Could someone please tell Jules

Punter Wrote:

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> Value is anything over 2/1, whether its e/w or
> just place as long as its over 2/1. I am sorry I
> can't afford to put R5000 down on a even money
> shot that runs 2nd. So without getting clever
> about Value remember its one game for the rich and
> another for the poor.

I agree Punter .your value is 2/1 to someone else it could be 8/10 has nothing to do with how much you can put on...

there is no defined answer, each punter will or could have value defined diffently according to there method of form studying....

gregbucks Wrote:

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> there is no defined answer, each punter will or
> could have value defined diffently according to
> there method of form studying....


just like beauty - value lies in the eye of the beholder and backing a winner at any price is better than backing a loser

gregbucks Wrote:

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> there is no defined answer, each punter will or
> could have value defined diffently according to
> there method of form studying....

......and the stats say 95% get it wrong :

rob faux Wrote:

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> gregbucks Wrote:
>

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>

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> > there is no defined answer, each punter will or
> > could have value defined diffently according to
> > there method of form studying....
>
> ......and the stats say 95% get it wrong :


Spot on Rob

for me i define value as follows

horse A is 2/1 i think it will win so i back it to win for £100


horse B is 8/1 i think it will win so i
back it to win £30 stake
take exactas B x field 2 times
take exactas field x B once
banker in trifecta with field field
another trifecta field B field

and spend the same £100

by the same token

i am far more likely to banker a 8/1 in a jackpot than an 8/10

I agree with pretty much everyone's comments.

The best value is the winner because that is where you make the profits irrelevant of price whether it be win, place or whatever. Punter you are correct but I think you need to go to the Loopy Logic School of Betting if you are losing, he will tell you in no uncertain terms that you don't become rich by backing losers, you become rich by backing winners, albeit starting with small stakes etc and accumulating. It is difficult to argue with that approach.

Mac is perhaps closest to my assessment of value. When I do my jottings I try not to look at the prices first. I am often astounded after I have finished and the prices are up at how they have been priced up and I will often say certain horses represent no value to me, that is because they are imo too short for whatever reason or perhaps a fair price but with questions to be answered, ie no sure thing. Then, on the other hand, I look for another I consider a good price for an e/w bet.

Which leads me on to my main point... maybe once a week I actually see a horse that I think must surely win. And I guess that is what the pro-punters are looking for. that means there are in the region of say 70 races a week where I think more than one horse has a chance. I think we are probably all the same. Now, if I have three horses that I think will compete and one is 2/1 fav, one is 3/1 second fav and the third is 50/1, the value bet is obviously the 50/1 shot and that is the one I will primarily focus one, to me it is the value bet in the field. Of course, in hindsight, the exacta might be the first two favs and therefore the real value was with them and i missed it, tough! lol So, when I generally use the term "value", I am referring to the one that I think has a good chance of winning at a price which I think fair or better than I was expecting.

But as BH says, you could write a book on it...

fark me, you pretty much have engels....

gregbucks Wrote:

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> fark me, you pretty much have engels....


bwahahaha....

gregbucks Wrote:

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> fark me, you pretty much have engels....

lol, I do tend to waffle on, guilty as charged

Englander Wrote:

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> But as BH says, you could write a book on it...

Cheque Book...