Turfontein Tuesday - 16th

Race 2 Approval Rating in a race where a lot of speed, gavin can sit off the pace and mow them down late, the right one in the race imo
Race 6: Kings Drive has some earlier form to Rabada and at a big price the e/way value on the card for me
Best of luck to all

bayern wrote:

bayern wrote: Guys, have a look at Amber Orchid in the 5th - will take a power of beating.

Will explain later.

Back now, think you'll agree.

Pinnacle Stakes, Amber Orchid rated 93 carrying 60.0kgs. Favourite, 5/2, Princess Tantan merit rated 81 plus a 1.50kgs wfa allowance, which she is not getting - don't let them (the odds makers) put you off.

Bayern I certainly don't want to put u off but a closer look at amber orchids merit rating will reveal that she achieved her highest rating of her career over 2000m and today she runs over 1400m which could be the bottom of her distance range ...the key is can she run to a 93 over 1400m?like I said I don't want to put u off

exacta with Parisienne Chic

Welcome to all the new posters, just a word of advice, don't take criticism/comments personally, that's the beauty of the forum at the end of the day, different peoples thoughts. At crunch time you still have to decide what to back etc and I for one love hearing everyone else's point of view but at the end of the day I make the decision whether to take opinions on board or not, I prefer to lose my own money then to follow a so called tip as when it loses you wonder why :lol:

Back to racing, in the 6th a runner that no one has mentioned of yet is Silver standard. Although coming off a short break has some very useful formlines filled with winners with a jock on top who I think Bob will agree is of a similar "A" standard as spoken about earlier.

Not a card for me to get heavily involved with today just some e/w's for interest sake.

R1 Scarlett ice /secret angel possible improver.

R4 also in the EM camp.

R5 I think feather foot can and will make Amber orchid run. Swingers and exactas for me.

R6 Stated above.

R7 Sacred Ground nice e/w price and continues to drop in the ratings.

R8 Dusk to dawn however for idiot purposes a small e/w double on Fortunefella the devin little/karl Zechner combo with feather foot.

All the best chaps.

Chaps please enlighten me if I am incorrect. Studying with winning form did Amber orchid get a 6 point rise in the ratings 87-93 for the run behind tammanee and feather foot get reduced 3 points in MR for the last run. Winning form states AO best MR 87 whilst FF best MR is an 88 both horses ran off these marks lto and gallop has AO as a 93 whilst FF as an 85.

Bob Brogan wrote: Has Mansour got the size 12? not riding for his yard today

I hear got the boot (2 weeks suspension for pullng in dbn)
I hear he's gone to turkey.
I stand to be corrected though.

Madame Dubois negative is her last run in that it might have taken a bit out of her to do what she did
Good to see stats on ones coming back from Scottsville

4 pages and we are still more that 90 minutes away from Race 1 - good stuff to all that have taken the risk of mentioning their fancies - for me I try to 'project' the stuff shown in the form to what could possibly happen in forthcoming races - not a perfect science, but one has to try - otherwise just go to the casino :ohmy:

Thoughts for the day (and ColinP does not have to read this :lol: )

R1: Older fillies definitely not going to Hollywood, so maybe the 2yr old could be good enough despite the WFA disadvantage - for me she could maybe prefer 1400, so I'm looking to beat her - Scarlett Ice has faced stronger imo and is my first choice and if Pride in Battle is allowed to be dropped out, she could also run on into the money; Diamondinthedark the unknown quantity over the 1600

R2: Interesting runner here is Victorious - has had some breathing issues and was racing with a tongue tie - today the tongue tie comes off, so not sure if he had a breathing operation in the time he was off the track - has some serious pace and could be a threat if his breathing issues have been sorted; Doing it for Dan the obvious one, but the Goosen stable has been a bit off the boil lately, and there should not be a lot between DifD and Approval Rating (who also has breathing issues) - surely too short for Whiteline Fever?

R3: Madame Dubois obviously very classy, but 4/10 :ohmy: improvement expected from Negroamaro - the 16/1 about Peggy Jay is tempting :ohmy:

R4: Very tough race imo - only one I do not give chance to is Minnesota - collateral from lines very confusing - if I had to stick my neck out, I'd go for Danza as an each-way selection - was good value at 16/1 - but that is no longer available

R5: From a value perspective, I like Featherfoot - won over this trip and is not really that far out at the weights; safer options probably Break of Dawn and Princess Tantan; really not a Amber Orchid fan over this trip

R6: Not an easy maiden race by any means; Rainy Day Blues has the most scope, and although the form lines do not look that great, he had some poor draws to deal with in both his starts, so he is my first choice from Wargames - Silver Standard may improve after being gelded

R7: Competitive handicap - Pivotal Pursuit probably prefers the 1600 and must have a chance despite the draw; Klondike River (draw advantage), Excalivar and Ultimate Tiger have obvious credentials; Sacred Ground is improving since being fitted with a tongue tie and Karraar - if returning to his best could easily win this

R8: Dusk to Dawn was beaten 4 lengths by Icy Avalanche on Thursday, but if one looks past that, he does look the right one Fortune Fella could still improve; best roughie imo (14/1 a place :ohmy: ) is Full Bloom who showed big improvement in his last start only fading late

Enjoy

Some nice posts Colin Dav... the voice of reason {thumbs up}....{thinks}..."Hmmm, reason may make this place boring"...

I with you on Featherfoot. had a small flutter and if drifting will include in some doubles and trebles. For the record I believe Mr Wiid will have an idea of which of his is the better in the 4th, and I have gone Streetwear.....

I am not into backing 2yr olds over a mile in open company in June... but darn Tales of Mambo has nothing to beat there... except possibly the draw. I will stay out of that except for R10 eachway on Phuza for the blinker strike ....66/1 and 10/1 the place.

Race 1 - I thought Lady Jibe could improve as raced wide early and then eased back in her last start. She is drawn better and has a bit more time before the turn to get a position.

Race 5 - Featherfoot showed a bit more last time and returns to favourite track.

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