Greyville Sunday 9th April

Umzimkulu Stakes
The official merit ratings are very misleading due to the artificial constraints on the handicappers. In particular, the ratings of Gimme Six and The Secret is Out are understated. The Secret is Out gave 3kg to Sail, going down by 2L, and hence should be rated 2 points greater than Sail instead of 3 points less. Gimme Six ran just 8 lb behind Just Sensual last time out, so should be rated above 100, yet is still on an official 93.
The Secret is Out has to give 3kg to Sail and Final Judgement under the conditions of this race, and this should prove too much. Sail is officially rated 1 lb ahead of FJ, yet their collateral form indicates that while there is little between them, FJ is slightly the better of the two.
Gimme Six and Dawn Calling receive 2 kg from FJ and Sail. As two year olds, Dawn Calling was just behind FJ except in the Thekweni where FJ ran no sort of race from a bad draw in wet going. If Dawn Calling bounces back to her best form she is in with a chance at these weights. Gimme Six is weighted to win if reproducing her last run.
Final Judgement is proven over this course and distance, and runs well fresh.
I expect her to fight this out with Gimme Six and Sail, with Dawn Calling and Secret is Out the others who could fill the quartet.

Byerly Turk
Official ratings again are misleading. Copper Force ran a cracker last time when only beaten less than 2L by William Longsword at levels. He is obviously much better than his 91 rating, and with the scratching of Red Chestnut Road is a clear first selection to win this at the weights. Africa Rising looks next best, and is also better than his current 96, but was 2L behind Copper Force last time at level weights.
Gunner had excellent 2yo form, and is a threat if bouncing back to his best, but has been disappointing his last few runs.
There are a few improving sorts, but they would have to make massive improvement to beat Copper Force.

Thank you Peter

I'll be having a nibble at Copper Force @ 2/1. I think it's a fair price considering the uncertainties. First time right handed and might perhaps need it. Thought his run to the best 3yo William Longsword was outstanding especially from that draw.

Africa Rising is the main danger having track experience and is a talented sort himself but it's a question of how fit Copper Force is.

7) 11 Pirogue 10-1

Sorry, I see there is already a thread for Greyville.

The Secret is Out has acclimatised well to Durban. She seems to love it there and feel she will put her best foot forward.

Considering we gave Sail 3kg in that Pinnacle race a few months back and she unfortunately bled but only finished 2-lengths back we think she is in with a chance.

I'm not convinced about Copper Force. Ran a cracker last time but had the benefit of running himself into form with a bunch of races in succession.
Most of Snaiths horses that showed form in the Cape had similar preps or were just that much better than the rest. The horses that were going in with one or 2 preps to their aimed races were disappointing, so unless they got that sorted am wary of the first few runs from the stable....sprinters excepted .

Africa Rising I think might be the one now with the scratching.

Does anyone have any strong thoughts on Mr O'Neill today? Very short in the betting and the way Warfarer won last time, that looks value. Obviously Warfarer won on Poly last time and this is turf today.

I don't like the non 3yo's in the race. Dress for Success must be in with a shout but the Kannemeyers must k ow if it's held by Mr O'Neill by a line through Little Chapel

Will Mr O'Neill win?

Morning guys Seattle Spell is not running over his correct distance and I dont know why he is 5 to 1. Place at best

Thank you Neigh, always a pleasure to read your posts

DOUBLE (WIN/PLACE)

JUST CRUISED IN
SON OF SILVER

:woohoo: :evil: :woohoo: