will igugu win the july

Pirates a few months back you made igugu your early selection . Obviously that was a few months back and opinions do change over time .What are the main points which changed you view ?

antsinner Wrote:

---

> Pirates a few months back you made igugu your
> early selection . Obviously that was a few months
> back and opinions do change over time .What are
> the main points which changed you view ?


antsinner you have a very good memory...although she won at greyville last time i believe she doesnt really have a turn of foot and believe she will be run out of it in the final 300metres...she took a while to get past princess of light in the oaaks at turfontein as well..she carries about 2 more kilos that i think she should as well...also i have been very impressed with a pair of older males who are very fresh coming into the race and well handicaped...bravura came from an outstanding generation of 3yos and his prep has been superb running dwtd to a half a length in a dist way short of his best...the other horse is super storm who was oh so impressive last hammering galileos destiny who just about represents the male 3yo crop...he is also a 4yo ...the 3rd pick of mine is lion in winter who has only had 2 starts beyond a mile winning the 1800 from a shocking draw and having to be switched several times to beat run for it,his next start in a slow run met he finished strongly to get 5th in the met...going back to super storm he is a full 7kg beetter off with past master on the met run where ss was drawn 18 and got stuck behind in a very slow run race and he is 7.5 kg better off with run for it for their met runs ...however after saying all that the july race is my hoodoo rave as i have only backed 2 july winners being devon air in 84 and flaming rock in 91 and my biggest disapointment was when surfing home had the race taken away from him in 94 as i had big money to come...however its the greatest race in the country by far and this year although not a vintage field is certainly the most interesting in years

nice post Pirates and very valid reasons.l like the case you make for Ss.He as you point out looks very well handicapped.
As for liw , that 1800 he won ,i'm almost certain Run for it met serious interference that day as well. But not sure of the weight turnaround of that race.Also bear in mind the 3yo has weight for age improvement on his side.
I have a sneaky suspision ,this is purely my opinion ,that Bravura may not stay.
Why ? He has run too well in his last 2starts over 7.5 &8 furlongs and my main point is that when he won the derby he beat a pure miler in Noordhook flyer.

So many angles from which to view each runners chances.
Like you say definetly a very interesting contest.
I too have a poor record in this race having backed only London news and Grey's inn .

Watching some of the gallops I really am even more sure now that the July will not be won by a 3 year old.....ANY 3 year old. For me it is the older horses, especially the 4 year old males that hold the key. Super Storm was very impressive. (Sure you all forgot that this was my value when I started the very first thread on the subject some months ago)
Bravura must have obvious claims but there must be a slight doubt that he will get this trip, especially since he has been running super well over an aggregate of 7 1/2 furlongs.

PJ should have a chance as he is honest, has a good draw and good jock.

The only horse from the 3 year old brigade that continues to impress me (more because of physical attributes) is Black Wing. I think he is going to be a serious 4 year old......IF he handles any other race track in the country

1 week to go...............

i have no concerns bravura will stay in fact the only concern is the tight greyville circuit...his 2 comeback runs compared to pj are way superior considering he ran dwtd to a half a length and dwtd thumped earl of surrey who beat pj..also pj has never raced outside of his home base of turfontein and now has to travel 600km to another province..

Gregbucks while the pundits are giving their previews what do you fancy son?

I have narrowed my selection Down to two

Galileo's Destiny
Bravura

There is nothing wrong with Igugu, I think she is a great filly, but 55kg on her back might just be too much. But hey, this filly could then win by 5 lengths considering that she was only 70% fit for her last run. For me it will be about pace and how the race is run. That will determine who the eventual winner will be.

She will finish in the top four

Let me say it once more.... The apache is going to surprise a lot of people.... Igugu is not going to get a clear run and Marcus to run in second followed by run for it.

I know horses don't read but if you use Irish Flame as a line horse (Cape Derby& SA Derby) Bravura holds PJ by 16 lengths!!!!!!!!
Yes Irish Flame checked in Cape and moved to MdK but 16 lengths is a lot.

A few years ago there were doubts whether 3 year old colts carrying 54KG's could win the July. Some are now hoping for Igugu to win with 55KG granted previous races top weight was 58KG back then. I am referring to Eyeofthetiger with 54KG's. There was a lot of debate at the time whether or not a 3 year old could win off of that weight

I could be totally off the mark but I am not convinced that Igugu will be up to it. If she is then she is really something special.

PJ for me - Almost a triple crown winner, wrapped in cotton wool of late to keep the weight off and taking dead aim at the greatest race in Africa with one of SA's greatest racing sons on his back. It would also be great to see someone other than the usual suspects (in training terms) win the race.

Anthony G Wrote:

---

> I have narrowed my selection Down to two
>
> Galileo's Destiny
> Bravura
>
> There is nothing wrong with Igugu, I think she is
> a great filly, but 55kg on her back might just be
> too much. But hey, this filly could then win by 5
> lengths considering that she was only 70% fit for
> her last run. For me it will be about pace and how
> the race is run. That will determine who the
> eventual winner will be.

> She will finish in the top four

Safwan will set the pace for Igugu...

5 days to go for me to cash my winning ticket on PM