R7, whilst Romantic Crusade (2/1) is the one to beat, actually think Bon Bon (12 to 14/1 depending where you look) is a serious runner here. At first glance the exposed form doesn't look flash however she is down in class on her last run, and has dropped 9 points in the ratings since October. Her last run was against much stronger company, and she clearly wasn't up to that class tiring in the last 400m after leading. On a line through Amazingly (run of the 30/11), Bon Bon is 5.5kgs better off with Evelina (33/10) for a 2.5 length beating, and Evelina and Romantic Crusade are weighted to finish just about on top of each other (run of the 27/09). Forgot to mention, also has Bushy Park (7/1) cold at the weights on the same Amazingly run.
Bon Bon at the current price must be the value in the race.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
Last edit: 7 years 5 months ago by bayern.
The following user(s) said Thank You: PeeKay, Tero, kt6747, durbs
i agree with bayern bon bon must be a runner.You can draw a line through one or 2 runs as she is not a front runner.Im sure Hewitson will give her a peach of a ride and is a interesting jockey booking. My fancies for the day are shall be free has apollo star to beat was beaten 2l giving by doublemint giving it 4kg / cape charlotte 2 Durbanville runs were great 1l off platinum class who won on Saturday and beat princess vicky who i think is rated/ hello summer if repeats debut run and stable coming good again.Marrion belle was backed heavily on debut.L histoire only 4l off doublemint must be a big runner.
Race 1: What a Summer looks the one to beat.
Race 2:Arctic Siren looks the best of the raced runners, but support for the first timer with stable jockey up, so expect a big run from Indian Song.
Race 3: Love Triangle should make further improvement but his last run was a bit disappointing. Quite competitive- my selection is Parisian Gold. Dangers are Floating on Water, He’s Priceless and Middlemarch.
Race 4: Pumeza ran a shocker last time but if regaining her earlier form can win this. Jeovana improved last time and looks next best. Marion Belle fair debut and improvement expected. Rebels Burst is limited but usually thereabouts.
Race 5: Very open. Cape Charlotte reverts to sprinting, and she and Lily Theresa are weak picks.
Race 6: Shall be Free is fit and well and gets a fair draw this time. Has an ew shout in a competitive race. Apollo Star is improving and looks the one to beat. Icon King below best lately, but very well in at the weights if regaining best form. Perovskia is consistent.
Race 7: Another competitive race. Romantic Crusade is doing well and is still improving. Good ew chance. Bon Bon has been running below best the last few, but has been working fine and is well in at the weights at best. Hoping for a better run here. Above Eleven has been kindly treated by the handicapper and I make her the one to beat, but go wide in exotics.
Race 8: Bikini Model has to jump from a wide draw. She is fit and well and with some luck in the running can be right there despite her long odds. Better than her last run when interfered with at the jump. Quite a few with chances- I make Hello Summer the one to beat.
The following user(s) said Thank You: wonbyamile, PeeKay, Tero, Sweet Coetzee, durbs, gregorypillay123
Very tough card latter in the day, but the first three races is were the money is. I have taken what I think is a good value 16/10 three race all to come place.
Race 1 - What a Summer ran in the money of 5 out of the last 6, ran to sum fair sorts, and baring the two first timers of which no money is pouring on 2 should beat all of the races runners easily. Stable jockey on, and 4/10 is nice value, high draw at Durbanville is not Easy, hence the place option.
Race 2 - Artic Siren is an interesting runner, has raced three times and in the first 2 starts has been backed down, in the last start has run third to Sequined of which is a consistant feauture race runner. Of the raced runners has the best form. Not a plum draw as well, and stable jockey is on the very expensive first timer. So I think 5/10 is the way to go as on form and previous betting moves should run in the top three.
Race 3 - Middle of March has run to 3.5 lengths to Springman in its last start, with the latter coming out to win again. Consistent place finder, who seems to be there abouts all the time. Weakfield in what looks a 2 horse race. Good draw and stable jockey up, price won't last and 3/10 is a steal for me to run in top three.
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