Kenilworth Wednesday 20/9/17

Some nice sorts out tomorrow, most will be using it as gallops to get fit. But nice horses out nonetheless.

Tap O' Noth vs Our Mate Art and throw in Cot Campbell and you've got yourself an intriguing race. Interesting to watch.

MasterOfMyFate wrote: Some nice sorts out tomorrow, most will be using it as gallops to get fit. But nice horses out nonetheless.

Tap O' Noth vs Our Mate Art and throw in Cot Campbell and you've got yourself an intriguing race. Interesting to watch.

Lots of money for newbies tomorrow

Race 1: Heart of a legend ran well to some decent sorts early on, then seems to have lost her way over 1400m – perhaps 1000m will bring her back to that earlier promise.(Rating 271) on current form she comes in about a length under the median for maiden winners. She might be more useful than that over the 1000m. In any event it will take a just over average debutant to beat her - and the frenetic betting on saltire might be significant.

Race 2: Sea Fury from a knowledgeable stable was strongly supported on debut - must be better than debut run - watch this one! Many other potential first timers. Seeing some support again - but other first time runners seeing very strong support as well. best of the exposed runners is One For One about 1.5 lengths under the median - choose your debutant.

Race 3: Dayonaut must be the one to beat. But how likely is it that all three or four expensive purchases flop - so maybe a very good one will emerge from those. What A Winner is another with huge potential. Frenetic support for Dance a Jig, Hotel Cipriani and even Century Gold. Dayonaut and What a Winner less than half a length over median at 1000m and 1200m respectively- So these first timers would have to be quite smart to beat either on debut. What A Winner could even show improvement over the 1200, making it tougher.

Race 4: Photocopy looks the form and is obviously above average on the softer ground, but has to step up in trip and prove that he can run on good going as well - so not a well established favorite. One negative imo is a stable that boasts a 3.5% strike rate , hard to take odds on that - Risky Rambo has shown a little at this trip but very weak. The strong support on Hundreds can be valued in the face of what seems very light competition.

Race 5: Gadget Man has to be one of the better maidens to pass through those ranks recently, and his last two runs if discounted make him hard to beat - the 1400m is going to be a stiffer test, but he should have no trouble with it. This is the obvious next step for Hemmingway and Undercover but they could be anything. Storm Front and Chestnut Wild waiting in the wings.

Race 6: Tap 'O Noth overwhelms the rest of the field on virtually every indicator, and at the very least should make for a very entertaining race. KAMPALA CAMPARI looks about the only one that might get close enough to challenge

Race 7: Looking like a matchup between Goodtime Gal and Seattle Gold - I would lean to Goodtime Gal. It is What It Is a very interesting runner in this line up.

Race 8: Not sure why it's taken Ostinato so long to get back to 1400m after what was arguably best performance behind remember this - on that run cannot be seen to remain in maiden company, I am however somewhat interested in the very smart debut from Silvano filly Supreme Love - don't doubt 1400m will be no problem and should be an interesting tussle between the two, since I don't see either lingering much longer in this division.



Race 1: First Timer
Race 2: First Timer/Sea Fury
Race 3: What A Winner / Dayonaut/ Firs timer
Race 4: First Timer /Photocopy/Risky Rambo/
Race 5: Gadget Man
Race 6: Tap 'O Noth
Race 7: Goodtime Gal
Race 8: Ostinato/Love Supreme

It Looks a nice days racing - but a little difficult to frame a bet.

I think I will have an interest in Tap 'o Noth.

I still need to decide whether Gadget Man and What A Winner may be my worthwhile value bets.

Deeno wrote:

MasterOfMyFate wrote: Some nice sorts out tomorrow, most will be using it as gallops to get fit. But nice horses out nonetheless.

Tap O' Noth vs Our Mate Art and throw in Cot Campbell and you've got yourself an intriguing race. Interesting to watch.

Lots of money for newbies tomorrow

Can't wait to see if Sark is any good.

Weather forecast is sunny with light south easter (headwind).
Last meeting at Kenilworth winter course before the move to new-look Durbanville.

Race 1: Heart of a Legend and Savage Garden the best of the raced runners, but quite weak form and would be no surprise to see first timers fight this out.
Race 2: Even less form amongst the raced runners, and expect first timers to dominate.
Race 3: Dayonaut has solid form but always finds something to beat him. Hotel Cipriani showed good improvement last time and is the danger. What a Winner has showed some ability.
We have Turnberry making his debut- he is a nice sort but is still quite soft and should need this run.
Race 4: Hundreds is a very nice colt, and has had the benefit of a grass gallop. Has a winning chance, but unfortunately he has pulled a wide draw which makes it very tricky over this trip. By the time I looked at the betting he had shortened to 2/1 which is too skinny for me in a competitive field.
Spectra Force has strong form and a nice draw. Photocopy has had two good sprints and is bred for the extra- top jockey and plum draw and is a big runner. Shadow Warrior and Black Pimpinel also have fair form.
Race 5: A competitive race. Western Storm won well last time and if regaining his top form is still well below his peak rating and has scope for a few more wins. Hemingway and Undercover Agent are improving sorts and must be respected. Triple Explosion has solid form.
Race 6: Our Mate Art is the one to beat if not needing the run. Tap O North is a very promising sort and is the main danger. Cot Campbell is another decent sort and his current fitness is not in doubt.
Race 7: A tricky race as some classy fillies make their seasonal debuts over a trip that is on the short side.
Race 8: Ostinato is the one to beat. Love Supreme put up a good debut but draws wide here. Star Evolution needed her first run and could improve enough to win this.Fours a Crowd could fill the quartet.

@ MOMF, regards Sark, with that price tag i think it will be more of a learning experience, coupled with the fact that the breeding would suggest he will appreciate further, and something i always take note of, November foals. Not all, but a few late foals take slightly longer to mature and get the hang of racing. If he does win tomorrow, then follow him until beaten, conversely, i don't imagine they will give him a punishing ride. I think the same applies to November Storm, in my book anyway. Not a betting race, but definitely one to watch, agreed.

See the guys are keeping an eye on the supported first timers. Will be interested to hear PeterD's comments regards Hundreds in the 4th. Whilst we all wish him well, the horse has been supported from 33/10 into 18/10, he will have to be special to win first time out from draw 12/12. For me the value lies with Photocopy. He could have been entered in either races 2 or 3 over the sprint distances, where the fields are not overly big, so draws 10/10 (if drawn) would not have been insurmountable. I don't believe they would have entered him in a 1400m race if they didn't think he would see out the trip. Fuzzy logic, but i will stick with it.

The other horse i think will win is Tap O'Noth. Watched the replay of the Langerman, and despite being extremely green, he put 4.0 lengths between himself and the rest, and that was only after getting to the front with about 220m left to run. This is a smart horse, follow his progress.

Bayern, Marshall said in an interview that Tap O'Noth could be as good as William Longsword. Huge praise there as we know how good he was. So there's some more confidence for you.

Looks like the leading guineas candidate thus far.

Thank you Mr Peter D, after taking a break recently with some other forced engagements, a little hesitant and rusty --- so your valuable post at least suggesting I am not completely off the track thanks --- the insightful direction is very helpful.

MasterOfMyFate wrote: Bayern, Marshall said in an interview that Tap O'Noth could be as good as William Longsword. Huge praise there as we know how good he was. So there's some more confidence for you.

Looks like the leading guineas candidate thus far.

Thanks, if you can watch the replay of the Langerman, he kept wanting to hang towards company on his inside. Byleveld worked really hard to keep him straight, but once he hit the front, he quickened away from them. If he didn't want to lug in that day, the winning margin would have been bigger, no doubt.

P6:
1.3.8/ 11/ 1-5.7.9.11/ 2-4/ 1-3.5.7/ 1-3.13
R1440 = Full unit

P/A:
1.5.6/ 1.3/ 11/ 5.9.7.11/ 2.3/ 1.2.7/ 1-3.13
R576 = Full unit (hoping to catch it a few times)

have not had a bet on horses since end of july,but had a look at todays card and i am having a nice bet on tap o noth @12/10.this horse looks special and i just hope he is fit and ready to win.

winzip wrote: have not had a bet on horses since end of july,but had a look at todays card and i am having a nice bet on tap o noth @12/10.this horse looks special and i just hope he is fit and ready to win.

Good for you, starting from today I am going to try and not have a bet on the horses until Dubai kicks off in January.