The Vaal Tues 6/5/14

Discuss Tiesdays card below

After the last 2 you opened this is a boring thread hibs....()

Last year I backed a 50/1 shot e/w it got shortened to 16/1 before they jumped. My words were this will win only horse that concerns me and can beat it is the first timer. This first timer duly obliged winning going away on debut by 2.50 lengths. My 50/1 shot ran 2nd and runs again today. That first timer was LOUIS THE KING. Down in class and the same c/d as well as jockey on board I make Race 8 number 3 Cherie's boy a huge runner.

Not sure if the prices will hold but got two that are appealing enough at approximately the current odds.

Race 5 - I aren't particularly sure why Ahoy Captain has been campaigned at shorter when there's an argument that the mile trip could be his optimum nowadays, as he is seen too often doing his best work late. His last win (45 weeks ago) came over this C&D and he's fallen pretty far in the weights since then. To his credit, he's been really consistent of late, often running in much stronger races than this one and he seems to produce a good level of form. His effort last time out in a similar sort of race (over a sharper distance) again shows that he needs further and he finally gets that today. There's a couple in here that are younger and on the face of things, look more progressive but Ahoy Captain is essentially unexposed at this distance even at his quite old age, will almost certainly run a good race and should be priced closer to the 5/1 mark. He's well-handicapped to boot and he's worthy of some support.

Race 6 - I agonised over backing Norgay last week but he was declared a non-runner and drops into a really weak race here. The Saint is 7/4 but that's probably most likely due to a lack of credible rivals and although Norgay is the second favourite, I would have him bordering on being top of the market. His effort last time screamed of a winner in waiting, as it was his second outing after a break and built significantly there on his reappearance effort. He also shaped as if he needed further and he gets exactly that today. Norgay has fallen to a good weight since going close back in November over around this trip and obviously is able to contest a much weaker race now than back then. Gavin Lerena is an extremely positive jockey booking and I'm really hopeful of him being a much improved horse today over this distance, he's my best bet of the day by quite some margin (as opposed to Ahoy Captain) and I'll be extremely disappointed if he didn't go close.

Good luck all (tu)

Nice explanation Yorkshire.

RACE 1 Top 3 Annapolis .. Saddle slip last time . Ran in a feature 3 outing back.should give miss december/missmasala a run for the money.

Thanks for posts guys
Good punting

Race 2
6 (0,00) ,8 (1.59) ,4 (1.9) ,9 (3.33) ,11 (3.83) ,13 (5.32)
Race 3
1 (0,00) ,9 (1.56) ,2 (3.87) ,7 (8.97) ,8 (9.7) ,5 (11.7)
Race 4
1 (0,00) ,2 (2.74) ,4 (6.94) ,5 (11.6) ,7 (13.3) ,3 (17.4)
Race 5
8 (0,00) ,6 (1.07) ,9 (1.76) ,3 (1.96) ,5 (2.17) ,2 (2.92)
Race 6
6 (0,00) ,5 (0.28) ,1 (1.26) ,12 (2.76) ,11 (3.2) ,10 (4.05)
Race 7
1 (0,00) ,7 (0.57) ,3 (1.09) ,8 (1.26) ,4 (1.4) ,6 (1.42)
Race 8
10 (0,00) ,4 (1.93) ,3 (2.37) ,9 (3.72) ,1 (4.05) ,2 (4.79)

Best Bet
Race 8 – 10 Moneyball
Trifecta R12-00/Quartet R24-00 Race 8 – Banker 10 with 4,3,9,1

100% PA R32-00
6,8
1,9
1
8,6
6,5
1,7
10

1% Pick 6 R7-30
1,9,2
1,2,4
8,6,9
6,5,1
1,7,3
10,4,3

100% Pick 6 R9-00
1
1
8
6,5,1
1,7,3
10

Enjoy and have a Gr8 dayB)

CCNDRACING Wrote:

---

> Last year I backed a 50/1 shot e/w it got
> shortened to 16/1 before they jumped. My words
> were this will win only horse that concerns me and
> can beat it is the first timer. This first timer
> duly obliged winning going away on debut by 2.50
> lengths. My 50/1 shot ran 2nd and runs again
> today. That first timer was LOUIS THE KING. Down
> in class and the same c/d as well as jockey on
> board I make Race 8 number 3 Cherie's boy a huge
> runner.

Nice call but this horse is a expert in running places and doesn't know how to win or what winning is about.I think this must be the oldest maiden runner and one that has earned a lot of money to the owners by just running places, a great horse for exotics - for you my friend and the owners Eric I hope it wins it is well over due (maybe with another trainer it would have won some time ago ) no offence.

Guys some advice on the 7th race please. Is 33/10 not a bit short for Matthew Ethan? I think he will either win comfortably or run unplaced.
Tempting to take two pick 6's one banking Matthew Ethan and another with the field. I make that race a diabolical MR 67. Some guidance right or wrong will be appreciated. I agree with Yorkshire I like a bit of ahoy captain and Norgay (best bet on card) at 4/1.

I agree with Yorkshire on both Ahoy Captain and Norgay - but for me at the odds Ahoy Captain does represent slightly better value - not a bad each-way double imo

Frodo Wrote:

---

> I agree with Yorkshire on both Ahoy Captain and
> Norgay - but for me at the odds Ahoy Captain does
> represent slightly better value - not a bad
> each-way double imo


In Norgays race I would be a little careful of Urgent Fury. He has come down in the ratings and if he doesn't stride short I think he could be a massive runner at decent odds.

Play well!