Merit Ratings -4 yr olds and older

Ben-Hur Wrote:

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> Is a 3yo (MR 91) carrying 57 expected to finish
> ahead of a 4yo (80) with 59,5 at this stage ?

Over 1200m yes
Over 1400m, maybe
Over 1600m, no

Morning

IMO this raising of MRs is not going to be any good for the better (higher MR) Horses. My reasoning is that in practise Trainers will enter Horses with lower MR that will be on their mark of say 50kg with the higher MR Horses having to lump 62/63 kgs i.e. fewer Horses will be under sufferance now. I might be wrong but this will be determental to Racing and I predict more frequent upset results from on.

Just listening to the interview with the Owner and Trainer of Jimmy Choo they feel that his MR was already to high. Now it will go up again by this 6 point adjustment PLUS more because of his win. Soon there will not be any Races for the better performing Horses as the powers that be are catering in favour of the lower performing Horses. What will the result be on the Stud book as we descend into this cesspool of mediocrity.

fogwils Wrote:

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> Morning
>
> IMO this raising of MRs is not going to be any
> good for the better (higher MR) Horses. My
> reasoning is that in practise Trainers will enter
> Horses with lower MR that will be on their mark of
> say 50kg with the higher MR Horses having to lump
> 62/63 kgs i.e. fewer Horses will be under
> sufferance now. I might be wrong but this will be
> determental to Racing and I predict more frequent
> upset results from on.
>
> Just listening to the interview with the Owner and
> Trainer of Jimmy Choo they feel that his MR was
> already to high. Now it will go up again by this 6
> point adjustment PLUS more because of his win.
> Soon there will not be any Races for the better
> performing Horses as the powers that be are
> catering in favour of the lower performing Horses.
> What will the result be on the Stud book as we
> descend into this cesspool of mediocrity.

Jimmy Choo is a three-year-old so he will not be affected - Why do you say a GR1 placed three-year-old is rated too high at 100? On his form he is in the top 10 sprinting three-year-olds so why should he be rated lower? Remember he gets an age allowance too - Also why would his MR go up because of his win against far weaker(He did not win easily and the runner up is only a 52) If your horse is a three time winner from 7 starts - a win in listed company and 4th in the Nursery(Gr1) you cannot expect to be rated lower than what he is considering the age allowance.

I believe this crop af three-year-olds are a good lot and will win many Features against their elders who have now been raised in the MR


Nursery Runners MR's as three-year-olds
The Hangman 103
War Horse 100
Delago Delux 107
Kavanagh 107

We don't know if the ratings are correct until tested but you cannot give a GR 1 placed horse a low rating for no good reason - Remember those two-year-olds have been winning against their elders over various distances

This is another case in point of racing having no concern for the client:

Sporting Post report an increase ACROSS THE BOARD........obviously not quite right!

Now Western Cape horses racing today off "old" ratings without comment.........are they also excluded( I notice that almost every older horse that didn't win last time out has had their rating reduced........is this a lurk to offset the increase?)

I wonder if somebody could clarify what is actually going on!!!!

fogwils Wrote:

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> Just listening to the interview with the Owner and
> Trainer of Jimmy Choo they feel that his MR was
> already to high. Now it will go up again by this 6
> point adjustment PLUS more because of his win.
> Soon there will not be any Races for the better
> performing Horses as the powers that be are
> catering in favour of the lower performing Horses.

Its a global change, so the effect is very small. It does not affect the 2yo's who have just turned 3yo.

The owner of Jimmy Choo is obviously a bit new and is listening to idiots. How can you argue the weight you had to carry and you just won oddsd on and you beat the handicappers rating? The question is will the older horse Jimmy Choo beat be carrying 3kg more next time relative to Jimmy?

As for your other point, if there are LESS horses under sufferance then the increase has another point in it's favour because the handicap becomes MORE fair. You are not favouring the previously disadvantaged, you are just correcting a disadvantage and it stands to reason that the more horses carrying the correct weight, the more fair it is to more horses.

Jack Dash Wrote:

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> Ben-Hur Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Is a 3yo (MR 91) carrying 57 expected to finish
> > ahead of a 4yo (80) with 59,5 at this stage ?
>
> Over 1200m yes
> Over 1400m, maybe
> Over 1600m, no


Thank you

Hi Jack Dash

I concur with ur sentiments but for it to br fair then the official Handicappers have to get it right. I am not intimately involved with any stable but have often heard, even from the TOP Trainers, that they question the Rating of certain Horses. How long have we had the MR system and there are still apparantly grey areas even amongst the Trainers whose livelyhood is Horse Racing. I cannot believe that all Trainers are idiots and do not understand the system by now.

I realise that there must be lot of subjectivity involved in the Rating of Race Horses but it appears to me that there is no TRANSPARENCY at all, not only to the general public nor even for the Trainers.

The problem with most trainers is that they use one specific horse and then often find another specific individual to prove that their horse is out.

The handicapper is dealing with that horse and how it relates to an entire field who has recently met with other entire fields.

The handicapper then is always trying to find a "best fit".

Many variables occur simultaneously such as different ages, horses moving up or down in form, changes of trips, courses, form reversals, time between races, and on and on... It is difficult for anyone who is putting horses in a forever changing pecking order to explain exactly how one horse ended up x points for another one when you are comparing 100's of horses in 1000's of permutations where everything is approximate.

It's not a case that some horses are incorrect, but that no horse is exactly correct.

Today at Clairwood there will be 9 winners. In nearly every interview we have to listen to how horses were cheated of wins they should have had by the hopper, and this from people who just stopped others from winning. Do golfers who win also argue their advantage wasn't enough?

Finally, many of the systematic flaws are because rules and restrictions that are mindlessly in place against the long handicap. These rules were put in place by a panel of experts who ignored the protests of the handicappers. They were trainers and owners mostly, who wanted to protect bad and expensive horses which have been purchased against really good horses which would win everything if I'm allowed to paraphrase loosely.

Argh..this is so pointless because until the spirit of racing is for excellence first, and we remember that handicaps are for the also rans and a side show not the main event, we will stay in this grey murk. I've started figuring out how to play fillies handicaps so I have learnt to live in the murk.

Thanks for ur input JD, much appreciated. As mentioned I concur but just when I seem to be getting it RIGHT the wheels come off. To me there is just too many EXTERNAL factors in deciding a Horse's potential in any given Race without any TRANSPARENCY wrt some of those external factors e.g. AHS, Equine Flu vacs, fitness of Horses returning from a rest, etc. it becomes a gamble.

But then when one gets it right it is really a great feeling of accomplishment that you go back for more, just like Golf hit one good shot and a 100 bad shots and guys play again in case they hit another good shot or 2 tomorrow. BTW do U do your own handicapping.

Jack Dash has one of the most comprehensive handicapping platforms on the planet.
I think it's one of the reasons I relocated to Knysna !

Where can i see a copy of the notice that only major centre horses were adjusted? How do satellite yards work?

Looks like sand ratings were not increased - what a shambles again :S