Kenilworth Saturday 30 January MET DAY
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Re: Kenilworth Saturday 30 January MET DAY
4 years 4 months ago
Race (1)
Danilo Danilovitch, ran against winners last time out, wasn’t disgraced, should be involved in this finish. Callmemrgreenlight, fancied on debut, was slow away, difficult to know whether he will get away on terms this time round, if he does break on terms could be the one they have to beat, considering he was fancied on debut (1/1).
Race (2)
On the run to Duplicity, Starboard looks the one to beat. Wasn’t given the best of rides last time, hopefully from a decent draw will be competitive at the finish. Looks to be shortening in the market, probably start shorter come race time.
Race (3)
Very open race as the betting would suggest (4/1) the field. Interesting to note that van Niekerk has opted to take the ride on the wide drawn Wolf Man (12/13) as opposed to the decent drawn, Superior Leader, who he has ridden on the last four occasions. Going to brass Superior Leader on that alone, when one considers the recent success Nel and van Niekerk have had. Churchhaven is the horse to beat from a decent draw, may have suffered from the dreaded second run after a rest syndrome last time, looks to have run out of puff. Another open race.
Race (4)
Lay of the day, Fabian. Won once over the distance back on the 01/03/2019 in PE, done better over the sprint distances. Captain Stealth must have the truest rating over the distance, run 5, won 2 and placed in another two, also yet to be unplaced over the course and distance, one win, a second and a third place finish. Certainly weighted to finish ahead of Pinkerton this time round. Pinkerton will run in the first two.
Race (5)
The value must lie with Rio Supremo (16.5/1) who is weighted to finish close to High Hosanna (11/10), now 3.0kg better off for a three length beating. Stable jockey Winnaar has opted for the ride on Imposing Angel, hopping off Rio Supremo, I think he has made the incorrect choice.
Race (6)
Kommetdieding must be the most exciting racing prospect at the moment. The manner in which he won last time out, the extra furlong shouldn’t be a problem. Jumping from a less than ideal draw and has to concede weight to most, but are the others running to their rating? Conversely, Kommetdieding may be ahead of the handicapper and should win this.
Race (7)
Many reputations on the line here. One thing is certain, the pace will be on from the jump. Having said that, Russet Air looks to have targeted this race being the reigning champ. Yet to be unplaced over the distance, probably a good place option, currently 1/1 for a first 4 finish. The problem for Russet Air could be the draw (13/14).
Race (
In the last 10 years, three year old have won on 6 occasions and 12 times in the last 20 years, so the 3 year olds have a good 60% record of being victorious either way one looks at it. Clouds Unfold is bidding to win the race for a record third time. A decent pace is almost guaranteed as there are few who enjoy racing handy. Captain’s Ransom at 1/1 is a bit short in the market, considering she is not getting the full allowance in terms of the ratings and wfa allowance. Something that must be taken into account, the only time Captain’s Ransom had a second run after a rest, she was beaten by a horse who didn’t make this field – albeit she was a juvenile back then. Saturday will be the second time she has a second run after a break, and she will be bumping much stronger opposition. If we use Princess Calla as a collateral line horse, I think Clouds Unfold will prevail here. Clouds Unfold a first three place (3/10) is worth sticking in a multiple.
Race (9)
This could be a lot more open than the betting would suggest. One could make a case for more than half the field. Is there a possibility of an upset, probably, as there could be a lack of pace, then any result is possible. The obvious pace-maker would be Running Brave or maybe Cirillo. Really can’t see Running Brave setting a break-neck pace against this field, and if Cirillo sets the pace, it will be even slower considering this may be a first attempt at the distance. Conversely, if he stacks them up and turns it into a sprint 500 out, things could become interesting as he is a somewhat resolute galloper. Wouldn’t be surprised to see African Night Sky acting as the hare, well drawn and racing fit. He could conceivably set the pace and stay on and win, coming to hand at the right time. I think the outcome will be between the Snaith and Sands stables. On it’s last run, I believe Belgarion will win. Rainbow Bridge will run in the first two, if not winning. Golden Ducat, prep has gone the right way, but was weighted to win his last race. The manner in which he won last time, was certainly workman like, picked himself up off the carpet once headed to fight back and win. Not sure he can repeat those heroics against this calibre. Do It Again, whilst coming along the right way, I think this may have come one race too soon, I could be wrong though, but I’ll take a stand. Queen Supreme, won a slow run race last time, if the pace is slow, we know she can quicken in the blink of an eye. I don’t think she is well weighted here, especially being 6 months younger, but horses don’t know that – for me, quartet possibility at best. At the end of it all, Belgarion from Rainbow Bridge.
Race (10)
I never do well finding the winner of the distance races, but, each year one horse comes out and dominates these races. This year I think it’s Crome Yellow.
Race (11)
Whilst Social Butterfly is carrying 62.0kgs, she is not badly out with the other 3 year olds and did finish second to a smart sort in Kitty Cat Chat. Ohwhatanight, the form has been franked, but is making her handicap debut. Varidian Light is holding form well and must enter the calculations – will stick with Social Butterfly.
