Vaal Sand Thursday

Value bets
R4#4 Walkabout
R6#3 Run For Revelry

Gavin Lerena not riding

Not sure if he goes on sand but that last run excellent - De La Vere - May well enjoy 1800m

race 2 trip tease and race 4 mooghamir cant see this 2 losing the double is @ 12/10.

value bet bet for me is in race 5 no 10 capricorn ridge.

mr hawaii wrote: Not sure if he goes on sand but that last run excellent - De La Vere - May well enjoy 1800m

I'm taking a chance and bankering De La Vere in my pa...

Bob Brogan wrote: 4/10 Trip tease opened looked quite generous

Another 1/5

HorSoc@1 wrote: Does Mr St John D Gray own all the horses he trains?

He trained Biarritz for I think Karel Miedema.

morning,

bipot; 3 5 7 / 1 4 / 2 7 9 / 1 3 6 9 / 3 4 6 / 3 7 8 11 R874

R1 Swizzle Stick R1 e/w
R3 Twilight Tiger x Bold Approach (liked anyway, but noted that Delpech switched to TT after jockey change re Lerena)
R4 De La Vere
R5 Mirage Drive x Capricorn Ridge
R6 Ahlaam (at best wins imo, but, seemingly, quite frequently not at best!)
R7 DIESEL POWER e/w Sub Shaawes R1 e/w
R8 Susquehanna

Be(s)t of luck to all

gregbucks wrote:

mr hawaii wrote: Not sure if he goes on sand but that last run excellent - De La Vere - May well enjoy 1800m

I'm taking a chance and bankering De La Vere in my pa...

I am bankering Trip Tease in my pa..... :woohoo:

Real interesting looking card - thoughts:

R1: Obviously Tripadvisor - the worry imo is that she is has been reported making respiratory noises in all her starts - and today the tongue-tie is removed again - so for that reason I'll just watch. River Empress's form does not look that strong (I know Howdylikeit came out to win again, but RE finished less than a length behind perennial maiden Buddy's Falcon, so I would not be surprised if one of the lightly raced sand debutantes proves to be Tripadvisor biggest challenge - Rocky Shore has the draw and comes from what looks to be strong race won by Leila's Charger so can't be left out of exactas, etc

R2: Trip Tease - even if prepping for the Hamilton (a handicap) on Cup day looks the proverbial racing certainty today

R3: Interesting - Drifting Dusk has the best rating imo, the question is of course the surface; Twilight Tiger is also well rated imo - but may just need this run as she is probably heading for the Banyana on Cup day; not a lot at the weights imo between Miss December and Brightnumberfour; and the real roughie could be Regal Rose, has had one poor run on the sand before, but tries blinkers again and at these weights could try to run the others off their feet early

R4: A lot of course depends on whether Mooghamir takes to the sand, looks very short in the betting imo, obvious dangers looks to be De La Vere, Battle of Arcole and maybe Il Duce (who could improve a lot over this trip); real roughie that could upset imo is Play Zak - has desperate form on the turf, but tries the sand here after a bit of a break

R5: Another interesting Pinnacle Stakes; first choice for me is Raise the Red, comes back after a break to a trip over which he is still unbeaten - the stable is red hot, so not bad value imo at 8's; another one that looks big value imo is Capricorn Ridge - inconsistent, but look underrated of 81 and has the plum draw; The Royal Rhumba probably the 'safe' inclusion especially in the BP and PA; Alghadeer comes back after even a longer break than RtR, but being from the de Kock yard, should be ready and could feature if he takes to the sand.

R6: Two runners Mystic Express and Ahlaam stand out at the weights, but ME has not run to her sand rating this year and has a wide draw to boot, while Ahlaam disappointed badly last time and may prefer 1600; for this reason I am leaning towards Peep Show; not a lot between her and Ahlaam on the run behind The Angelus, and PS is probably better suited to the 1450. Lady of Kildare comes off a bit of rest, but has the plum draw and is also not too badly in at the weights, so has a chance with Tutta Magee, who needs some luck from a widish draw.

R7: Competitive handicap; obvious chances to all of Celtic King, Angel Gabriel, Beza and Diesel Power; but I am looking for the upset; All I Want much better than his last run, and needs inclusion imo with the sand debutante Bee Keeper - stable a bit quiet and not the best of draws, but being by Kahal could easily take to the sand

R8: The scratching of Bellevue has thrown the race open imo; IF Imperial Empress can repeat her last effort she could prove hard to beat. I make the danger Susquehanna who was not stopping over the 1800 last time; the Alexanders bring one horse, Mulberry Bay, to the track and gets Bling to ride it; did win her maiden here over 1600, and may warrant inclusion.

Enjoy

Cheers Frodo I am obviously planning atc with hotties