Turffontein 15/11/13

Yoh halve he deficit is an absolute shoe in

Like the 50/1 double ilha bela and red barrel

Jet lee Wrote:

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> Like the 50/1 double ilha bela and red barrel

At the weight turn around, Ilha Bela has it all to do against Master Sabina, however i think a fully fit IB (3 rd run after the rest) can go close.

bayern Wrote:

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> Jet lee Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Like the 50/1 double ilha bela and red barrel
>
> At the weight turn around, Ilha Bela has it all to
> do against Master Sabina, however i think a fully
> fit IB (3 rd run after the rest) can go close.


Bayern Ilha Bela is 5,5 kg's worse off with Halve The Deficit and lost by 2,5 lengths. That is a lot to make up. She always seems to fail against the boys. I took some of the 6/1 a win and 1/1 a first 4 on Halve The Deficit with Betting World. Get on now as that price won't last. (tu)

Mac Wrote:

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> Mmmmm. I like two emergency acceptors: FULCRUM and
> CROWN MINE.
>
> prosperous punting.


Mac, I see your Crown Mine is in now with Fradd aboard. (tu)

shrek Wrote:

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> bayern Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Jet lee Wrote:
> >
>

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>
> >

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> > > Like the 50/1 double ilha bela and red barrel
> >
> > At the weight turn around, Ilha Bela has it all
> to
> > do against Master Sabina, however i think a
> fully
> > fit IB (3 rd run after the rest) can go close.
>
>
> Bayern Ilha Bela is 5,5 kg's worse off with Halve
> The Deficit and lost by 2,5 lengths. That is a lot
> to make up. She always seems to fail against the
> boys. I took some of the 6/1 a win and 1/1 a first
> 4 on Halve The Deficit with Betting World. Get on
> now as that price won't last. (tu)

Shot, will do.

shrek Wrote:

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> Mac Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Mmmmm. I like two emergency acceptors: FULCRUM
> and
> > CROWN MINE.
> >
> > prosperous punting.
>
>
> Mac, I see your Crown Mine is in now with Fradd
> aboard. (tu)

I don't think this is by choice.
I am sure it has something to do with the jockey draw ( international jockey race)

agra Wrote:

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> shrek Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Mac Wrote:
> >
>

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>
> >

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> > > Mmmmm. I like two emergency acceptors:
> FULCRUM
> > and
> > > CROWN MINE.
> > >
> > > prosperous punting.
> >
> >
> > Mac, I see your Crown Mine is in now with Fradd
> > aboard. (tu)
>
> I don't think this is by choice.
> I am sure it has something to do with the jockey
> draw ( international jockey race)


I was referring to Crown Mine getting in the race per Mac's comment. Fradd had to take the ride as his mount, Indian Striker, was scratched. :S

shrek Wrote:

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> Maybe Frodo, 2Cents or Rob Faux can help here.
>
> Halve The Deficit because of the Conditions of his
> last race didn't incur a MR increase. I tried
> using Master Sabina as a line horse and made his
> last run a 102 when using Ilha Bela I came to
> around 110. How would you guys rate Halve The
> Deficit's last run?


In addition to Master Sabina, if one takes a line through horses like Storm Warning, Serissa and Pierneef, I rate that last run of Halve a Def at around 102 - so really I think big value at 9/2 - for me the danger in the race is the stable companion Tiger's Retreat - but I do think TR is better up to 1600.

I have taken my normal small bet on Halve a Deficit, and also included him in win and place Yankees with some others like Sky Rise (IF he can repeat his last effort behind S'll Vous Plait, shoud be too good at the weights here imo), Tiger Quest (very good win last time and the form was franked by Summer Adieu running an excellent race behind Jet Belle on Tueday night), Miss October (looks fair value taking into account that 2 lenghts 2nd behind Via Africa in March) and Tender Twilight (down in class and may nor have enjoyed the softer ground last time)

Hope the weather does not interfere - looks a competitve card (tu)

Oh Ok.
Sorry Shrek ...misunderstood you

I've taken the double Mistaken Identity onto Tiger Quest (11 to 1) .

Mistaken Identity already mentioned above , overraced from a widish draw last time and should prefer this shorter trip from a good draw .

Tiger Quest won at this course last time over a bit further but I think is possibly best this distance .

My fancies...

R1 - 9 - Mistaken Identity
R3 - 2 - Duly Ordained
R4 - 5 - Enchanted Silk
R7 - 8 - Tigers Retreat

E/W Yankees for me

Good luck all!