Kenilworth Saturday 30 January MET DAY

ElvisisKing wrote:

Mac wrote: Got 13/2 Queen Supreme [emoji106]


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I like this one Mac..... 1 took 5/1 a few days ago....... will HAVE TO TAKE some more 6.25 / 1 available on HW
PLUS..... the 15 % ADDED to deposits

Frodo wrote: For me the Met is much more open than the odds suggest and I would not take lower than 6/1 about anything; my reasoning:

Firstly, there is the possible lack of pace - if anything African Night Sky may set the pace, but not sure the owner would agree to that - so I think quite likely that it will be a typical Cape Crawl and a sprint.

Secondly, at this stage nobody can be sure if there will be a strong wind, or no wind, or a light breeze and whether this would a head-wind, tail-wind or what; the prevailing wind conditions on the day could influence the pace

I guess at this stage it seems safer to assume that there may not be a good pace, which would imo put runners like Belgarion and Do It Again at a disadvantage, and it would play into the hands of the others.

Cirillo seems big value at current odds - he did finish right next to Golden Ducat and Rainbow Bridge in the Champions Cup over 1800, and the trainer has voiced his opinion that he is a better horse over further these days - he also has ditched the blinkers which at best did not seem to work and at worst has prevented him from running his usual honest race - so big value at least for the places imo

Rainbow Bridge usually races handy, and imo given the probability of a lack of pace, should be favorite - imo will be in the first 3; Golden Ducat has won from a handy position, is worse off by only 1/2kg to runners like Rainbow Bridge, but the fact that he seems to be drifting in the betting, could be a worrying factor

I have no doubt that Queen Supreme should be best in at the weights (receiving the female allowance of 2.5 kgs from the males), but not convinced that 2000 is her best trip and imo her aim was the Paddock Stakes with the Met being a bonus; also imo travelling back and forth can't be to her advantage

Princess Calla - on a line through Clouds Unfold should be held by Queen Supreme, but she may be better suited to the 2000 (only the race will show) - so not the worst value imo

African Night Sky is improving again, but is worse off at the weights with Golden Ducat (who should also still come on from his last run) so I don't think ANS can beat GD

Don't think that any of the 3 at the bottom of the boards will feature at these weights - but no surprise to me should any of the others win

We'll see come 17:10 on Saturday afternoon ......