Final Field Hollywoodbets Durban July

manwatweet wrote:

Muhtiman wrote:

ElvisisKing post=899991 userid=842Muhti.......  remind us who was that horse ?

......the name and year escapes me....and tried searching here to no avail but did post something about it.....a horse trained by Mike Azzie ran 4th.....tipped it to all and sundry but a family member backed it with a bookie that only paid 3 places....he was really miffed....oh my

Shah Star

Nope that was not an Azzie charge

manwatweet wrote:

Muhtiman wrote:

ElvisisKing post=899991 userid=842Muhti.......  remind us who was that horse ?

......the name and year escapes me....and tried searching here to no avail but did post something about it.....a horse trained by Mike Azzie ran 4th.....tipped it to all and sundry but a family member backed it with a bookie that only paid 3 places....he was really miffed....oh my

Shah Star

Don't think Shahs Star was trained by Azzie. Think it won the Cape Derby with Andrew Fortune up.

Tigershark wrote:

Was SHAH'S STAR not trained by Maingard?

Think you correct

Frodo wrote:

Opinions, opinions .... every one entitled to his or hers ... but imo statements like 'this horse WILL not feature' is not realistic - this is a handicap and many are set weights as per their ratings - My Best Shot and On My Honour is 0,5 kgs 'out', Rainbow Lorikeet is 1 kg 'out', while Selukwe is 2 kgs 'out'; Immediate Edge is sort of the 'dark horse' ito ratings, as he is 'officially' 4,5 kgs 'out' - but we alll suspect that he is 'better than his current rating' - the question is 'how much' ....?

Let's take them in numerical order ... and this is where 'I think' comes into play ....

1 - Oriental Charm - has run 0,5 lengths behind 8 on 18 in the MET - giving him 5,5 kgs; in theory 8 on 18 would have improved 7 points (or 3,5 kgs) between Jan and July - that means that OC is still 2 kgs 'in front' of 8 on 18 - but in the July OC is giving 8 on 18, 3 kgs - so theoretically 8 on 18 should finish in front of OC based on the MET; we all know that OC is not one for giving up the fight, but on the bare facts, I THINK that 8 on 18 will hold OC ....

2 - Madison Valley - has run below par this year (especially in the Greyville 1900), but upped his game substantially in the Cup Trial where he gave On My Honour 0,5 kgs and beat him 0,35 lengths (taking into account that OMH was rumoured to be hampered at the start and that he came with a real rattle at the finish); in the July he needs to give OMH 1 kg - so not really a 'no-hoper' imo - especially since Lerena has chosen him (maybe sort of as a 'default' ?) - and he will be receiving 3 kgs from Atticus Finch having been beaten 2,35 lengths by that one in the Summer Cup - so should run in front of AF

3 - On My Honour - must have a chance to finish in front of Madison Valley - and he was beaten by 8 on 18 by 3,65 lenghts at level weights in the KZN Guineas (where I think it can be argued that both 'needed the run' - in the July he willl be receiving 4 kgs from 8 on 18, so certainly a chance to finish in front of 8 on 18 ? Opened in the betting at a ridiculous 100/1 and stilll looks value at 35/1

4 - Atticus Finch - imo should be held by Madison Valley and On My Honour and should finsh in the first half of the field 

5 - The Real Prince - bred along sprinting lines, but did win the Jet Master over 1600 impressively - a big step up in distance and there is no evidence (yet) that he will get he trip (apart from the stable and jock's confidence that he will do so) - I remain doubtful .....

6 - Selukwe - imo lucky to make the field after winning the Greyville 1900 and 2 kgs out at the weights - not for me  

7 - Rainbow Lorikeet - imo not in the in the class of her rivals and imo should finish towards the tail of the field

8 - Pomodoro's Jet - like The Real Prince, imo he has not shown that he get this distance (and neither has his siblings);  Zackey chose TRP above him and he has not really shown that he could be competitive at this level - not for me

9 - My Best Shot - could be dangerous, as he gets the trip and has swept all before him in the Eastern Cape - still wonder if he has the class, especially taking into account that none of the 'head-line jocks' has chosen him

10 - Immediate Edge - really needs to up his game at the ratings - could be dangerous though as a de Kock inmate - but imo I think he bit off more than he could chew

11 - Eight on Eighteen - must be one of the runners to beat, but imo his odds are very skimpy - so perhaps bank him in a P6 ?

12 - Purple Pitcher - has been on the go this year with disappointing recent form - at best I would compare him to Atticus Finch with not much difference between them - so might still finish in the top half of the field

13 - Okavango - no value at current odds imo - held by 8 on 18 in the DN - not for me

14 - Confederate - claim to fame that he did beat Fire Attack in the Classic with front running tactics - not sure if he would see out the distance though - but not without a chance imo if he gets the trip

15 - See It Again - not a great draw, but he has run close enough to the best to make him dangerous - chance, but might be better suited to 1800/ 2000 ?

16 - Gladatorian - Big weight (earned ?), wide draw and not proven to get the trip - has run against the best, not much to choose between him and SIA (if he gets the trip)

17 - Royal Victory - ran 3rd last year (receiving 3 kgs from See It Again) - probably be running on from a wide draw - floater in the quartet ?

18 - Native Ruler - held by Okavango, so not for me 

 

Elmo wrote:

Service Ace was the name of the horse Mr Muhtiman ...

......that's the one....wink