Summer Cup Betting

Price good but don't fancy

Brilliant Prep today, far better than many that ran in the Charity mile yesterday

I'm going to go with French Navy (8/1) despite the majority siding with Legal Eagle (9/2), and here's my reasoning.

The two races that convince me that French Navy will more than hold his own are the SA Derby and the Vodacom Durban July.

In the Derby won by Legal Eagle, French Navy finished 4.75 lengths back in 3rd at level weights. Without wanting to start a bun fight but, the horse that hampered French Navy at a crucial stage of the race was Legal Eagle. Guess we'll never know what the outcome would have been but for that incident.

In the July, French Navy conceded 0.5kgs to Legal Eagle and finished 0.50 behind Legal Eagle in 6th place. Admittedly Legal Eagle did appear to be hampered and switched at a crucial time - may have won or finished closer, who knows?

As far as preparation runs go, see Legal Eagle (MR 120) is nominated to run Saturday, 14/11 (Victory Moon, I think) carded to carry 62.0kgs, whilst French Navy (MR 113) had his prep on Saturday in the Charity Mile.

Come Summer Cup day, I'm not convinced that Legal Eagle can concede (say) 3.5kgs to French Navy and beat him. Granted Legal Eagle is very good, but neither is French Navy without a prayer at the weights.

charity mile run from french navy .
just saw the replay and was flying at the end,good betting prospect .
next time out whatever distance put what you want.

Not sure what weight St Tropez will carry - but will probably be receiving chunks of weight from French Navy and even more from Power King and Legal Eagle - 40/1 was a great price, even 14/1 not to be sneezed at imo

Frodo, if 60.0kgs will be top weight and 52.0kgs bottom weight, would St Tropez not be under sufferance off it's current merit rating of 96?

bayern wrote: Frodo, if 60.0kgs will be top weight and 52.0kgs bottom weight, would St Tropez not be under sufferance off it's current merit rating of 96?

All depends if Legal Eagle runs or not - if I were the connections, I would send him to Cape Town and prepare him for the Met - he ran in the July of his 'old' rating (the 120 was obtained in the Jubilee) and could not win - yes the track could have been an issue and he did not get the best passage - still imo to now expect him to win a proper handicap with a 120 rating, is going to be tough - so rather go for the Met where he will be competitively weighted

So to my reasoning French Navy will go into the Summer Cup as the top weight off 113 carrying 60 - I see nothing in the conditions relating to minimum weight carried - but being a true handicap, then St Tropez off 99 will carry 53 - so won't be under sufferance

Frodo wrote:

bayern wrote: Frodo, if 60.0kgs will be top weight and 52.0kgs bottom weight, would St Tropez not be under sufferance off it's current merit rating of 96?

All depends if Legal Eagle runs or not - if I were the connections, I would send him to Cape Town and prepare him for the Met - he ran in the July of his 'old' rating (the 120 was obtained in the Jubilee) and could not win - yes the track could have been an issue and he did not get the best passage - still imo to now expect him to win a proper handicap with a 120 rating, is going to be tough - so rather go for the Met where he will be competitively weighted

So to my reasoning French Navy will go into the Summer Cup as the top weight off 113 carrying 60 - I see nothing in the conditions relating to minimum weight carried - but being a true handicap, then St Tropez off 99 will carry 53 - so won't be under sufferance

if I was mr tarry I would leave legal eagle in the summer cup so French navy caarys 56.5 and he puts plenty below him under sufferance and then scratch him once the weights cannot be changed...legal eagle race at turfontein will be the presidents challenge in april over 2000m with the conditions suiting him perfectly along with the met ..

@ Frodo and Pirates, thanks for your opinions, most interesting. On the lighter side, because I have taken a bet on French Navy, I hope Mr. Tarry opts for Pirate's "way forward".

pirates wrote:

Frodo wrote:

bayern wrote: Frodo, if 60.0kgs will be top weight and 52.0kgs bottom weight, would St Tropez not be under sufferance off it's current merit rating of 96?

All depends if Legal Eagle runs or not - if I were the connections, I would send him to Cape Town and prepare him for the Met - he ran in the July of his 'old' rating (the 120 was obtained in the Jubilee) and could not win - yes the track could have been an issue and he did not get the best passage - still imo to now expect him to win a proper handicap with a 120 rating, is going to be tough - so rather go for the Met where he will be competitively weighted

So to my reasoning French Navy will go into the Summer Cup as the top weight off 113 carrying 60 - I see nothing in the conditions relating to minimum weight carried - but being a true handicap, then St Tropez off 99 will carry 53 - so won't be under sufferance

if I was mr tarry I would leave legal eagle in the summer cup so French navy caarys 56.5 and he puts plenty below him under sufferance and then scratch him once the weights cannot be changed...legal eagle race at turfontein will be the presidents challenge in april over 2000m with the conditions suiting him perfectly along with the met ..

I know after the final declarations and when the field is announced, if the top weight is not 60kgs it will be moved up to 60kgs and all others will move up accordingly including the ones under suferrence. Leagle Eagle has to be scratched after the final field is out for the weights to stay the same.

pirates wrote:

Frodo wrote:

bayern wrote: Frodo, if 60.0kgs will be top weight and 52.0kgs bottom weight, would St Tropez not be under sufferance off it's current merit rating of 96?

All depends if Legal Eagle runs or not - if I were the connections, I would send him to Cape Town and prepare him for the Met - he ran in the July of his 'old' rating (the 120 was obtained in the Jubilee) and could not win - yes the track could have been an issue and he did not get the best passage - still imo to now expect him to win a proper handicap with a 120 rating, is going to be tough - so rather go for the Met where he will be competitively weighted

So to my reasoning French Navy will go into the Summer Cup as the top weight off 113 carrying 60 - I see nothing in the conditions relating to minimum weight carried - but being a true handicap, then St Tropez off 99 will carry 53 - so won't be under sufferance

if I was mr tarry I would leave legal eagle in the summer cup so French navy caarys 56.5 and he puts plenty below him under sufferance and then scratch him once the weights cannot be changed...legal eagle race at turfontein will be the presidents challenge in april over 2000m with the conditions suiting him perfectly along with the met ..

This is reminiscent of the Durban July of Horse Chestnut and Fort Defiance. Dr Kock did not get away with that strategy but rules may have changed subsequently.

you guys have a lot of faith in last years 3yo male crop now 4yos ,they weren't the best around in fact not one finished in the first 4 of the rothmans..added to that fact the November handicap was won in easy fashion by a 5yo leaving the 4yos trailing in behind him..saying all that the antepost betting on this market hinges totally on whether legal eagle takes his place or not..by the way bouclette top has been raised 6 pounds for his win and is now a 114 so im sure alec laird will be hoping legal eagle also accepts to run otherwise at the moment he would have to carry top weight ..