Merit Ratings Three Year Olds

The Investec Cape Derby and the $1m on Saturday posed interesting challenges for the handicapper.
The Derby winner It's My Turn has jumped from 87 to 101. 4th placed Black Arthur (96) seems to have been the line horse. 2nd placed Brazuca thus ran 12 below his raing of 109. Was it the trip, or the poor ride, or a bit of both?
6th placed Paladin remains on 77 as he was unplaced, but ran to a rating of 94. He is a penalty kick if entered in a handicap race next time out.

3rd placed Victorious Jay seems to have been used as the line horse in the $1m, and he stays on 104. Winner Illuminator goes to 102, getting the limit raise of 6, instead of the 105 achieved. Silver Mountain drops one to 110, although clearly ran well below this rating. Seventh Plain drops to a 107.
For once, I think the handicappers have been quite conservative. An aggressive approach would be to use Exit Here (5th) as the line horse. That would have meant that Illuminator ran 111 and VJ 110, with Seventh Plain and Silver Mountain running 106. I am not suggesting that this would be the correct approach, but it will be interesting to see what Illuminator and VJ achieve next time. Hard Days Night went to 98 and he too should be watched for improvement.

Thank you Peter

The ratings of these races tends to be subjective but I fail to see the Black Arthur,@ 96, as being the correct yardstick ..............other than that "one off" run with Strydom up, he confirmed previous form with Marinesco/Kemal Kavur,which would seem to me to be more conservative but more reliable.
Anyway ,time will tell, but for the time being I'll stick with my ratings .......................IMO this could be a repeat of overrated 3 yr olds!

Insofar as the $1m race ,the official ratings have been brought closer to mine as I believed that Silver Mountain's runs against the fillies were slightly overrated(as posted at the time)
I don't think anything in this race will be in the top 5 of this crop of 3yr olds.
Silver Mountain may well turn out one of the best fillies,of course!

last year the 3 yo crop was way overated but this year the colts especially over the classic distances look very good ..the dekock 3yo who ran 3rd in the queens plate noah from goa gives me plenty hope and imo the horse he beat in the dingaans new predator and the 3rd placed horse abishiri will make the Gauteng triple crown very exciting...new predator by an english derby winner in new approach is my top 3yo from 1800 to 2400m and can definitely see a 3yo colt winning the rothmans july this year especially with the older middle distance horses like legislate future etc going for the 4 million rand presidents challenge instead of the rothmans..

pirates wrote: last year the 3 yo crop was way overated but this year the colts especially over the classic distances look very good ..the dekock 3yo who ran 3rd in the queens plate noah from goa gives me plenty hope and imo the horse he beat in the dingaans new predator and the 3rd placed horse abishiri will make the Gauteng triple crown very exciting...new predator by an english derby winner in new approach is my top 3yo from 1800 to 2400m and can definitely see a 3yo colt winning the rothmans july this year especially with the older middle distance horses like legislate future etc going for the 4 million rand presidents challenge instead of the rothmans..

I would not write off Brazuca either - I don't think he was himself on the day, as the betting drift suggested - I don't blame the jock either, he was scrubbing at the horse just after the jump already, the horse just had no pace on the day and imo JP did a good job in actually getting him up to run 2nd - many others may have given up the ghost being so far back.......

Frodo wrote:

pirates wrote: last year the 3 yo crop was way overated but this year the colts especially over the classic distances look very good ..the dekock 3yo who ran 3rd in the queens plate noah from goa gives me plenty hope and imo the horse he beat in the dingaans new predator and the 3rd placed horse abishiri will make the Gauteng triple crown very exciting...new predator by an english derby winner in new approach is my top 3yo from 1800 to 2400m and can definitely see a 3yo colt winning the rothmans july this year especially with the older middle distance horses like legislate future etc going for the 4 million rand presidents challenge instead of the rothmans..

I would not write off Brazuca either - I don't think he was himself on the day, as the betting drift suggested - I don't blame the jock either, he was scrubbing at the horse just after the jump already, the horse just had no pace on the day and imo JP did a good job in actually getting him up to run 2nd - many others may have given up the ghost being so far back.......

I agree ..............this is a horse that desperately unlucky not to have won a group 1 while still a maiden.........when I talk about overrated 3 yr olds ,I refer to this Derby (as happened to Jackson and Futura who were both given slightly too high ratings IMO) ...........and I think the placed horses (other than Brazuca)are now 5 points too high!
Where I do differ ,is that the commentator made that comment about being "scrubbed" but I think the horse was being "scrubbed" to do something that doesn't come naturally to him............The early pace was good due to Marcus's tactics and they were trying to hold position and not get cut off by the badly drawn horses.....The horse was full of running from the top of the straight but couldn't find a clear run and the last 150m completely belied the first 150m....but again ,time will tell!
All things being equal,and subject to soundness,I think he will be a real force in Durban!
(as posted on Saturday .......... he ran some 8 lengths below his ability (on my ratings)

pirates wrote: especially with the older middle distance horses like legislate futura etc going for the 4 million rand presidents challenge instead of the rothmans..

Aaaah, yes..

I have to agree with you guys about the three year olds. I would like to throw another name into the pool even though its very early days for this horse and that is Ten Gun Salute. He is up this Sunday and should be banker in everything. He is only now learning his trade and has an action second to none. Its definitely going to be a fantastic Natal season.

I would again like to thank you guys for your wonderful contibutions to ABC and I am sure many of our silent visitors are learning by the day.

neigh wrote: I have to agree with you guys about the three year olds. I would like to throw another name into the pool even though its very early days for this horse and that is Ten Gun Salute. He is up this Sunday and should be banker in everything. He is only now learning his trade and has an action second to none. Its definitely going to be a fantastic Natal season.

Following TGS from his first run!!...nicely bred individual!!

pirates wrote: last year the 3 yo crop was way overated but this year the colts especially over the classic distances look very good ..the dekock 3yo who ran 3rd in the queens plate noah from goa gives me plenty hope and imo the horse he beat in the dingaans new predator and the 3rd placed horse abishiri will make the Gauteng triple crown very exciting...new predator by an english derby winner in new approach is my top 3yo from 1800 to 2400m and can definitely see a 3yo colt winning the rothmans july this year especially with the older middle distance horses like legislate future etc going for the 4 million rand presidents challenge instead of the rothmans..

Funny how things are perceived and then a few people agree and suddenly its a well known thing.
This time last year...3yo fillies were thought to be awesome and the colts not so much. Then fillies got beat every time they met the colts, and LE and French Navy have proven to be top class. Harrys son did not let his rating down overseas either. Yet the feeling they were not all that good persisted despite evidence to the contrary.The reason the colts were not well thought of was the top 2yo's were getting beaten, and every feature produced a new disappointment.
Well a month ago the same was happening with this years 3yo and even the weekend produced winners that were not rated previous to this month. So what's different?...Noah Ran a cracker in the QPl is all really. Which to be honest was a major feat but it was a bit of a strange running with all the times on the day being a bit iffy.

I agree that there are some very promising 3yo and some close fought features look on the cards, but I'm not convinced these lot will be any different to last years lot and the best 3yo may yet to show him/herself

Imo It's My Turn is the best 3yo in the country atm. Black Arthur ran his best race and the first three enjoyed the trip hence the improvement. The fist nine in the derby have a great career ahead of them. Silver Mountain is the best filly but it would be interesting to see her over 2000m....