VAAL - 30/08/2022

HiIamThursday wrote:

Us Open 40/1
United States-Dam(produced 2sprint winners) trainer thinks will need further.

Houston(out rite favorite)
United states-dam(produced a 1400m+ winner)

🤔🤔...

.....nice ped picture....however this dam is well bred but has not fired with any of the top sires and is clearly craving a better match.....this is a much better mating but may be too late.....

As mentioned by some, big contrast in field sizes from an 18-horse Maiden in Race 2, to many races comprising 6-8 runners - throw in two very short odds-on shots - imo does not make for exciting racing - that being said, probably expected taking into account the stakes on offer and the hard going - and it is probably going to continue in this vein until at least the beginning of October :huh:

Still - there will be 8 winners - let's try and find them ....

R1: Imo Houston too short in the betting, could win of course, but I am not taking that price on a horse that on breeding and the way it ran in his debut, will prefer more ground; Uncle Ticky Bird (I see he has found late etting support) has been gelded and a much more realistic price imo; Umthombo Wolwazi good debut and could also be competitive from a stand-side gate; Desert Fox drifting in the market, but there was some confidence about his chances when he dropped the jock in his intended debut

R2: Queen of Smoke the obvious one from an in-form stable; at the odds I prefer Misava - will be interesting to see how the form of her debut will stand up; seemingly not too much else in the race, so the debutante Lorna Lilly (although probably needing more ground, does not have to be too good to feature here; many others making their debuts or having their 2nd starts - so anything can run into the places

R3: First of the very short odds-on shots; does look like Now I Got You stands out on class here - slight niggle in my mind about the 1600, so I am not that keen on taking the odds on offer; debutante Bronze Sword is by Silvano out of a Jet Master mare, so could prove 2nd best from Battel Ground, who on breeding and on his debut, probably will be better over further

R4: Another hottie - this does seem a very weak field, so A Colourful Past does stand out, but I am even more reluctant to take the odds on offer here; again she may be better over shorter, but the quality of the opposition makes her stand out; the debutante is apparently not fancied, so I'm including Maith an Cailin (what a name :dry: )
and Countess Danza in the P6 - but probably wasting my cash

R5: Into the handicaps, and the disappointing Mingshi gets another chance, and depending on the pace, could ne the right one; however most bar Rattle Bag and Jackman have some sort of chance

R6: Mathis top of the boards and does have a reputation, but for me he has lots to do at the weights; I prefer the chances of Burning Wings and the reliable Twice as Splendid, while Vegas High Rise is said to need the run, but both his wins have come after break, so I'm including him as well

R7: This looks a 3-horse war between the younger fillies Queen of Gaul and Show Times and the capable Benguela Cove; Clean Living the only other to consider, but I think she will be held here at these weights

R8: Competitive handicap to close; Sound of Hounds in form and distance suited, so sure to be right there; Cabinet Shuffle obvious chance as well; Waqaas has run well down this straight and could be the upset - but not too many that can be safely ignored

Enjoy

Muhtiman wrote:

HiIamThursday wrote:

Us Open 40/1
United States-Dam(produced 2sprint winners) trainer thinks will need further.

Houston(out rite favorite)
United states-dam(produced a 1400m+ winner)

🤔🤔...

.....nice ped picture....however this dam is well bred but has not fired with any of the top sires and is clearly craving a better match.....this is a much better mating but may be too late.....

......strike that....as I did not realize that this is heavily in bred close up to Pivotal ....and may need much much more ground.....about a 100 acres of lion invested bush should certainly do the trick....:oops:

Draw looks even today, can probably win anywhere.

Muhtiman wrote:

Muhtiman wrote:

HiIamThursday wrote:

Us Open 40/1
United States-Dam(produced 2sprint winners) trainer thinks will need further.

Houston(out rite favorite)
United states-dam(produced a 1400m+ winner)

🤔🤔...

.....nice ped picture....however this dam is well bred but has not fired with any of the top sires and is clearly craving a better match.....this is a much better mating but may be too late.....

......strike that....as I did not realize that this is heavily in bred close up to Pivotal ....and may need much much more ground.....about a 100 acres of lion invested bush should certainly do the trick....:oops:

Threw my ticket in the bin at the 1099m mark😒!!

Fun Fact🤔...

The horse with the worst Current form in race 5,has the best Course and distance form 😑..

Jackman 75's...

Wings Of Nike was an upset of note. It had the lowest merit rating in the field and this race was a Graduation Plate. 32 merit points behind the favorite and 9.5kgs worse off.