals! Selection... Love Vivien x Grootfontein x Lady Kensington

R7 Fradd up on another sand debutant, this time on Red Revenge for the Zackey yard. Breeding suggests he might take to the surface and from a not-so-bad draw he must have a good chance if so doing. Bareback... well, no surprise that he ran a poor race last time following the shock win, in fairness was very poorly drawn last time but I would be surprised if he places from another not-so-good draw, that win though did come under this appie. Tolmay also runs Celtic King who has some creditable performances on the course, he's on third run after a rest but form since that rest has looked poor with coughing etc, think I will do a view on this run though if runs to his best should be thereabouts. Not convinced Lord Hawke loves the sand but both runs followed the latest rest and is now on 3rd run after that rest, not drawn well (but 2cents makes positive comments below and heavily supported). Roaming in Rome would be of place interest with a better draw but Passion Pleaser is one that has run well from poor draws before and has a chance. The one at a bigger price that holds some interest for me here is Colca Canyon, has 2 silvers (both as a maiden) from 3 course visits, seems inconsistent but gets the 1 box here and is often not too far away when drawn well. Selection... Lord Hawke x Red Revenge x Celtic King

R8 Tomorrow's Miss has over 6 lengths to find with Rivulet, was returning from a rest but is 1kg worse off and hard to see the form being overturned. Rivulet has been consistently good on the sand with a 6/7 top 3 course record and a win and a third from 2 c and d runs. Nothing to choose between him and Lucky Hand though on their last run, LH finishing 0.75 ahead and Rivulet 1kg better off at the weights. That was over 1800 and Lucky Hand, who has 2 wins from 3 course visits, may be more suited to 1600 plus Rivulet had the 1 box last time and now goes from 6. Princess Lily gets a light weight with the appie on board and though not drawn so well that seems less important over the distance, breeding suggests she could well take to the surface. Tresco has PS up and is drawn 2 and Slinky The Cat represents the GVZ yard and drawn 3, neither can be discounted but PL would be my guess at the best of the sand debutants. Selection... Lucky Hand x Rivulet x Princess Lily

R9 Jolly Wood gets the 1 box but is on 2nd run after a rest and recent runs have seemingly been well short of his best. A return to form would definitely give him a chance, and that could be said of Waltzing Duel also. Watching briefs for me. Aloha Bay improved last time and despite a wide draw could well challenge for places. Miss K also has a wide draw but has run well from them before and seems to like to run handy so could well overcome the draw. Won last time out over c and d and has a good chance. Finished 6ls ahead of Perfect Winter that day but I think that was probably a poor run by the latter. In the same race, Olympic Spring was only 2.5ls behind MK on 2nd run after a rest and is now 2kgs better off but is another with a poor draw. In the previous race over 200 further OS beat MD by 2ls. Subsequently though OS was almost 3ls behind PW over 1450 and of those three PW has the best draw today and that might make the difference. Selection... Perfect Winter x Miss K x Olympic Spring

Apologies if not as "good" lol as previous efforts. Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)

THH and E....you guys got no time.....:D

Thanks for the effort.....(tu)

Great stuff guys

Excellent write up Englander. (tu)

Race 1
A lot of money for dynamite...bred 4 speed...top stable but got a lot to do against die kat and velvet verona..my selection to run them ragged...velvet verona ..

Race 2
All the tens to beat on sand form but I fancy shiver and shake to overtake her at the 400m mark..after that it is how far

My bet for tomorrow is follow Gavin Lerena ... Especially on flight Zone.. This horse looks like it will take to the sand and may prove to be a very good bet. I really like this horse esp since trainer seems to be finding form..

By you writings Englander you are a perfect combination of an English ,Math and typing teacher all in one Thanks LOL.

July_Mad Wrote:

---

> My bet for tomorrow is follow Gavin Lerena ...
> Especially on flight Zone.. This horse looks like
> it will take to the sand and may prove to be a
> very good bet. I really like this horse esp since
> trainer seems to be finding form..

JM, indications on SAhorseracing that GL is not riding tomorrow

Pulse... hmmm

Race 3
Sans limites could do better with a good draw this time around but seems a bit average...selezar seems like a bit of a flop purchase...only reason it may be short is because of stryker on board...our folly is a battling maiden but could steal this from a good draw...if klondike creek takes to this surface then it will be race over.....tough race to choose but my value bet has to go to auriferous to take advantage of the 4kg claimer and finally put his best foot forward