My software ratings for today's big day. Yesterday the software threw up Jean Paul at 66-1 right on top. I duly put some EW money on to win R720. Does not happen often but makes up for losing streaks. I posted evidence of that bet, yesterday.
Today in Race 9, the software throws up a 40-1 to win! What are we going to do with that?! I mean what is the software smoking? It gets better, 2nd is a 27-1 and 3rd a 24-1 :woohoo: Either play it as given or swing them with the favorite who is much lower down on the ratings or pass the race lol. The software ratings are very useful in making sense of large chaotic races like yesterday at Fairview. In the race before Jean Paul's win, the 2nd rated horse. #14 Moon Game won at 20-1. A win like Jean Paul means (if you back winners only) that you can lose 65 times in a row and still be ahead by 1 betting point. Find a double with Jean Paul and you are talking decent profits.
I still forget to play my value bet exacta properly. I keep telling myself play Jean Paul with the field exacta (paid R4182). Did I do that? Noooo. In other words, if my software throws up a horse like that, playing it exacta with the filed for 15 bucks is nothing but in the rush to place bets sometimes I forget to do the right thing.
Are the ratings a panacea? Hell no but they do a whole lot better than my own analysis over the long term. And the ratings are highly objective assessments of chaotic data and the software never gets tired or makes a mistake in the way I could by overlooking something.
If the ratings agree with the public's assessment of a race, I move on to another race where I think the public (tote) or the bookies got it wrong and I am able to identify some value opportunity (which I marked in red for today). With Bob Brogan's indulgence, if I may have a quick punt: Today is my last free posting of the ratings. I will be looking to make them available on a subscription basis only, daily/monthly. Private message me if you are interested. Bob gets them for free, of course.
Ok, here goes with today's Greyville software ratings. I have added a comment or two on pace shape of some races, and the running style of a few horses eg the software spotted a lone early horse that could wire the filed if he gets on a loose lead etc. These are useful to factor into one's handicapping because it's not always the fastest horse in a race that wins. Oh, who am I? Just an old timer although I look like a young timer by most people's subjective assessment lol. Been in the game for more than 30 years, developed various pieces of racing software in that time that I have sold mainly overseas but this particular piece of software and its ratings is my pride and joy. Yes, the software can get it wrong in some races but that's ok, no software is a crystal ball, but it gets it right often enough for me not to have to keep transferring money into my betting account lol.
That was a long rant, I will shut up now. Good luck to everyone and let's take all the exotics down (although I am more of a value player and a vertical player ie win/place, swinger, exacta, the occasional tri and QAT in a chosen race and leave the horisontal exotics like Pick 6 etc to the guys who have the money and the nerve to invest thousands at a time). That said, my pick 6 money will be floating in the pool today with Nebraas my chosen pick 6 banker! Who does not like a flutter on a big day like today?
Last edit: 2 years 10 months ago by Ptahotep.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Sammy Silver, TNaicker
6 REUNION - nice place bet
12 BEVIES DELIGHT - draw to overcome which might actually help as the jock probably won't try to beat it - place
8 CAPTAIN BOMBSHELL ew
3 TIME FO ORCHIDS very big runner from the draw - put MISS COOL in quartets etc
4 PROPHET ew
SMORGASBORD ew
SHANGO ew
LINEBACKER ew
SILVER MARIA ew
AFTER THE RAIN
More useless top of the boards tipping and
He's in a good space!
He's a top horse!
He's fit and well!
We'll see come Saturday!
Well we brought her back, trying her over distance,we don't know what to expect
Comments 😅
Last edit: 2 years 10 months ago by HiIamThursday.
Pick 6
Potential bankers in order of preference
Leg 6 Marina 12/10 F Best filly in a WFA event, distance suited, good last run over shorter so should be spot on. Dangers are Sprinkles, Kailene, Pink Tourmaline. I don't understand why Fourie is on Follow the Star instead of Kailene
Leg 4 Nebraas 7/2 F Top stayer and the weight structure is in his favour. Missing a hard race in the July will be to his advantage. If he fails then quite open. Black Thorn, Crimson King, Aragosta, Shango, Smoking Hot, Shangani, Imperial Ruby all have money chances. My horse Crimson King missed his prep run on July day, but at best is a threat.
Leg 5 Jet Dark 13/10 F Best rated horse this trip at level weights. Strong opposition from Kommetdieding, Linebacker and Al Muthana
Leg 3 Master Archie 33/10 2nd F Top, up and coming sprinter, great win in the Computaform Gr1. Below best last time first time this course, but should be spot on today. Captain's Ransom won a good race in the SA Fillies Sprint, but has yet to fire this course, but is a danger. Big Burn was my selection last time, and ran below best form. From a good draw could reverse things with the top two in the betting and is my value ew bet here at 10/1. Some hard knockers that could upset the applecart.
Leg 2 River Queraress. 14/1 Disappointing last two, but on best form is weighted to win this if she stays the trip and gets a good draw. Colts to be respected are Quantum Theory, Royal Victory, Prophet, Cousin Casey, Golden Prospect, quite an open contest where the draws and luck could have the last say.
leg 1 Time Fo Orchids 2/1 F Great run last time from a wide draw, still huge scope for improvement and good draw this time. Plenty others with scope to improve in what looks an open race.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Bob Brogan, Lionel, the fantasy, Sammy Silver
More useless top of the boards tipping and
He's in a good space!
He's a top horse!
He's fit and well!
We'll see come Saturday!
Well we brought her back, trying her over distance,we don't know what to expect
Comments 😅
Instead of criticising, be bold and share the winners you found with the rest of us - (otherwise) put up or shut up.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Bob Brogan, mr hawaii
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