Final Field Hollywoodbets Durban July

I see the final field is out for all the races.

Fourie to ride the JP, appears to only have 4 rides on the day, should we read anything into that?

bayern wrote:

Let's stir the hornets nest. Immediate Edge would be a shock winner for me. Wouldn't back him if the current odds were doubled. There is an opinion that he is better than rated, but by how much. Was weighted to win his last race. Comparing him with Spumante Dolce doesn't really solve how good or average Immediate Edge is, Spumante Dolce is not in the race. 

The de Kock stable has not had a stellar season by he's standards, just can't see this horse changing things come the July.

Spumante Dolce ran behind 8 / 18 in the Daily News so on that run he must have a line ? No ? 

Agreed de Kock has had a quiet season , he was about to retire but with Matt coming back from Aus to join him has put fire in his belly again. I'll never write him off in a big race. 

There is no such thing as a racing certainty, EVERY one of us know that! 



 

Madison valley will get a lovely lead from oriental charm into the home run and looks really good eachway value in this field 

Madison valley lol are you serious the horse will finish closer to last than 1st,trained by a KZN trainer so it has no chance.Just making up the numbers imo.
 

The Class of 2025
There was a collective sigh of relief around the gathered crowd in the Hollywoodbets Greyville parade ring when the name of Eight On Eighteen was read out by Graeme Hawkins as being among the 18 runners for the R5 million Hollywoodbets Durban July.
Trainer Justin Snaith was always cagey about whether his star colt would take his place in the line-up given that he would carry top weight for a three-year-old of 57kg the highest since Abashiri lumped 59kg into 13th place behind The Conglomerate in 2016.
But Snaith and owners Nick Jonsson and Johann Rupert have taken the plunge and Eight On Eighteen will make history should he win and become the first three-year-old in history to win the Gr1 WSB Cape Town Met and the Gr1 Hollywoodbets Durban July in the same year
Eight On Eighteen is also likely to start one of the shortest priced favourites in the 129-year history of the race and his chances were further enhanced when he was drawn 11 in the 18-horse field.
James Crawford has two runners in the race, last year’s winner Oriental Charm who drew pole position and Pomodoro’s Jet who drew 8. It would be an emotional win for James Crawford, who recently took over his father’s string with Brett now plying his trade in Hong Kong.
See It Again races in the same Nick Jonsson silks as Eight On Eighteen and has his third attempt after finishing second to Winchester Mansion two years back and an unlucky fifth last year behind Oriental Charm. He pulled a wide draw of 15.
Stuart Ferrie sends out his first July runner in the hard-knocking Gladatorian. A fast-finishing third behind Dave The King and Oriental Charm in the Gold Challenge, he pulled a wide gate of 16.
Dean Kannemeyer knows what it takes to train a July winner, successful with Dynasty, Eyeofthetiger and Power King and The Real Prince drew gate 5.
Royal Victory will have his supporters but Nathan Kotzen’s charge drew deep at 17. However, he is a winner of the Gr1 Betway Summer Cup and the Gr1 Champion Challenge at Turffontein and finished third in the July last year behind Oriental Charm.
Fabian Habib has his first July runner in Confederate. Relatively lightly raced the gelding has won four of his nine starts but has never finishing further back than second. He won the Gr1 SA Classic beating subsequent Gr1 Champions Challenge winner Fire Attack and will be ridden by two-time South African and current New Zealand champion jockey Warren Kennedy who has made the trip to ride in the race. He drew gate 14.
Mike de Kock has a stellar record in this race and has joined forces with his son Mathew. They have their first July runner together in the three-year-old and recent Gr3 Jubilee Stakes winner Immediate Edge. He carries bottom weight for a three-year-old male of 53kg and has won four of his six starts to date. He drew alongside Eight On Eighteen in gate 10.
Snaith has two other runners in the race, namely Okavango and the one-time winner Native Ruler. Okavango will be ridden by Andrew Fortune and drew 13 while Tristan Godden will have to navigate Native Ruler from gate 18.
Alec Laird and jockey Calvin Habib pin their hopes on Gr1 Betway Summer Cup winner Atticus Finch who drew favourably in 4.
Andre Nel was first up to do the draw for Selukwe and came out with gate 6. Serino Moodley will be doing the honours on Selukwe.
Alan Greef will fly the colours for the Eastern Cape with his star performer My Best Shot who has a midfield draw of 9.
Local owner Sid Moodley has his first July runner in Madison Valley and he drew gate 2 for his trainer Frank Robinson.
Rainbow Lorikeet is the only filly in the race and Candice Bass Robinson’s runner drew well in 7 and will have Deigo de Gouveia aboard.

Dazza post=899974 userid=17249

bayern post=899964 userid=1880Let's stir the hornets nest. Immediate Edge would be a shock winner for me. Wouldn't back him if the current odds were doubled. There is an opinion that he is better than rated, but by how much. Was weighted to win his last race. Comparing him with Spumante Dolce doesn't really solve how good or average Immediate Edge is, Spumante Dolce is not in the race. 

The de Kock stable has not had a stellar season by he's standards, just can't see this horse changing things come the July.

Spumante Dolce ran behind 8 / 18 in the Daily News so on that run he must have a line ? No ? 

Agreed de Kock has had a quiet season , he was about to retire but with Matt coming back from Aus to join him has put fire in his belly again. I'll never write him off in a big race. 

There is no such thing as a racing certainty, EVERY one of us know that! 

