Neural factor Analysis

I am very much a novice, just started dabbling in it yesterday....

Does anyone use this mathematic system?

Does this work on Probability?

Hibs as I said I'm a novice, I don't think it replaces the ''old style'' of form studying but by factoring in certain information it narrows it down to horses with ''main chances'' of winning.

I will do a NFA for Kenilworth tomorrow and post here if anyone is interested...

Im interested,might not understand it though(

Neural factor Analysis


Artificial Neural networks have been around since the 1950's, but only more recently have they been applied to solve an ever increasing number of complex real world problems dealing with such areas as medical research, law enforcement, mechanical system diagnostics and the environment.


Neural networking, without going deeply into it, is a tool essentially used to analyse information in a structured way by collecting numerous mathematical models to emulate actual observances.

The advantage of Neural Networks is their ability to even out distortions in input data. They are also capable of "learning" the process to which they are applied.

Neural Networks are generally good for solving problems which tend to be too complex for traditional analysis tools such as clustering algorithms, multivariate statistics, fuzzy logic etc.

In many respects, Neural Networks are very well suited to problems that humans are able to solve but other more rigid, traditional methods are not.


Neural network takes the input data and supervises it through the network system to produce a set of Neural Weightings as an output.

These Neural Weightings assigned to each horse are an indication of the best (higher) to worst (lower) based on the factor input values decided upon by the user.

The input information is processed through the Neural Network by a mathematically derived "engine" which drives the system. This engine is composed by a large number of interconnected processing elements which receive and process the input algorithms.

As you know, the analysis of race form is a very complex task. A single weight rating , a la Don Scott is not the only way to solve the pre race riddle.

Traditional weight ratings are but one of these factors and instead of adding a kilo here and taking one off there for other inputs like barrier, consistency etc, the Neural Networks offer an alternative approach to form analysis by combining all the factors mathematically.

With so much racing, the time now required by conventional form techniques would drive one insane, if every day was devoted to "doing the form" old style.

This is where the power of computers, technology and mathematics come into play.

The Neural Weightings derived have shown an excellent record in identifying the main chances.

Of course there is no "magic bullet" in form assessment. At the end of the day we are dealing with 500kg animals with emotions and feelings like the rest of us.

They do not, and never will, always conform to a mathematical formula or a single numerical figure, no matter what.

However, as a guide as to identifying who the main group of horses are likely to be, in the outcome of a race based on the input data, we believe Neural Factor Analysis will give an excellent starting point.

It will provide a "new edge" in form analysis and offer a robust framework within which to assess each runner.

Early evidence suggests this is an alternative way of producing consistent results from your form assessment.

The neural factor analysis is NOT a system.

It takes the traditional class/weight correlation algorithm, adds a new race time algorithm and then integrates the other peripheral elements like jockey, trainer, course, distance, barrier to give a final list of weightings for the main chances.

This final listing depends of course on the users preference of the algorithms (Preference Scale ) and should serve as a very helpful guide to punters desiring to "fine" a field down to the main chances for closer examination.

@gregbucks:

Sounds familiar... not a branch of quantitative management?

However, who feeds in the figures for the factors and how do we account for the unpredictable elements (the horse themselves, besides the jockey and trainer on the periphery)?

But then, let's give it a go.... will wait for your NFA (any connection to NHA?) tomorrow.

BTW: Did you try it today?

If you did, bloody close call with the PA falling down in the last leg!

Umlilo, no did not use it today, so can't blame the computer analysis for the unlucky last:D .... In fact I will ONLY go do the analysis AFTER I've studied the race card, don't want the artifical intelligence to cloud my judgement:S

I don't think we can account for the unpredictable elements in ANY form studying, lets have a look at what the computer splats out and see if it benefits us as punters, after all we need any form of help we can get?

Hahaha..... thats twice today you've been the sharper end of the pencil (NHA)< ..... (I commented on the other website)

@gregbucks:

Tnx gregs.... it's getting together that brings out the best in all of us; there are even sharper chirps at times... in fact, amazing. Hmmm...countrymember for starters!

Wonder if he's now on resuscitation at the country monastery? (Amongst the nuns!)

RATINGS FOR KENILWORTH 20TH NOVEMBER

Bold = highest rating

Race 1:
2 Blue on Blue
3 Excelent Cove
11 Lunar Landing
4 Three Pointer
5 Travel Safety

Race 2:
4 Flowing Star
3 Audrey Rose
10 Catapult
8 Undine
11 Cherry Berry

Race 3:
4 Mister Gone
6 Cap Alright
15 Hurricane Charley
13 Front Cover
14 Gianduja

Race 4:
1 Flaming Dame
3 In Like Flynn
2 Flaming Alice
5 Cash Register
6 Capulette 0

Race 5:
3 Isidingo
1 Tribal
4 Stormy Express
2 Lenton Grove
8 Asaal’s Magic

Race 6:
5 Howdoyoulikemenow
2 Act With Honour
7 Mannenberg
9 Six to Six
1 Legion of Honour

Race 7:
1 Pocket Power
3 Tales of Bravery
6 Fort Vogue
2 Blue Tiger
7 Fabiani

Race 8:
4 State Blue
1 Winter Burst
8 Loving Cup
5 Emmajo
3 La Rosita

Race 9:
2 Mist of May
1 Twinkle Star
10 Greek Goddess
6 Captain’s Catch
5 Pasadera

Hi Umlilo,Ive been with the nuns for a long time now (married over 35yrs) so Im used to nun of this and nun of that!!!!!!!!!!!!

I would like to thank you ALL for the wonderful entertainment you provide and definitely for all the tips that are so freely given.....especially to Newturf....

I would also like to list some of my favourite clanners strictly in alphabetical order.(as they say in the miss world contests).

umlilo
antsinner
eastexpo
gregbucks
hibernia
magiclips
ourypergd
rob faux
scotia
tommy hotspur
wonbyamile ETC ETC ETC

APOLOGIES for not metioning everybody but Ive run out of space and ink......

I hear mother inferior calling me to dinner in the nunnery.......Good Health and please back many winners........................................

I hope mother superior offers you some dessert as well(

@GREGBUCKS:

'I hear mother inferior calling me to dinner in the nunnery'

Mother superior is ALWAYS ON TOP... and she's always calling him to bed!!

Have a good idea of a son of a gun...

BUT
a son of a nun (after 35 years)?

@countrymember:

Hope dinner was on the table; the last time (when you lost on 10 consecutive bets at a grand a throw!) you said something about the Basset Hound's food bowl and cut-price, fish-meal protein-enriched dog food mother inferior laid for you in the back yard!

Was that a cough you had for a week later....or, a bark you developed?