R1 A race for speculation really. Three Azzie debutants with no positive breeding indicators and all drawn relatively high. Delicious Damowin found support lto but again failed to shine on the surface. Flaming Ace has been very consistent on the turf with 4 2nds and 5 3rds in 11 runs, he has an ok draw in 6 and there is a potentially positive indicator in the breeding that he will take to the sand but the consistent bridesmaid role is a worry. There Is A Dream and The Red Tzar both have had fair runs here and step up in distance, both in with a shout depending on how others take to the surface and if they stay. Others if taking to the surface could surprise. I would go with Flaming Ace if my life depended on it but not at that price given his frequency to place rather than win. So, I am with (my price-ruining - opened 33s in the UK - lol fellow clanner) Ruffian and I'm going to start the day with a miniscule complete idiot e/w in the form of Forget-Me-Not... and it is only miniscule because she is up against the boys. There are positive indicators in the breeding that she could take to the surface. Last of 12 beaten 15.75l by Seven Whispers (and 13l behind Bad Dream) on debut over 1200 and she then was well beaten again over the Turf 1450 when poorly drawn, she was 13l behind Bang Sue in that run. Interestingly though, lto she was put up against winners, 3 of whom had finished ahead of her in those two previous runs, over the Turf 1400. She was better drawn and blinkers were worn for the first time. She improved to finish 6l behind BS and only 1.75l behind Bad Dream and 5,75l in front of Seven Whispers (don't think she was forced wide though). She has a good draw in 3 and a low weight. Obviously taking on the boys here is a concern but the blinkers appear to have helped and noteworthy that her trainer has entered her against winners lto and now against boys. I will be interested to see how she performs irrespective of the result... FORGET-ME-NOT x FLAMING ACE x THERE IS A DREAM
R2 Of the few with course experience I would expect Runaway Time to finish ahead of Forever A Friend and it would take a lot of improvement for any of the others to get involved. FAF needs to find 3.25l with RT on their run behind Mayan Destiny. Although RT often runs respectably, she is something of another bridesmaid with 4 2nds and 2 3rds in 10 c runs (0-1-2 in 3 c/d). The races they have featured in though do not look particularly strong though and both have drawn poorly, 8 and 11 respectively and thus it would not surprise to me to see this go to a c debutant. The problem is none of them have positive indicators in the breeding so it will have to be "hunch" work! That said, Coral Key showed good improvement over this d at Bingo lto and a repeat of that effort could be good enough here from the 4 box. Of the others, the three that appeal most are... All Jammed Up has achieved little in 4 turf runs but has a bang in form jockey aboard and the stable has been improving again recently. Well drawn in 2. Evidently represents the Tarry/Khumalo combo and although she has shown little in her 2 runs, she was rested 30 weeks after her debut run and was then drawn 14/14 in her comeback run over Turf's 1400. Midnite Spirit has her first run and the in form JJV Vuuren stable puts Lerena aboard, 24% win and 44% places combination from 25 runs and drawn in poll. will have a little on the much bigger priced CK, AJU and Evidently but the hunch is very much with MS, who has also been supported... R2 MIDNITE SPIRIT x CORAL KEY x ALL JAMMED UP
R3 Johnny Chestnut was a decent runner-up on sand debut lto over 1600 and finished 9.5l ahead of the 3rd with 4 of these rivals well behind. The field looks weak again here and he must have big claims of going one better. He is though drawn in 14 and whether that offers a chink of hope to others remains to be seen. Those who could take advantage... Tripswitch has only been within 10.25l of the winner once in 8 career runs, including 3 here. Was only beaten 1.3l at Bingo in penultimate over this d and has been poorly drawn in all 3 runs here but, has done so again here being housed in 11. On balance he looks improbable. Cherry Breeze tries further but has not particularly impressed in his 3 c runs, the Kenny/Lerena combo though is 55% places in 66 runs. Dragon Fay was returning from 18 weeks off when behind JC lto but 18l is surely too much improvement to find. Shakaland has 12l to find. Son Of A P needs to show something outside of Bingo for me to be interested in him here. Hear Ye Hear Ye (same trainer/jock as FMN from R1) has been well beaten in 3 turf runs but there is a potential positive in the breeding to suggest there may be improvement on the sand, R1 e/w and throwing her in the mix simply as I don't have much confidence in the rest so why not go for the big priced one (and do the trainer double e/w)... R3 JOHNNY CHESTNUT x HEAR YE HEAR YE x DRAGON FAY
R4 JET JAMBOREE x STRAW MARKET x SILENT FORCE
R5 TOMORROW'S MISS x NIGHTINGALE GREY x KNOCK KNOCK
R6 TERRA MARIANNA X ELEGANT PARADE x IMPERIAL EMPRESS
R7 SHARP DESIGN x ACROSS THE ICE x TRIP TEASE
R8 STEP IT UP x SUPER GUPPY x ECHUKA
Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
Topic Author