Race (12)
Shoot-out between Real Gone Kid and Tarantino, siding with Real Gone Kid.
Danilo Danilovitch, ran against winners last time out, wasn’t disgraced, should be involved in this finish. Callmemrgreenlight, fancied on debut, was slow away, difficult to know whether he will get away on terms this time round, if he does break on terms could be the one they have to beat, considering he was fancied on debut (1/1).
Race (2)
On the run to Duplicity, Starboard looks the one to beat. Wasn’t given the best of rides last time, hopefully from a decent draw will be competitive at the finish. Looks to be shortening in the market, probably start shorter come race time.
Race (3)
Very open race as the betting would suggest (4/1) the field. Interesting to note that van Niekerk has opted to take the ride on the wide drawn Wolf Man (12/13) as opposed to the decent drawn, Superior Leader, who he has ridden on the last four occasions. Going to brass Superior Leader on that alone, when one considers the recent success Nel and van Niekerk have had. Churchhaven is the horse to beat from a decent draw, may have suffered from the dreaded second run after a rest syndrome last time, looks to have run out of puff. Another open race.
Race (4)
Lay of the day, Fabian. Won once over the distance back on the 01/03/2019 in PE, done better over the sprint distances. Captain Stealth must have the truest rating over the distance, run 5, won 2 and placed in another two, also yet to be unplaced over the course and distance, one win, a second and a third place finish. Certainly weighted to finish ahead of Pinkerton this time round. Pinkerton will run in the first two.
Race (5)
The value must lie with Rio Supremo (16.5/1) who is weighted to finish close to High Hosanna (11/10), now 3.0kg better off for a three length beating. Stable jockey Winnaar has opted for the ride on Imposing Angel, hopping off Rio Supremo, I think he has made the incorrect choice.
Race (6)
Kommetdieding must be the most exciting racing prospect at the moment. The manner in which he won last time out, the extra furlong shouldn’t be a problem. Jumping from a less than ideal draw and has to concede weight to most, but are the others running to their rating? Conversely, Kommetdieding may be ahead of the handicapper and should win this.
Race (7)
Many reputations on the line here. One thing is certain, the pace will be on from the jump. Having said that, Russet Air looks to have targeted this race being the reigning champ. Yet to be unplaced over the distance, probably a good place option, currently 1/1 for a first 4 finish. The problem for Russet Air could be the draw (13/14).
Race (
In the last 10 years, three year old have won on 6 occasions and 12 times in the last 20 years, so the 3 year olds have a good 60% record of being victorious either way one looks at it. Clouds Unfold is bidding to win the race for a record third time. A decent pace is almost guaranteed as there are few who enjoy racing handy. Captain’s Ransom at 1/1 is a bit short in the market, considering she is not getting the full allowance in terms of the ratings and wfa allowance. Something that must be taken into account, the only time Captain’s Ransom had a second run after a rest, she was beaten by a horse who didn’t make this field – albeit she was a juvenile back then. Saturday will be the second time she has a second run after a break, and she will be bumping much stronger opposition. If we use Princess Calla as a collateral line horse, I think Clouds Unfold will prevail here. Clouds Unfold a first three place (3/10) is worth sticking in a multiple.
Race (9)
This could be a lot more open than the betting would suggest. One could make a case for more than half the field. Is there a possibility of an upset, probably, as there could be a lack of pace, then any result is possible. The obvious pace-maker would be Running Brave or maybe Cirillo. Really can’t see Running Brave setting a break-neck pace against this field, and if Cirillo sets the pace, it will be even slower considering this may be a first attempt at the distance. Conversely, if he stacks them up and turns it into a sprint 500 out, things could become interesting as he is a somewhat resolute galloper. Wouldn’t be surprised to see African Night Sky acting as the hare, well drawn and racing fit. He could conceivably set the pace and stay on and win, coming to hand at the right time. I think the outcome will be between the Snaith and Sands stables. On it’s last run, I believe Belgarion will win. Rainbow Bridge will run in the first two, if not winning. Golden Ducat, prep has gone the right way, but was weighted to win his last race. The manner in which he won last time, was certainly workman like, picked himself up off the carpet once headed to fight back and win. Not sure he can repeat those heroics against this calibre. Do It Again, whilst coming along the right way, I think this may have come one race too soon, I could be wrong though, but I’ll take a stand. Queen Supreme, won a slow run race last time, if the pace is slow, we know she can quicken in the blink of an eye. I don’t think she is well weighted here, especially being 6 months younger, but horses don’t know that – for me, quartet possibility at best. At the end of it all, Belgarion from Rainbow Bridge.
Race (10)
I never do well finding the winner of the distance races, but, each year one horse comes out and dominates these races. This year I think it’s Crome Yellow.
Race (11)
Whilst Social Butterfly is carrying 62.0kgs, she is not badly out with the other 3 year olds and did finish second to a smart sort in Kitty Cat Chat. Ohwhatanight, the form has been franked, but is making her handicap debut. Varidian Light is holding form well and must enter the calculations – will stick with Social Butterfly.
Race (12)
Shoot-out between Real Gone Kid and Tarantino, siding with Real Gone Kid.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
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- Mac
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- Mac
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