Greyville Turf Sunday

mydada wrote:

mydada wrote: The opening leg depends solely on the well being of Red Chestnut Road.Delpech rides so you decide

just to point out an interesting detail i spotted last night was Red Chestnut Road's (Misty Birnam) winning debut time of 68.51 was like 6,10 lenghts quicker then Dawn Callings behind Princess Analia

One difficulty on that point is that the one is recorded on yielding going and the other on good going, further that RCR has only ever won on yielding going. While rare , some horses are specialist soft ground runners, and cannot run on any other surface - not saying this is the case with RCR, but its a factor to consider, since on turf the horse had issues with it's stride. The time difference is 5.42 Lengths in my estimation, but with a 7length winning margin -- obviously RCR not extended and capable of increasing that - if run on yielding going - since there is absolutely no point in comparing the times on the totally different surfaces imo. If one looks at the class of race contested , measured by the prize money of the races then there is no comparison between dawn calling and RCR - the latter winning a 200K race by 6 lengths, but then a horse like Legend would come into the equation winning a 1000k race, as well as the number of subsequent winners that emerged from the races in which it competed. Dawn Calling and Mustang Sonny both show indicators that are very useful at pointing out winners though -- Lowest Weighted horse with apprentice claim, and Jockey overweight.

This is a very good quality field - but it is rather competitive, and many of the runners emerge from very long rests - which is an indicator of itself, only if the horse returns to a favored course or trip.

So while one would claim handicapping superiority by picking the winner here, I would rather think it luck to find the winner

Craig Pienaar wrote: Race 2: Flamenco Dancer debut on poly was good but not the greatest field ever assembled , Emma's Oracle had 2 introductory runs and will be ready to fire over the extra , Cheyne is an interesting booking

first performance radar is of Emma's Oracle and then Flamenco Flyer's

For Race 1 - I have three contenders with two outliers - Rokatenda, Making Miracles, and Aforaway - with Handsome Harvey and Lungi the outliers --- any comments for or against any of the runners?

Adams wrote:

mydada wrote:

mydada wrote: The opening leg depends solely on the well being of Red Chestnut Road.Delpech rides so you decide

just to point out an interesting detail i spotted last night was Red Chestnut Road's (Misty Birnam) winning debut time of 68.51 was like 6,10 lenghts quicker then Dawn Callings behind Princess Analia

One difficulty on that point is that the one is recorded on yielding going and the other on good going, further that RCR has only ever won on yielding going. While rare , some horses are specialist soft ground runners, and cannot run on any other surface - not saying this is the case with RCR, but its a factor to consider, since on turf the horse had issues with it's stride. The time difference is 5.42 Lengths in my estimation, but with a 7length winning margin -- obviously RCR not extended and capable of increasing that - if run on yielding going - since there is absolutely no point in comparing the times on the totally different surfaces imo. If one looks at the class of race contested , measured by the prize money of the races then there is no comparison between dawn calling and RCR - the latter winning a 200K race by 6 lengths, but then a horse like Legend would come into the equation winning a 1000k race, as well as the number of subsequent winners that emerged from the races in which it competed. Dawn Calling and Mustang Sonny both show indicators that are very useful at pointing out winners though -- Lowest Weighted horse with apprentice claim, and Jockey overweight.

This is a very good quality field - but it is rather competitive, and many of the runners emerge from very long rests - which is an indicator of itself, only if the horse returns to a favored course or trip.

So while one would claim handicapping superiority by picking the winner here, I would rather think it luck to find the winner

March 27,2016

news.tabonline.co.za/Full-Results/2016-F...VILLE@27.03.2016.xml

For Race 2 - I shortlisted a whole lot of runners - Flamenco Dancer - nothing in the form book will reveal how good this one is - except, it was a very well backed debutant, lost 2L, raced Green , hung in the finish - (an indicator that she wasn't quite cherry ripe - or was fully exposed) and still got to less than 2 lengths of the winner - and gets the nod from Delpech. -- very hard to back or oppose a horse like that. Lady Li-Lay ran a decent race behind Riverboat Queen in the Cape , rested 116 days, and persists at the trip - has scope for improvement here - showing up at just under a length below median on exposed form - could get better. Cosima has beeen a slow developer, but has gotten to a winning mark behind Fashion Quest - may need a few runs to get back there, but would not surprise if winning. Emma's Oracle - very good debut, beaten short priced favorite next time out , found short, and rested 91 days - now returns, plenty of latent ability indicated there - Throw in Roy's Vogue with potential for improvement beyond the median, and some other outliers like Excellistic and Sweet Treat - and you have a really interesting race - for me it comes down to playing Flamenco Dancer or no bet at all. -

mydada wrote:

