2012 Vodacom Durban July

Good afternoon,

I am new to this forum and would love to add my 10 cents.

My shortlist contenders, not in any specific order (information i've obtained supplied by the trainers and observations)

No. 6 : Jackson - K. Teetan - although drawn wide (16) this horse has a turn of foot second to none, Jackson will undoubtly find a run along the rail near the rear of the field and will observe the race pace, I give Jackson a good chance at running a place if not caught wide early. ** Current betting 17/10 **

No. 17 : Gorongosa - K. Shea - drawn (6) must be considered as a dangerous contender considering it's phenomenal form, the distance might be a little on the shy side as it prefers the 2800m and 3200m, depending on the race pace, I give this horse a big shout if dictated from the front, the pace must be quick otherwise Gorongosa will be doing too little too late ** Current betting 8/1 **

No. 18 : Ilha Bela - A. Delpech - although a wide draw (19) This horse will head straight for the rail, I personally believe the distance is a little shy but she will undoubtly have the quickest last 400m. Delpech will have to find a run through the traffic or risk going a little wide on the straight. I give her a place chance at best but depending on her position over the last 400m I believe she has the potential to finish second or third ** Current betting 8/1 **

No. 4 : Beach Beauty - S. Cormack - drawn a little wide (12) this filly has a phenomenal turn of foot, she will undoublty be placed and should run into the money. If Cormack can get a good run off the final straight (i.e. on the rail running second or third) I believe she will go on and win but it all depends where she is sitting on the final straight ** Current betting 15/1 **

No 20. Eton Square - G. Hatt - Horse has a great draw (5) and happens to be the only horse in history to qualify for the Durban July with only 4 runs. This horse has alot of scope for growth and has shown no signs of being green despite leading. Horse will be placed mid division perhaps one or two off the rail and will enter the home straight just behind the leading group, Eton Square has certainly shown character and is my value selection for the July where betting opened at 45/1 has since been claimed into 28/1 ** Current betting 28/1 **

Thanks for taking the time to read my views, i'll add that my prediction for the result is based on history and although draw 2 and 10 are favorable for July winners I believe that like in all sport history has a strange was of repeating itself. Terrance Millard won the July in 1910, 1911, 1912 and 1913. It's strange to witness that MDK won in 2010 and 2011 which happens to be exactly 100 years after Terrance Millard won four consecutive titles. 1910 and 2010 winners had the same draw as for 1911 and Ilha Bela last year so here it is for me in order of preference;

1. Gorongosa - MDK runner
2. Ilha Bela
3. Eton Square
4. Beach Beauty
5. Jackson

Good luck guys and remember enjoy!!!

Please excuse me I meant Igugu last year had the same draw as the 1911 winner, my apologies guys!!

Without wanting to sound rude, your last paragraph is somewhat confusing!

Welcome Winning Post nice first post very detailed.

I believe it was F Murray who won the 4 July's 1910-1913 believe Terence Millard might have been a bit young then.

Yup I was thinking the same.... Terrence Millard a ripe old age if he was training in those days.

Winning_Post Wrote:

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> she will undoublty be placed and should run
> into the money.

I think WP might have had a few too many ales over lunch!

did they use stalls in 1911?

Hibs, a big thank you for all the information(tu)
Really appreciated.

Winning Post..welcome..very nice overview..I think Ive had together with a good mate some hand in the ridiculous odds of 45/1 on ES

Also just take a look on form grids on form outa Eton Squares last run..first 2 runners..both winners..Knock On Wood (who was 5 lengths behind) and Extra Cover (who was 11 lengths behind).

bayern : I agree, read through it again and it sounded weird to me too my sincere apologies.

shrek : You are absolutely correct, it was F. Murray, my research was tangled and my information far from correct, thanks for the clarity.

oscar : Eton Square - 4 runs, 2 wins and 2 places. Last run - ran 1st beat Golden Crest by 0.10 length, 3rd run - ran 2nd to Without Malice by 2.00 lengths, 2nd run - ran 1st beat Meissa by 1.75 lengths and 1st run - ran 2nd behind Bullard by 3.00 lengths. Eton Square has never run at Greyville and will obviously have to content with the short 450m straight but that said the rails are moved from 13m to 6m for races 7 to 12 and Eton Square will start off on good fresh ground.

saksy : "I think WP might have had a few too many ales over lunch!" yeah maybe but let me explain my reasons.

Besides Gorongosa who has a 100% record at Greyville (2/2), Beach Beauty has the second best record but more impressive in my opinion (4 runs - 3 wins and 1 place) look closely at the form of this great race horse and you will notice something rather surprising. 28th Jan 2012 Kenilworth, ran 5th 1.85 lengths behind Igugu despite being brushed 200m out, 29th April 2012, ran 2nd 1.75 lengths behind Tales of Bravery despite A. Forbes dropping the crop 300m out and 1st 22nd May 2012 beating Master Plan by 1.50 lengths at Greyville. She is 58.00 kg's and 1.50kg's better off than Tales of Bravery at 59.50kg's.

Don't get me wrong fella's, Jackson is a great colt and will take some beating but the odds are greatly stacked against him in draw 16, Sea Cottage was the only other runner to win from a wide draw and that was 13, not saying Jackson can't win from draw 16 but let's be honest he's not the quickest Colt when it comes to break speed. Here is another interesting fact, Jackson's highest draw win was 6 where he beat Solar Captain by 2.25 lengths, IMO Jackson won't place in the July.

Wide draw? Dynasty, Classic Flag etc