SIFTING THROUGH THE WRECKAGE

The July has come and gone again for another year.

Most of the pundits have ended up with egg on their faces. This victim managed to escape with only R10k of 'damage' - for which I am actually quite grateful as I restricted my activity to the July only and resisted the temptation to nibble at the supporting races which would probably have only magnified my horrendously inaccurate picks.......

Now is not the time to replay the multitude of panel discussions which dealt with the race & much of the supporting card unless you wish to be cautioned for next year. I hope the panel members did not put too much of their money where the mouths went or they must be suffering from a severe bout of retching as I write this!

I mentioned in a post prior to the July that big race meetings should be avoided if punting is your game. Better to simply 'flutter & socialise' despite the fact that this represents one of the few opportunities to 'get on' without eliciting squeals of pain & outrage from odds layers.

Habitual punters tend to overlook some unique issues which are in play for a big race:

There are usually fully 18 'live' runners. Yes - there are inevitably a handful that can be discarded on strict form study but they nevertheless remain 'live' on the basis of intent, preparation and fitness.

So your fancy starts off at a simple arithmetic level as a 17/1 shot to deliver no matter how good experts would have you believe that runner is. Throw in a second selection and that contracts to a 9/1 chance that you are on a winner. These are not good odds for a joyous outcome, people..............

Now factor in form, well being, draws, weather, rumour, tipster 'noise' etc., & the whole shebang takes on a decidedly lottery hue rather than a 'big punt' proposition.

On the very same day you could have backed the Chiefs to beat the Crusaders at odds of 12/10 (or slightly better). The 'starting artithmetic' possibility of this outcome was comparatively a mere 2/1 against you although probability dictated that the third option of the draw is, in betting parlance, only a 4% likelihood. So 2/1 against the Chiefs winning was an extreme likelihood but nevertheless an arithmetic reality.

Now who would be interested in backing this 'horse' at 12/10? Hardly the basis for a life changing win. Clearly not until you consider that the opposition comprised only two other runners - namely the opposing Crusaders & The Draw. No relatively unconsidered Conglomerates in sight!

Maybe this is why most sane citizens restrict their horse racing activities to 2/3 times a year and leave the rest of it to nutters such as myself!

However - and working from memory only - I must commend Graham Hawkins on steadfastly & repeatedly recommending Punta Arenas as a likely candidate to win an earlier feature at odds of 12/1 ( my type of horse bet!) & the Form Organisation - whose unemotional form analysis threw up 5 'most likely on known form & ability' potential July winners ( and only 4 after one late scratching) amongst which small group lurked the eventual winner. Score one for form study.

....and well done to those 3,4 winning Pick 6 ticketholders who became multi millionaires in the space of an afternoon. Your Ferrari dealer awaits you.....although you may need to go 'slightly used' as opposed to brand spanking new at current prices.

"The best horse doesn't win the July but the luckiest one" Derek Brugman.

For me, The Conglomerate shouldn't have even been in the race.

I thought he had a chance last year! Didn't even look at him this time!

Funny game this -I thought Legal Eagle was a blinder originally and POSTED(no arm) that I made the dangers The Conglomerate (Higher rated than LE early last year)and Punta Arenas,at the weights.
Wasn't happy when they scratched LE ,but at least my conspiracy theory worked-Why scratch the Jooste's best chance yet(IMO)and I couldn't have St Tropez at the weights,so that left me the winner ................and Punta Arenas in the consolation!
The wheel turns in this great game.........Justice for my Wylie Hall disappointment :woohoo:

Bob tipped him at 50/1

Whatever we all think and comment this Derek Brugman is a switched on cookie and Jooste a lucky man to have him on board and Joey is just Joey (nothing wrong)

More proof that a bad draw is just a good excuse for our illustrious Jockeys :ohmy:

We had a blast at turfies and i tipped a few for old times sake on my old tipping page just for fun and games. My first and 2nd choices ran dismal in almost all races but the roughies i tipped to include kept us in the place accumalator that we won but only a few % but we still got just over 30/1 for our money. I just love the big days when you know all will be trying and if you study form and dont listen to any comments and rumours and egos you can find the value.
Outsiders to add
R1 nr 11 victory takeover
R2 nr 11 tipo tinto
R4 nr 7 solar star
R5 nr 3 dawn calling
R6 nr 9 oversure
R7 nr 14 the conglomerate
R9 nr 1 caddy master
R10 nr 6 cuvee brut
R11 nr 11 bunker bill
R12 nr 1 sail south

Great post Garrick

Awesome post Garrick.

Echo those sentiments though you said it best.

By and large, most of the panel interviews, July pre party events, July gallops, tipsters, experts were all guessing/ knew little. Amidst the overwhelming guesswork, one or few or their tips hit. Doesn't make any Einstein; just lucky.

Lesson: Play your own guesswork, hope for the best. Don't get drawn in by the herd mentality.

rob faux wrote: Funny game this -I thought Legal Eagle was a blinder originally and POSTED(no arm) that I made the dangers The Conglomerate (Higher rated than LE early last year)and Punta Arenas,at the weights.
Wasn't happy when they scratched LE ,but at least my conspiracy theory worked-Why scratch the Jooste's best chance yet(IMO)and I couldn't have St Tropez at the weights,so that left me the winner ................and Punta Arenas in the consolation!
The wheel turns in this great game.........Justice for my Wylie Hall disappointment :woohoo:

Why wasn't anton smart enough to see this? Conglomerate battled to get past saratoga dancer in its penultimate run
Was beaten comfortably in the 1900 sometimes we need a crystal ball
The july has become a lottery, the track a disgrace gold circle fix it you have year to do so please!!!!