Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion

Will post my ratings race by race as i go on ....
Will post in following format.
Current rating , horse , rating achieved today , linehorse

Race 4 1200 5bar race
111 Cirillo 103 yes he ran 8 points lower than his rating!!! Handicapper wont change rating
92 elusive trader 96 handicapper will give 4 points
92 seventh sea 94 handicapper will give 2 points
93 palace chapel 93 linehorse
92 Comanici 92 linehorse
86 Varsity lover 92 ...yes , 6 points better than rating and handicapper cannot touch her now .blackbook!!! In fillies handicap in near future you can put and take if she repeat.
103 temple grafin 91
89 mastagambit 90 linehorse
96 Arabian 89
88 princess ruler 87 linehorse
85 Captainofthesea 86 linehorse
105 van halen 85 ....

Race 5 1600 5bar

This race is a true nightmare to handicap.... basicly impossible and this race WILL make or break careers !!! And the best part is that it was a true run race , much quicker than majorca.
If you use twist of fate , vardy or majestic mozart as linehorse then one world(117) ran either to a 118 or 95 or 103 rating .... so you will quickly say twist of fate must be the linehorse ? Problem is then that the following horses ran above their ratings :
Vardy 23 points above ????
Skye lane 27 points above???
Majestic mozart 15 points above ???
Vikram 21 points above???
Chimichuri 13 points below
Russian beat 9 points above???
Silvanos pride 12 points below
Nao faz mal 12 points above ???
Mr greenlight 3 points above
Sherwood forsest 16 points above ???? 2nd last !!!


I checked every angle and all i say is that some horses going to get hurt or they way way way better than current handicap and are all shoe inns in a handicap next time .
This formline should be closely monitored and will either prove disaster or very very profitable to follow .
Good luck with making a call here mr handicapper , lucky or unlucky they can only adjust up on the first 3 because its a non-blactype race where handicapper cannot use any other than 2nd place or 3rd place as linehorse .
Formline for blackbook to follow very closely!!!

Race 6 cape flying 1000m

Will post in following format.
Current rating , horse , rating achieved today , linehorse

Very easy race to handicap .... 5 horses to prove linehorse .

111 kasimir 115 ... handicapper will probably give 5 points
118 bold respect 112 although running 6 points less , handicapper probably wont drop rating.
106 search party 111 ... will get 5 points by handicapper
110 pacific trader 110 linehorse , and handicapper will use also
111 trip to heaven 110 linehorse
105 sand and sea 106 linehorse
109 speedpoint 106
112 attenborough 106
107 Dutch philip 106 linehorse
99 sir frenchie 104 ... blackbook note .... next time in handicap will be tough to beat with 5 points the handicapper cant penalise him now with.
102 pleasetomeetyou 102 linehorse

Thank you Ziets. What about the other races?

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Will post in following format.
Current rating , horse , rating achieved today , linehorse

Race 7 Derby 2000
Also a true run race ! Today they never crawld . This race again 4 other horses can confirm the linehorse that should be taken and its basicly straight forward .

92 atyaab 98 ....handicapper will probably give him 7 points
94 charles 97 ...handicapper will give 3 points
86 Herodotus 93 .... handicapper will give 7 points
93 Bunker hunt 93 linehorse
96 Helens ideal 92
103 santa clara 91
89 senatla 89 confirm linehorse
92 hudoo magic 88
84 sailing lizard 86 confirm linehorse ( put small note to follow in blackbook)
93 Ovation award 85
87 belgorion 83
79 line editor 81 confirm linehorse ( include small note in blackbook)
82 Seattle force 79 confirm linehorse .

The field was poor against other years but Eyes wide shut ran only 4 points better last year when he won than Atyaab.

Tanx ziets

Will post other 3 races in the morning but again like last year with african night sky i said same day as sunmet that he will open up fav for the july .....

DOUBLEMINT WILL OPEN UP FAV FOR THE JULY AND KAMPALA KAMPARI WILL BE 2ND FAV ......
DOUBLEMINT DONT GET THE 13 POINTS AND KAMPALA NOT THE 9 POINTS THEY RAN ABOVE THEIR RATINGS !!!!!

Zietsman Oosthuizen wrote: Will post other 3 races in the morning but again like last year with african night sky i said same day as sunmet that he will open up fav for the july .....

DOUBLEMINT WILL OPEN UP FAV FOR THE JULY AND KAMPALA KAMPARI WILL BE 2ND FAV ......
DOUBLEMINT DONT GET THE 13 POINTS AND KAMPALA NOT THE 9 POINTS THEY RAN ABOVE THEIR RATINGS !!!!!

if those two are favourites for july then we in the poorhouse already

If any of soqrat or cascapedia qualifies we should see a Mike De Kock speech this year.

Race 8 Majorca

Current rating , horse , rating achieved today , linehorse

109 clouds unfold 115 handicapper will probably make her 116
117 lady in black 112 will probably stay 117
110 front and centre 112 will go up to 112
110 freshnaye 110 linehorse
114 snowdance 109
107 rose in bloom 107 confirm linehorse
105 mayabi gold 105 confirm linehorse
103 Love to boogie 100
101 freedom charter 97
98 sylvan on fire 93
106 fiorella 93
100 Goodtime gal 91

The ride of the day in my opinion was Aldo Domeyr . Watched replay several times , he stalked Superman ( who had his sight on snowdance with 400m to go )on the outside and got into cloud unfold early without superman noticing him , at that stage superman cruised without moving a muscle with snowdance his target to run down in final 200m ..... only when aldo pulled next to him full of runnimg he realised he got caught flatfooted and got into front and centre but it was too late ... aldo got him and put the race to bed.. the Barzalona on poir moi celebration was a bit surprising but he knew he won outsmarting the best jock. Just my opinion. Lady in black ran a little below her ability but she had a very very hard race just 3 weeks ago . She have both these 3 year olds if the clash again .

Hi Ziets
Agree with most of your analysis.
The Derby I would use Helen’s Ideal as the line horse as most of the colts in the first 4 are on the upgrade, so that would add 4 points to your others.

CTS 1600. I would use One World as the line horse as he confirmed earlier form with Twist of Fate. It does mean that horses like Vardy showed huge improvement, but quite possible given that they are lightly raced. I agree that this assumption must be tested on future performances of all behind the first two. I will be very tempted to back any of them in a handicap off their official ratings.

PeterD wrote: Hi Ziets
Agree with most of your analysis.
The Derby I would use Helen’s Ideal as the line horse as most of the colts in the first 4 are on the upgrade, so that would add 4 points to your others.

CTS 1600. I would use One World as the line horse as he confirmed earlier form with Twist of Fate. It does mean that horses like Vardy showed huge improvement, but quite possible given that they are lightly raced. I agree that this assumption must be tested on future performances of all behind the first two. I will be very tempted to back any of them in a handicap off their official ratings.

Every one entitled to their opinions - I would be hesitant to automatically credit Vardy with big improvement; I think one has to take into account that horses just beat the competition without necessarily running to their best every time - so for me I think that both One World and Twist of Fate ran far below their best - even maybe below 100 ...