will igugu win the july

pirates Wrote:

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> the whole issue around igugu is that by not
> exposing her to the older generation or opposite
> sex she races off a 109 that she has gained
> against her own age and sex...if he had exposed
> her who knows she could be a 113 to a 116 ...so
> mdk has actually protected her mr ,whether he did
> it on purpose is another question for another day


Pirates there could be merit in what you saying but I beg to differ, mdk has never been scared to put his top fillies against the colts eg- mother russia,flirtation ,zirconieum

bad company Wrote:

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> pirates Wrote:
>

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>

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> > the whole issue around igugu is that by not
> > exposing her to the older generation or
> opposite
> > sex she races off a 109 that she has gained
> > against her own age and sex...if he had exposed
> > her who knows she could be a 113 to a 116 ...so
> > mdk has actually protected her mr ,whether he
> did
> > it on purpose is another question for another
> day
>
>
> Pirates there could be merit in what you saying
> but I beg to differ, mdk has never been scared to
> put his top fillies against the colts eg- mother
> russia,flirtation ,zirconieum


mother russia didnt race with him as a 3yo zirconeuim never raced against older horses or the opposite sex before the july and flirtations ran in features against older and males only as a 4yo...

BC wrote "What you don't understand doyen is igugu never raced against quality colts"

BC is relying on 2 premises when making this statement.

1) That a filly will battle to beat quality colts
2) That this years colts are indeed quality

I do agree that the fact that Igugu has only raced against the fillies would normally make her odds more difficult to assess and as such her risk profile would normally go up. However this could be where the value lies because if you believe, as Pirates implied, that this is actually a positive factor as opposed to being a negative factor as the market would perceive it, then you are ahead of the market.

For me the way Igugu has simply destroyed her opposition this year shows it is likely that she is something special. By the same token the way the 3 year old colts have been running shows me that there is nothing there that is special. One could argue that Igugu's opposition is sub-standard but I believe it is more likely that the colts are sub-standard.

I may be very wrong in this assessment and obviously the race will tell many stories but I believe the 1st premise that BC is relying on is a false one.

A sample size of 1 cannot overide the many, many examples champion fillies beating quality colts at the first time of asking. What happens in the July will not change this.

So I dispute premise 1 as a matter of statistical fact and I also dispute premise 2 as a matter of opinion.

The July will tell us nothing about premise 1 but should tell us the story about premise 2.

As the saying goes, "You pays your money and you takes your choice!"

I cant get away from the fact that ,in her last run,Igugu was 7 lengths slower than The Apache and Run For It,and slower than EVERY horse in that race(including horses rated as low as 79) at level weight.
I realise that times can be misleading but a) these runs were in identical conditions 30 mins apart.
b)Igugu set her own pace so it was based purely on her own stride and unaffected by what she was running against (ie.they were affected by her pace not vice versa).

If there was an identical form line for any other race ,and one horse wasn't called Igugu,most would not hesitate to brass the slower time.(7 lengths is quite a lot)

Mind You,I wouldn't be taking 3/1 even if it was my first choice!

First let me say The Apache for me could be the stand out 3yo colt simply because 1) he won the Dingaans with ease 2)The fact that he was having only his second run after coming out of quarintine in the daily news and winning as he did . He is my first choice for the reasons stated above and his price offers value imo presently .
In my book he should come on more from that run and possibly finish ahead of the 3yo colts in the big one .

The problem is how good is Igugu . For me she is top top class . Why? my sole argument is her oaks win .
She had to be primed to 100% for that race due to it being the final leg of the tiara and so much being at stake that day .
She proved how good she was by setting the fractions on her own and going through with it to the finish .
On that day she ran the 2450m 1,7 sec faster than the derby which means that strictly on times Seal would have finished +- 8 lengths behind her . Ipi tombi did almost the exact same thing when she won the fillies version of the classic in her year .One can argue that Igugu's last win was a lot slower than the Apache .True my answer to that would be ,was she 100% for that race ? I think not !
If the july was run at weight for age she would be my narrow first choice , her 55kg's worry's me a little i must say .ipi tombi carried 51kg's

Bookmakers are going to cry if she wins the july thats for sure .Who knows ,The Apache might save the day for some of them !

Ant,the great thing about racing is the speculation and sometimes we are right,and often wrong ....just as long as we have an opnion.
The derby is one of my "discard" races as I believe that only about 3 horses were genuine stayers....the first 6 in the ratings didn't see it out.

Let us consider another Derby!
A few months ago many were preparing to back Bold Silvano to win the World Cup,(and he won last years July easily) Cast your mind back to the Cape Derby just about 16 months ago and Bravura beat Bold Silvano by 4,85 lengths,at level weights(Irish Flame even further back) Bravura then got injured but if he is fully recovered(and recent runs suggests he is) surely that is the best credentials in the field,even though a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since then.

I was trying to work out why pirates liked Bravura so much,and that explains it for me! I'm with him on that one.

you may add another NO to the vote for me Dave -

good point on the Seal derby it makes perfect sense .

Could i be so bold as to venture to argue that the 2nd horse was Noordhookflyer who had serious stamina doubts as he progressed in his career . Also remember that Bold sylvano and Irish flame joined Mdk which may:S have led to their successes thereafter (taking nothing away from their previous trainers). Nonetheless Bravura did thrash them and warrants huge respect .

Very many angles to look from .

There is a post on scootfree where poster Stiritup has previewd the race quite thoroughly , it's worth a readhttp://www.scotfreeracingwebsite.com/forum/read.php?3,24244,page=1 .

My track record is as bad as Tommyhotsper's when it comes to the july .This year i have backed Blackwing antepost(before the daily news) for a top four and a top five place finish and a wee double R250 staked for him to win it and The Apache for the win .I had to put a few bob on Vertical takeoff as S Tarry has this knack of sticking me out of pocket lately and the horse revells down there .

Make it 16 NO and 12 YES (subject to audit)

Plenty trains of thought, my 2 cents (no offence Mr Maree)

Is IGUGU something special or not? that is the question

If the bonus for the Oaks was not up for grabs, I am sure Igugu would have gone for the Derby (a bigger purse) would have been 5/10 and won comfortably............imvho

But keep the YES/NO coming

If igugu wins the july I'm heading for the nearest rock to climb under, what's worse is that I'll be fetching scotia,zoro and oscar from course so guys please go easy on me lol

If we ignore the Derby / Oaks runs as it was a bit far for some of the horses thats fine. Lets look at the Classics runs, Igugu won by over 10 lenghts in a time of 113.40 she wasn't pushed at all, whereas English Garden won a competitive race in a time of 114.15, showing Igugu's time being 0.75 seconds quicker. If we equate it to lenghts Igugu whould have won the colts race by 4,5 lenghts without being pushed at level weights.

After winning the Tripple Tiara she was give a short break before focusing on the July. As it has been mentioned before in this forum she was probably only about 80% fit and penalties incurred in the Woolavington carry forward to the July. She did what she needed to do by dictating the pace and running close enough to the other top rated horses in her race not to incur a penalty.

I love to see a champion win and I believe she is a champion and will be shouting her home come July Day.

Listen Robert De Nero, it could be worse, you could be a bookie, at least you are not laying her at 4/1 -