On the Facinate formline, Canyoucancan has a shot of rolling the short priced favorite. Ramsden working hard at sorting out his gate issues and if he finally jumps on terms he can run a big race. @16/1 I think he's the value in the race.
The missing link wrote: On the Facinate formline, Canyoucancan has a shot of rolling the short priced favorite. Ramsden working hard at sorting out his gate issues and if he finally jumps on terms he can run a big race. @16/1 I think he's the value in the race.
TML, the favourite (Amarillo Rose) was making her racing debut from the widest draw, whilst Canyoucancan was having her 7th attempt at breaking out of the Maiden ranks, in the race you refer too. Don't think Canyouycancan can beat Amarillo Rose, the Snaith first timer could be the danger to the favourite. Amarillo Rose will not bump a weaker field than this and should prove difficult to beat. Fancy the double with Trouble Maker in the 5th.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
The missing link wrote: On the Facinate formline, Canyoucancan has a shot of rolling the short priced favorite. Ramsden working hard at sorting out his gate issues and if he finally jumps on terms he can run a big race. @16/1 I think he's the value in the race.
TML, the favourite (Amarillo Rose) was making her racing debut from the widest draw, whilst Canyoucancan was having her 7th attempt at breaking out of the Maiden ranks, in the race you refer too. Don't think Canyouycancan can beat Amarillo Rose, the Snaith first timer could be the danger to the favourite. Amarillo Rose will not bump a weaker field than this and should prove difficult to beat. Fancy the double with Trouble Maker in the 5th.
Yep I agree with you but the reason I took the bet was because Canyoucancan and Amalia Rose were the last two horses round the turn and Canyoucancan switched out and ran 2 lengths infront from relatively the same position. There is obviously bigger improvement from AR but I think the small field will suit Canyoucancan as he'll be closer up than usual and with his usual late burst of speed can maybe nick it. AR the definite favorite but don't think the price offers any value and Ramsden saying the horse is well makes me inclined to have a nibble.
Had a bit of spare time thanks to the abandonment today so, against my better judgement, as I don't normally like/do well in CT (and it looks competitive tomorrow), here's a bit of waffle for anyone who can be bothered...
In the 4th, Amarillo the one to beat but I too don't think Canyoucancan is out of it, if she hits 20s plus (which is where imo she should have opened!) then I think she becomes some potential e/w value. 14s... p1ss off lol. Ignoring the two Snaith newbies (one has raced in the UK) as no clue how ready for racing they are (yawn), I don't think Caprice Des Dieux can be discounted either, nothing between her and AM on a line through Gauteng. AM has natural progress and the draw on her side though I think CDD might appreciate the slight drop in trip. Will probably play CDD in a small e/w and hope to at least get reimbursed.
Pleased to read that Bayern likes Trouble Maker in the 5th, spent a while looking at the race and came to the same conclusion, very competitive but I think TM could be the right one. I ended up with Trouble Maker x Very Clever x Consonance x Beaufort Sea x Eternal Love with the other 3 behind... would not be entirely surprised though if it ended up completely in reverse!
Bass sounds fairly confident of a decent run from African Fish Eagle in the 6th and if coming on from the run after a rest then, back to probably his best trip and from the 1 box, he warrants serious e/w consideration imo with the stable in such good form of late. Not my first choice but I certainly thought 16/1 was worth a nibble. Big respect for Master's Eye and What A Mission, either could win though the draw may prove something of a hindrance to the latter's chances. That said, I think Twentymanjones and Do Be Snappy might fight this out. TMJ put up a very creditable effort in his first attempt at the d in his penultimate run but I will side with the well drawn and (for me) nicely weighted DBS who could add gold to the silver and bronze he has received in his 2 prior c/d efforts.
R7 I would rather pass and watch Crystal Cavern (draw in part) and Jazz Fire, the latter is first time out of the maidens, the form of which does not look the strongest ever to me, but apparently will appreciate the step up in distance. My main concern is that the horse has switched stables and though BFH is up which can be bo bad thing, surely Fourie would have taken the ride if they were expecting a tip-top performance first time up for the yard. Or maybe it is weight? I have no clue on such things so if anyone can advise, it would be appreciated... (Is it such a blardy hardship to let the public know expectations, well-being etc? Not picking on the Snaith yard though I sometimes think it feels like I am!) Partly because of the original jockey arrangement, I was quite strong on the e/w chances of Lift Off who has a gold and two silvers in 3 runs over this trip, 2 on this c. I would much rather Fourie was still up though and not sure of the reason for the change but no denying, it is a concern. Nevertheless, although different races/distances etc, on runs against Swannee River and Be Fabulous, LO looks very well weighted to me, against CC and a couple of others, and from a good draw in 4, I make him a big runner here. Colour Magic and Disney Queen complete my trifecta.
In the last, I am not convinced about New Fort or Even So, pass and watch on both of them for me and I have a similar outlook on Captain's Orders who, up in distance, has questions to be answered. I am in the Ovidio camp but, although I expect him to win, I was surprised at the price and the market in general, 5 or 6 have only a couple of lengths between them based on previous meetings. Royal Trump seems to be improving with racing and/or with an upturn in the stable's fortunes and I will probably also chance a small e/w on him. Tygerhoote likely to be not far off and Chrome Blue, Revved Up and Forte De Ouro are all entitled to be in the vicinity.
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