Adams wrote:

mydada wrote:

mydada wrote: The opening leg depends solely on the well being of Red Chestnut Road.Delpech rides so you decide

just to point out an interesting detail i spotted last night was Red Chestnut Road's (Misty Birnam) winning debut time of 68.51 was like 6,10 lenghts quicker then Dawn Callings behind Princess Analia

One difficulty on that point is that the one is recorded on yielding going and the other on good going, further that RCR has only ever won on yielding going. While rare , some horses are specialist soft ground runners, and cannot run on any other surface - not saying this is the case with RCR, but its a factor to consider, since on turf the horse had issues with it's stride. The time difference is 5.42 Lengths in my estimation, but with a 7length winning margin -- obviously RCR not extended and capable of increasing that - if run on yielding going - since there is absolutely no point in comparing the times on the totally different surfaces imo. If one looks at the class of race contested , measured by the prize money of the races then there is no comparison between dawn calling and RCR - the latter winning a 200K race by 6 lengths, but then a horse like Legend would come into the equation winning a 1000k race, as well as the number of subsequent winners that emerged from the races in which it competed. Dawn Calling and Mustang Sonny both show indicators that are very useful at pointing out winners though -- Lowest Weighted horse with apprentice claim, and Jockey overweight.

This is a very good quality field - but it is rather competitive, and many of the runners emerge from very long rests - which is an indicator of itself, only if the horse returns to a favored course or trip.

So while one would claim handicapping superiority by picking the winner here, I would rather think it luck to find the winner

March 27,2016

news.tabonline.co.za/Full-Results/2016-F...VILLE@27.03.2016.xml

Sorry my Bad! cf LISTS Red Chestnuts first two races as yielding, gallop giving the same day as Good -- for Dawn Calling and Yielding for RCR - hard to make good decisions on conflicting information -)

Adams i read your post differently but go on with your summaries as they are helpful thank you

Craig Pienaar wrote: Can someone justify the 5/10 price on Rokatenda in the 1st , closer to a 15/10 shot imo , if Making Miracles and young Arries controls the race from the front with that light weight , she looks hard to beat @ 4/1

Three year old filly taking on the boys (and open company) over 2400m, tough ask.

7/1

Rokatenda
Flamenco Dancer
Captain and Master

Race 3 is another poser - first three races, very difficult to make a decision. Starting off with Matthew Lips and African Pharoah. Matthew lips shows up about a length and a bit above median in Gauteng, a more competitive centre than KZN , so has to be respected. African Pharaoh produced a very decent debut - right on par with the KZN median, and will be right up there if any further improvement to come - which is very likely, since having lost 2L and racing green on debut , Great Success - trainer should be pleased with what the horse produced over 1600m, and will probably be much better over 1400m - putting these three horses almost on a par. Secret Service not likely to show much improvement - but can be in the shake up if right on the day. Ram Trip - looks to need a little to get to this level. With Majestic Moon about a half a length behind. With nothing to seperate these runners - the standout posers come in the form of Sherman and Rebel Circus - which on ability should be lengths clear of this field. But I cannot have the stable that hosts Sherman - being the only one of the three behind Eye's Wide Open that has not been able to win - and having such poor strike rate. It might be significant that the Jockey of that day is aboard and the horse get's tongue tie - but the stables performance counts against him - and this is what makes the race unplayable for me - since he could run away with this race, but cannot seriously be backed - BUT , i have been saying for some time now that I would want to see this horse back on the turf at 1600m !!

My Gut Feeling , would be

Rokatenda
Flamenco Dancer
Matthew Lips

But there is no degree of confidence in any of them - since the races are very intersting of themselves.

Majestic Moon has an ew shout in the 3rd