Turffontein Monday

Mondays the day Frozen Fire makes an arse out of me?

I like Power Flow but the price is a bit Skinny so will just watch..

One bet for me Moon Catcher in the last,goodluck and tip us some winners !!!

Hibs I think Power Flow will win his race. I also like Winter Desire. I believe those two should make for a nice double?

I'm certainly not a fan of Frozen Fire and will just be watching that race......that's it!

Happy punting!

Last Chance Saloon for Frozen Fire? I'd never write a De Kock horse off that has any kind of ability, even if the ability hasn't come to the surface for more than two years, but if Frozen Fire freezes and doesn't fire this time then I'll probably have to give up on him. (Which means he'll probably win the Gold Cup....)

If no 'traffic problems' (before the New Year rush!) , home and dry with the ff:

Race 1 No. 4 Crown Heights

Race 5 No. 1 Frozen Fire

Race 9 No. 14 Woman of the Year.

Break a leg and owners with runners.... spring happily into 2011!


(tu)

Magic it`s great for the punters the Frozen Fire fella aint it ? non lol

Well, hib, a punter could also make up his own mind whether 1600/1800m could ever be the right distance for a horse who won over 2400m as a 3yo, and can also make up his own mind whether he is prepared to forgive the horse two years of no success in Europe and Dubai. Frozen Fire is no different to any other horse - a punter must analyse the facts and draw his own conclusions. I agree he has let his backers down big time in SA, but that is neither th fault of the horse nor of his connections.

Magic,I agree except for the issue of "all horses racing on merit" which would require horses to race as fit as possible in order to run as close as possible to its ability.
Many horses,with real class win over much much shorter distances,especially with a large theoretical weight advantage.
This horse has not run anywhere near a 109 and I think it will be interesting to see if it was overrated or just brought along slowly.
Your point is valid regarding punters needing to assess,but that should not necessitate needing to guess that a horse is maybe only 80% fit perhaps,which in this case converts to 11 lengths.
This not a go at the trainers,as such.Can't blame them for operating as regulated(which is generally limited to counting whip strokes and testing horse pee!


The question is easily illustrated: A horse with a MR of 100 returns from a lay-off and runs in a Grad plate with a big advantage,but runs unplaced and later the following revelations emerge:
Trainer:"No grass gallop and short of work and only 80% fit "(ie,5-8 lengths below ability).
Jockey: "riding the horse in a feature later in the month and gave it an easy....could have finished 5-8 lengths closer".

Could the NHA explain why, although the result is identical, history says the trainers comments will be accepted ,but the jockey would be warned off ,possibly for life!

Morning all, my selections for today

R1 - 4 - Crown Heights & 12 - San Clemente
R2 - 2 - Best in the West - 6 - High Lake - 14 - Velvet Jar - 3 - Hunting Dance
R3 - 12 The best overall
R4 - 6 - Mojarad - 14 - Winter Desire - 11 - King Bling
R5 - 4 - Mirage drive
R6 - 6 - Made o magic & - 3 - Mr Hurricane ( also like a bit of Ryan's a lion)
R7 - 3 - Power flow
R8 - 1 - Parade Prince - 6 - Midnight Charger - 8 - Super Trouper
R9 - 14 Woman of the year & - 1 - Moon catcher

Good luck to all

My point, Rob, is that the things you have mentioned apply to countless horses on an on-going basis. Why latch onto Frozen Fire in particular? Perhaps we should question (and I speak in broad terms here, not about any one horse or trainer in particular) why SA trainers are by and large so reluctant to grass gallop their horses. Is it a mindset, or are the training facilities not good enough that we repeatedly have horses effectively "working" in races?

WOS has Crown heights scratched. Is this an error or fact???

Hollywood now has Crown Heigfhts scratched. I guess the shortening in September wind will start fav at a rididculous price betwen 5/10 and evens

Crown Heights is scratched, it seems.