PE today and the 2nd run after a rest

Interesting analysis Whoisu. Hypothetically speaking, on what your examinations reveal, what would his chances be in a race like the July or more probably the Gold Cup ( which I think...and stand corrected, would be his main goal)

Depends, your trainer would have to give you feedback on his condition post race.

Last years champion stayer, and I can't remember the name, was rated on my list at around 111. I figure that's the kind of rating needed to win a race like the gold cup. If your horse could pull off a 74+ rating over 2400m, then I am quite convinced that he could get the 100+ rating needed to be very competitive in the Gold Cup.

But as you know, there is a lot between this race and that race. Status quo is I would say you have a horse capable of winning the cup -- depends how patient one is and of course what competition is around?

Where you are at now is knowing that the horse could do it....question is ....now or later, only your trainer can tell you that.

Of course the rating is only a guideline, there are a million other factors to consider -- horses running style, pace, track, surface,etc.....

The horse is around average over 1800-2000, and obviously starts coming into his own at 2400+.

This is of course based off his racing record, and I have no way of knowing what his actual work over the middle distances is...

I'll answer your question more confidently after his next run

I am sorry, didn't mean to offend --- by average in this case, i meant the average A class performer

I rated Aquanaut over Greyville 3200 at 110
London News over 2000m at 60

You remember that wonderful horse "Hawkins" , over 2400m I rated him at 71.29

Here's one you may be interested in

ES Vital 2400m 76.76 I don't know anything about it's current status or form, but if it stayed 3200 and you bumped it in the Cup, may have some competition. That would then point me to Miss Galelei (76.83 2400)if she stayed 3200.

Of course we don't know which one will stay on better over the much longer distance, and I suggest based off your horses win...that it's potential rating is around 75-77, unless this was his best effort.

Actually if it was my horse, and suffering no ill effects off it's last run...I would see no reason not to run it in the July....and I would rate him an excellent chance

---

though not unbeatable. Unfortunately I see he's not in the field---sad, would have been a big runner there.

I've taken some nice ante-post bets on Ser de Carerra and Bound By Honour, so i think your horse could have been right there.

I have not had time to look at them all - but here are my early ratings based off 2000m - a lot not yet tested the trip, so will have to see:

Ser De Carerra : 64 (Could Improve - hoping last run has done no harm)
Buscador : 56
Russian Sage : 55 (Improvement Possible)
Bound By Honour : 55 (Improvement Possible)
Singing Sword: 54 (Improvement Possible)
Pick Six: 54 (Improvement Possible)
Tan Can: 54
Lubricator: 54
Appelate Court: 54 (May do a bit better)
Pocket Power: 51 (Improvement Possible)


I only had Kings Gambit rated at 40 over 1800m, and 39 Over 2400 -- compare to Bill of Rights at 74+, but obviously we had not seen the best of Kings Gambit.

Richmond Park another sad exclusion from the July? I am sure he would have been seen to do some exhilarating stuff in the finish, although probably just beyond his range.

The real handicapping test is to figure how much better they are than the exposed form - and the improvement is not relative to exposed form, there could be nothing more to come, or a lot more to come...

And to end it all, if the pace is as slow as last year --- then anything goes!

Whoisu write:

"Pocket Power: 51 (Improvement Possible)" & "The real handicapping test is to figure how much better they are than the exposed form"

Who, I take it that said numbers are not based on anything from last year - lol!

Or do your numbers really place PP @10th, in which case I'll take all of the 12/1 that they calculate dbl-lol!!

Intrigued, yet amused, Jim.

Thanks for the feedback....

I don't rate Pocket power 10th, the numbers rate him somewhere about 15th. But as you know, numbers mean nothing -- and I don't believe he's been tested yet, so the rating means nothing...until we know where his melting point is.

All that the numbers tell me, is that about 10 horses haven't yet been tested by the competition they've met, and hence should have a shot at gold.

Purely from an odds perspective though, he has an equal chance as 10 or so other runners so the 12/1 is probably indicative of his chances.

The X factor, is only available to the connections and the trainers and not to the humble punter --- so that leaves the rest on guesswork.

My betting is based off a system of benchmarking. Benchmarking horses against current and previous horses, and analysing the potential for them to better or exceed the best ratings I have. The only time you can really benchmark a horse is when you've seen it reach "failure mode", the rest is just speculation.

Pocket Power probably displays the highest stakes per run earnings, and that would suggest that the probability of his equalling the rating of say Hawkins, is quite high......

There are a few lower down the list, who have won comfortably off ratings of 44+ Like San Sebastian Bay and Strategic News. In the case of Bill Of Rights a 4.5 length Victory was actually hiding another 20 points on my rating scale. So even these could pop up on the day at the front of the field.

Thats racing....In a race like this, No connection is going to blatantly say - "My horse will win it". Some of these horses will only be at full throttle on the big days like this. I fear that Ser De Carerra has played a hand too early...but 450/1 was very attractive odds

Just as a final say on the matter....my horses will only ever run for glory, where they are not going to be extended. Every other run is for conditioning or for evaluation. Unless of course you're talking about a 4/5 year old going into the July or Gold Cup then the reward warrants stepping up to full throttle and closing the bank account.

There is an old horse running in SA, who still has never been tested by his peers, of course he is getting long in the tooth and maybe not as sharp as he used to be.

Horses name : Dunford

gather you didn't like the fella

Aha....I was beginning to wonder?

Do I know you from somewhere?

L. Arendse, Edenville you would know me as Lenny though...strange, I don't know you?

Actually not in Edenville much, as my partners and I move around a lot, currently doing some BPL proto's in a large Municipality, which I am not allowed to mention for now........but I cannot think where else but edenville you would know me from?

or you might know me as Wash machine Arendse----(Washi) ? man you've got me going now?

Nom, you were doing so well too - lol!