Durbanville, 22/10

Didn't go through the entire card, I do like the following :-

R4) - Vincente (17/10), 3rd run after the rest and should be cherry ripe to win here. His last run was his second run after the rest and only just failed. That was also his first run at Durbanville. From a decent draw tomorrow he may be very difficult to peg back. Second favourite, Lizard's Pursuit (4/1) beat a really average bunch last time out, whilst he is the obvious danger receiving 3.5kgs from Vincente, I will take the view that Vincente has more scope for improvement.

R5) - Catkin (16/10), if this horse is anywhere close to being racing fit, he will put this field away. Interesting to note Cheyne has opted to ride Catkin in "preference" to stable runner, Counts Rocket. The joker in the race must be Peace Pact. If he's MR is correct, then he should battle to beat Catkin because he should be receiving much more than the 2.5kgs he is receiving, 3.5kgs out by my calculations. The danger with taking Catkin's MR at face value is that, that was achieved after a win in the Juvenile ranks, and they are pitched very high. To his credit, he has run well subsequent to that victory, and more importantly, to a very smart sort. I'm going to take Catkin's fitness on trust and or hope he has the class to beat this field.

R2 - Triptothestars (7/1), this is my value bet for the day. The way the bookies have priced up is really interesting. Favourite, Balance Sheet (8/10) is way too short in my opinion. Fancied on debut when beating Melson in KZN, and an okay seasonal debut when returning to the Cape. Granted that was his first run back from a break and also he first run at Durbanville. I just don't think he ran to any potential stars in that last race, which leads me to ask is he really an 8/10 shot in this race against better opposition? For what it's worth, Melson has since won twice after going down to Balance Sheet, however there has been 17 runners from those two races and no winners. Triptothestars on the other hand was expected to beat Bruno, which he comfortably did, and we all saw how impressive Bruno was when breaking he's maiden on Saturday. Triptothestars has a good draw and appears to race handy, as oppose to Balance Sheet who has drawn 8/8, and if he doesn't get away on terms, could be chasing from the get-go. Personally I feel 7/1 is too big a price for Triptothestars. Apologies, just needed to add this. For me the biggest danger to Triptothestars may well be the other 7/1 shot, Brave Leader.

Good punting.

Double

BOUNTIFUL HARVEST
CAPTAIN'S ORDERS

Casual Fan interesting runner. Horrendous stallion. Mare good offspring

Thought I had found a relatively good banker with Ma Choix, but now am doubting myself. Doesnt seem to have beaten anything decent.

I really like Lady Graca in the 7th, and probably should bank this. Drawn in pole, ran against a much stronger field last time out and faded. Takes on a relatively weak field tomorrow and the only horse that may cause a danger is miss link which could be anything.

Race 2- fancy brave leader as e/w onto race 8 waiting for rain. I think both horses are priced way to high just looking at form and previous runs. Though I am a strong bayern fan therefore will get on with his selections as well.

Bayern... Ramsden comment for Catkin, doesn't refer to fitness but the "win hope" would imply he thinks the horse is ready to go...

CATKIN:
It is great to have him back on the track. He had a couple of hard feature race runs during the winter so I thought it would be a good idea to run him here, in a small field with a good draw, to try and get his confidence up and hopefully another win on board.

-

With Bayern on Catkin

With Bayern in thinking Balance Sheet seemingly very poor value and with him in thinking both his 7/1 shots could be right there, i side with Dean though in having a preference for Brave Leader.

There are two others tomorrow that perked my interest a little though both are somewhat risky. I just figure that if they don't win tomorrow but show improved form then the prices will be much skinnier nto so lets give them a go and hope they come in!

I am aware that with one of them I am putting one up which Richie refers to as "weak" as she runs in R7 and is not one of the two he mentioned lol I am going with De Sol A Sol. I have a hunch, or perhaps more a hope would be closer to the truth, that she will much prefer the good ground and that her maiden runs on that going were, comparative to what some in this field have come up against, not bad efforts. When winning her maiden she had Shakespeare's Lady 3.55l back over this d at Kenilworth and in her run before that, her second career run, she ran a fair 2nd over this c/d. Her dam has produced only one other runner and her results also tend to imply she had a preference for better going (not that I know much about that type of thing so have no real clue if it holds much weight! lol). The main concern is whether she will need a run after 18 weeks off. But, as Richie says, this is not the strongest of fields and I am not even convinced that Lady Graca's forms holds much weight (the Bass stable comment is not negative but at the same time it inspired no confidence)' Like Richie, I see Miss Link as the one who could spoil the party.

To make up an e/w patent, I am going to go another risky route and add Triple Bluff from race 3. This is only his 4th career outing and only his second run is potentially important. That one was over this d whereas the other two were over 1200. His first run was obviously his debut and he was drawn high on a day the vast majority raced down the inside. He did come across that day but it is very difficult from the replay to see exactly how he fared but he was long odds that day and it has proved quite a strong maiden with the top 5 having amassed 6 wins, 4 2nds, 2 3rds and a 5th in 14 subsequent runs. TB was also drawn high lto and was in effect tailed off, again they raced down the inside and he was was one of three that raced on the outer and were clearly struggling to stay with those on the inside. the best of those three was running on past a couple of stragglers to finish 11th. The winner of that race though was 0.5l behind TB in their previous meeting, when both were having their second outings, over 1000. It was perhaps not the strongest of fields but TB still ran 2nd despite clearly running greener than the greenest of green meadows! lol Also behind TB that day was Q School (4.8l) who is 3/1 fav here and Corridor Of Power (8.05l - debut run) who is also around 8/1. He is coming off an 11 week rest and has been gelded in that time. The big issue though could be the 10 draw. This does look another very weak field though so for me, worth chancing.

E/W Patent: R2 Brave Leader x R3 Triple Bluff x R7 De Sol A Sol

Be(s)t of luck to all

Race 4 i think Vincente is a banker..should be fully tuned up now.
Race 5 If Catkin fluffs it I like Matador in Red to pick up the pieces.
Was a nice run behind Global Destiny lto.
Race 6 Irish Myth sticks out for me even though it comes from a 3 month break.
Race 8 im hopefull Imibala can make improvement.

@ Englander and Richie, i am not having a bet in R7, but just looking at the field, i think Casey's Jet is not without a prayer. If she runs anywhere close to her last effort behind Indaba, she will be there when the photos are taken. In her last race, she was one of the worst weighted horses in the race, being a Plated race, yet put up a good performance. Something to consider, her MR has dropped 9 points in just over 2 months, so she may well be competitive in today's race. She is after all receiving a decent pull at the weights against the other fancied runners, 6/1 does represent good each way value. Overall, a minefield of a race.

Im of the opinion that the Van Reenen horses only wins when going is
good to soft and or soft in places, heavy or wet.

No disrespect only my observation.

Manna has just the one