Neural factor Analysis

What a load of crap. Anybody who chooses between 4 or 5 horses per race will invariably have a 90% strike rate.

chicken 'n chips Wrote:

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> What a load of crap. Anybody who chooses between 4
> or 5 horses per race will invariably have a 90%
> strike rate.

It may be a handy tool for exotic players?

Vaal ratings

Race 1
1  Soul Sister 288.3  
8  As Time Goes On 150.3  
2  Pecan Whistle 146.0   
13  Magic Motion 129.7  
5  Zie Zie Gabor 111.2  


Race 2
7  Spectaboolous 296.3  
8  The Die Is Cast 180.3  
1  Calanish 121.7  
2  National Fleet 119.3   
3  Captain Winter 111.0

Race 3
7  Kentucky Express 298.7 
3  Second World 211.0  
5  Vacherin 138.7  
11  Talleyrand 119.3   
2  Hurricane Force 118.7 

Race 4
1  Mannequin 244.5   
9  Rebecca Sharp 183.8   
2  Adorable 177.0   
3  Stratisfaction 162.0   
6  Kapow 135.3  

Race 5
12  Tutenkhamen 194.0   
3  Parade Prince 189.2   
7  Top Mark 177.0   
2  Moon Dragon 154.2   
8  Brian Boru 147.3  

Race 6
3  Windmill Theatre 231.7   
2  Thick As Thieves 192.8   
1  Lian Dancer 155.8  
8  Right Of Admission 136.3   
4  Wood Be 127.3 

Race 7
11  South Star 294.3   
14  Smanyo 198.0   
10  Shot In The Dark 148.0  
9  Elaenia 133.7   
5  My Candy Girl 127.3 

Race 8
11  Leprecorns Gift 258.3   
7  Starstruck 174.3   
8  Surging Captain 109.3  
10  King'S Destiny 103.5  
4  Nazran 100.2 

Thanks Greg. How would one work out the fair starting price on your selections. In other words, how do I change your point score to a SP price that offers value?

UD, I don't know, MAC would probably be able to to work it out?

Howzit UD. I have attached a small excel spreadsheet on the Green Point last week. For other races you will need to:
1. Plug the names of the horses;
2. Plug their ratings; and
3. Plug the best market prices you can find.

The runners which have perceived value are marked "Yes" in the Perceived Value column. You will need to prioritise which "Yes" is for you eg you may want to choose by:
1. the maximum perceived value (eg in the Green Point was Fabiani @7%);
2. anything you fancy as long it has some perceived value; or, what I prefer;
3. in descending order of the ratings choose the highest rating which has any perceived value, again Fabiani is the example.

Unfortunately, Fabiani ran downfield, but for a R100 profit, you dont get hurt on a losing stake of R5. And if you were are a Pocket Power fan, there's no rule which stopped you backing both.

I would like to give this a go for about 10 races to see if there would be any positive ROI but I understand from Gregbucks that it may be a bit of a ball ache to punch in the numbers. I have run out of bandwidth so I will need to wait for 1 Dec to download Greg's website.

Attached files Perceived value - NFA ratings.xlsx (13.7 KB)Â

Greg,I have been working with these ratings and found that they do not really add value to my SA assessments.My existing workings are more consistent,but I have been working with Hong Kong and Singapore and I don't know if you had a chance to work with them today,but I struck paydirt with them.
Singapore jackpot: 1,3,4,5,10 X 1,2,5,8 X 7,8 X 1,5,6,7,9. 1x=R200.......returned R25000+

Why those selections? Use top 1/2 of ratings and filtered favouring where both" best" and "current" form is BOTH highly rated.....check it out!

(because this meeting was dirt ,also used 'course suitability' as a factor.

Rob well done with the jackpot(tu) ....

I gave up using it for SA RACING as it was not consistent but you have me interested again:D

Singapore on Sunday I think?

Greg that "system" (if u can call it that) seems to get damn close a lot of the time....hope this wasn't just one of those one offs.
Will post my filters for Sun. too!

Thanks Rob, will take note of your selections....

My take on the neural thang.....first stab

2 Uncle Tommy
1 Cypress Point
3 Hurricane Charley
4 Outswinger

2 Il Saggiatore
3 Chrysalis
6 English Garden
5 Lucky Moon

1 Jean Roi
2 Life Of Pi
4 Earl Of Litchfield
6 Orchard House

2 Casey Cool
1 Warm White Night
5 Kiss Again
6 Wethreekings

2 State Blue
8 Covenant
4 Ribbons For Thee
7 Maureen De Lago

1 Ebony Flyer
2 Igugu
4 School Captain
3 Emerald Cove

4 Mateus
6 Cause To Believe
7 Travel Safely
10 Implicit Trust

Greg,after Fri.probably lucky my perm for Singapore on Sunday is cheap cheap!
I cant find anything to take on the bankers,so my J'pot is : 1,2,5,6,7,9,10 / 1 / 2,3,4,6 / 2
Will take a couple of times and hold thumbs.