......true....and although 8on18 is head and shoulders above this field he and his pilot have to find a way through 17 other rather ordinary and unexposed sorts...... and have seen and been unstuck by hard luck stories.....we all want to be able to claim how good we are at this game ....but I have had bigger wins in this race by not backing the good thing but finding value on the unexposed running a drum....my biggest win was a 1 time winner that many so called racing experts said should not be in the race.....well he finished ahead of 16 other horses and paid over R7 a place...oops



 

Muhti.......  remind us who was that horse ?

ElvisisKing post=899991 userid=842Muhti.......  remind us who was that horse ?

......the name and year escapes me....and tried searching here to no avail but did post something about it.....a horse trained by Mike Azzie ran 4th.....tipped it to all and sundry but a family member backed it with a bookie that only paid 3 places....he was really miffed....oh my

Opinions, opinions .... every one entitled to his or hers ... but imo statements like 'this horse WILL not feature' is not realistic - this is a handicap and many are set weights as per their ratings - My Best Shot and On My Honour is 0,5 kgs 'out', Rainbow Lorikeet is 1 kg 'out', while Selukwe is 2 kgs 'out'; Immediate Edge is sort of the 'dark horse' ito ratings, as he is 'officially' 4,5 kgs 'out' - but we alll suspect that he is 'better than his current rating' - the question is 'how much' ....?

Let's take them in numerical order ... and this is where 'I think' comes into play ....

1 - Oriental Charm - has run 0,5 lengths behind 8 on 18 in the MET - giving him 5,5 kgs; in theory 8 on 18 would have improved 7 points (or 3,5 kgs) between Jan and July - that means that OC is still 2 kgs 'in front' of 8 on 18 - but in the July OC is giving 8 on 18, 3 kgs - so theoretically 8 on 18 should finish in front of OC based on the MET; we all know that OC is not one for giving up the fight, but on the bare facts, I THINK that 8 on 18 will hold OC ....

2 - Madison Valley - has run below par this year (especially in the Greyville 1900), but upped his game substantially in the Cup Trial where he gave On My Honour 0,5 kgs and beat him 0,35 lengths (taking into account that OMH was rumoured to be hampered at the start and that he came with a real rattle at the finish); in the July he needs to give OMH 1 kg - so not really a 'no-hoper' imo - especially since Lerena has chosen him (maybe sort of as a 'default' ?) - and he will be receiving 3 kgs from Atticus Finch having been beaten 2,35 lengths by that one in the Summer Cup - so should run in front of AF

3 - On My Honour - must have a chance to finish in front of Madison Valley - and he was beaten by 8 on 18 by 3,65 lenghts at level weights in the KZN Guineas (where I think it can be argued that both 'needed the run' - in the July he willl be receiving 4 kgs from 8 on 18, so certainly a chance to finish in front of 8 on 18 ? Opened in the betting at a ridiculous 100/1 and stilll looks value at 35/1

4 - Atticus Finch - imo should be held by Madison Valley and On My Honour and should finsh in the first half of the field 

5 - The Real Prince - bred along sprinting lines, but did win the Jet Master over 1600 impressively - a big step up in distance and there is no evidence (yet) that he will get he trip (apart from the stable and jock's confidence that he will do so) - I remain doubtful .....

6 - Selukwe - imo lucky to make the field after winning the Greyville 1900 and 2 kgs out at the weights - not for me  

7 - Rainbow Lorikeet - imo not in the in the class of her rivals and imo should finish towards the tail of the field

8 - Pomodoro's Jet - like The Real Prince, imo he has not shown that he get this distance (and neither has his siblings);  Zackey chose TRP above him and he has not really shown that he could be competitive at this level - not for me

9 - My Best Shot - could be dangerous, as he gets the trip and has swept all before him in the Eastern Cape - still wonder if he has the class, especially taking into account that none of the 'head-line jocks' has chosen him

10 - Immediate Edge - really needs to up his game at the ratings - could be dangerous though as a de Kock inmate - but imo I think he bit off more than he could chew

11 - Eight on Eighteen - must be one of the runners to beat, but imo his odds are very skimpy - so perhaps bank him in a P6 ?

12 - Purple Pitcher - has been on the go this year with disappointing recent form - at best I would compare him to Atticus Finch with not much difference between them - so might still finish in the top half of the field

13 - Okavango - no value at current odds imo - held by 8 on 18 in the DN - not for me

14 - Confederate - claim to fame that he did beat Fire Attack in the Classic with front running tactics - not sure if he would see out the distance though - but not without a chance imo if he gets the trip

15 - See It Again - not a great draw, but he has run close enough to the best to make him dangerous - chance, but might be better suited to 1800/ 2000 ?

16 - Gladatorian - Big weight (earned ?), wide draw and not proven to get the trip - has run against the best, not much to choose between him and SIA (if he gets the trip)

17 - Royal Victory - ran 3rd last year (receiving 3 kgs from See It Again) - probably be running on from a wide draw - floater in the quartet ?

18 - Native Ruler - held by Okavango, so not for me 



 

Very good reading Frodo as always. 

I still think that 57 for a 3 year old to carry over 2200m is a lot and may take it's toll. 

The best 3 year old to win the July IMO was Dynasty and if I remember correctly he carried 53kg ? 

 

Muhtiman wrote:

ElvisisKing post=899991 userid=842Muhti.......  remind us who was that horse ?

......the name and year escapes me....and tried searching here to no avail but did post something about it.....a horse trained by Mike Azzie ran 4th.....tipped it to all and sundry but a family member backed it with a bookie that only paid 3 places....he was really miffed....oh my

Shah Star