Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth

NB: Durbanville race meeting 10 Aug 2019 has been moved to Kenilworth.

I understand that when the reconstruction of the track was done
NO DRAINAGE WAS INSTALLED
This despite the input given by an expert
So whats new in racing !!!!

Think the change to Kenilworth could benefit some of my selections as oppose to going round the Durbanville bend. Fancy the treble :-

R2) Lilac Sensation X (R3) Duchess Of State X (R7) Pretty Young Thing

Going through the card :-

R1) Winter Oasis is the marginal choice because of the racing experience, which is not flash. If there is any money for the first timers, Al Bragga (owned by Clan member Neigh) or Captain Turk, put them into your play because neither would have to be too smart to win here. Winter Oasis did compete in open company last time out and in the heavy going, that could stand him in good stead here, but by no means a good thing. Watch the market come race time.

R2) Lilac Sensation, the runner-up in that debut race, Sailing Ship, came out and won by 4.0 lengths in her next start, so I'm hoping Lilac Sensation can show the same natural improvement, considering these two were comfortably clear of the fourth placed finisher (4.50L), who came out and ran second in her next outing.

R3) Duchess Of State, the collateral form behind her debut run is fairly solid. There has been 4 runners since, with a 1st, two seconds and a third place finishers. The immediate market rival, Linda Loves Lace, has let the side down too often, so I'll brass her and stick with what looks to be the one with the most scope for improvement.

R4) Does appear to be a two horse race, and I'm leaning towards Cane Lime 'N Soda. Both starts as a juvenile were in open company, and he made improvement from first to second runs. Ran on over 7 furlongs last time out, with draw 1 (on Saturday), and if getting away on terms, should appreciate the extra furlong - must be the one they all have to beat competing against his own age group.

R5) Again looks like a two horse race, but does have upset potential. I make it a race in two between Crimea and Duntoche, marginally leaning towards the latter, only because of consistency. Go as wide as possible in your P6 and JP.

R6) Another race where a case can be made for the entire field. Having said that, for me, the value lies with Magic Mary, purely on the weights. She should have the beating of Dancing Sally. The favourite, Secret Depths, is a one time winner and too high in the rating (for me anyway), even with the apprentice allowance. The same can be said for Principessa. Whilst Magic Mary has had 18 runs for two wins, she should be competitive in this line-up (or so I'm hoping).

R7) Pretty Young Thing, whilst her rating was achieved over further, she simply hacked in that day. The collateral form is solid, albeit over 1400 and 1600m. The spook could be Casino Queen in receipt of 5.0kgs, but I'll take my chances.

R8) A very open race, rowing in with Ground Control on a good second to Armando off level weights. The worry is the draw and the return from a 97 day rest. For P6 purposes, go as wide as possible.

Opening Lilac Sensation 2/1 was crazy

Will win 5L

Secret Depths was a highway clear of the third horse last time. How did she not pick up a penalty? I think she will be very tough to beat. Best of luck to Peter.

All the best with yr runner Neigh.
Hope she comes home lonely.

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk

ruffian wrote: Secret Depths was a highway clear of the third horse last time. How did she not pick up a penalty? I think she will be very tough to beat. Best of luck to Peter.

That race was very difficult to assess as it had looked a closely handicapped race but the first 2 went 9 lengths clear of the rest. It’s hard to imagine that both the first two ran 20lb above their ratings, although the winner had been rather leniently treated coming into the race on a hatrick, and Secret Depths had run two fair races in feature company. It seems that the handicapper decided to use SD as the line horse. However the winner went up 6 points, and with a length separating them, we would not have been able to complain if we had gone up 3 or 4. I think that the handicapper took into account that the winner won comfortably hands and heels, whereas we were flat to the boards. After 12 very consistent runs SD is well exposed, and the winner is lightly raced and more progressive. In the very heavy going, one has to be cautious about winning margins and quite a few may not have acted in the going. Most of the rest were dropped a point or two. I think it shows that the handicapper applied his mind, looked carefully at the race, the conditions and the way it was run, and did not just blindly do the arithmetic.

In any event, the weights for this race were already framed so we would have run here off our old rating even if we had picked up a penalty for our run last week.

Hi Clanners I have Al Bragga in the 1st. He is a very nice sort and should do well.

All the best Neigh and enjoy the winners enclosure

Just one for me today in the fifth race in that of the Devin Ashby mount "SPENDING MY TIME". All the best and break a leg.

Even if you don't fancy Ground Control, stick it in a multiple or have an on the head punt with Hollywood, who still have it trading at 22/10, when the other bookies have it trading at 16/10, and not because of the scratchings and subsequent adjustments - be quick before the penny drops back at the ranch.

Quiet forgot about "HERCULES GIRL" :side: