Get a cup of coffee, apologies they have been perhaps a little long-winded of late. Tricky card, plenty where a bet would not be recommended and beware the Visser stable as usual!
R1 Poor maiden which, in truth, anything could win if turning up in the mood. Quick Glance (Rugg/Brown) on breeding could well take to the surface, has been supported but has a very poor draw. Tempered Steel (Visser/Yeni) is also drawn badly, tries 1200 for the first time but was a somewhat disappointing beaten fav on course debut. Waterloo Bay (Sham/Wrog) takes a big drop in distance, yet to try 1200 over sand but 0/3 top 3 for 1200 turf runs, drawn 1. Call For Change has been running on over 1000 and has some fair form but drawn wide. One at a bigger price perhaps worth a look is Oriental Way, has been fading over further but has a 0-1-1 top 3 record at the distance with the 3rd coming at the course, has appie up taking weight off and a not-so-terrible draw in 7. Gone for value selection... Oriental Way x Call For Change x Tempered Steel
R2 An extremely weak looking field. Take Two Turns has only finished within 9ls of the winner once on 5 visits to the course, a 0.25l 3rd over the distance. She is poorly drawn here and comes off a 12 week break but has raced behind some horses which would win this easily so the form may be better than it first appears. Set The Scene made her course debut with a 4.5l 2nd last time out, tiring late over 200 further and finished 1.75l infront of Success, between them (on runs behind Cider Apple and Scarlett O Tibbs) they seem to hold much of the field, though there are some conflicting form lines. Always Camille was 2.5l behind Success over c and d in the race won by CA but it is possible AC ran below par that day. She has finished top 3 in 3/3 course runs, the distance is a possible concern but she does have a decent draw. Angel's Mystery (Rugg/Brown) was a 6l 3rd on her second run here and in this poor field from a good draw she can't be discounted. The rest with experience appear to amount to little but Unrelated from the Sham stable could improve on a poor first sand run. Any Cliffie Miller/MVR newcomer to the sand should be respected and Copy Cat won't need to be special if taking to the surface to win here from a decent draw in 6. More through a process of elimination than anything else, selection... Copy Cat x Set The Scene x Success
R3 Mountain Rush (Shams/GW) has placed in both course starts and returns to his sand debut distance when beaten 1l by a winner who has won again since. Drop in distance last time probably did not suit. Khumula (Miller/MVR) is 0-2-2 in 6 c/d attempts and, sprints aside, has been more consistent in recent runs. There are form-lines which indicate he could go close but is returning from a rest. Royal Bastide drops in distance having run second in a very weak maiden last time, that was off a 17 week rest and Muzi retains the ride so there could be improvement if not suffering 2nd run after a rest syndrome. Prove A Point and/or Glorious Leader have all finished behind those already mentioned and seem well held. Selection... Mountain Rush x Khumula x Royal Bastide
R4 R4 Get the pin out as many in with a chance. Breeze By (Visser/Yeni) had some ok form in KZN and if taking to the surface could well be involved here but the price is very short. Paris Symphony (Sham/Gunter) started her sand career in a whirl of glory but has been extremely disappointing since, a 3rd two runs back hinted at a come back but she was then resoundingly beaten again. Back off a 16 week rest, which may work the oracle, but until there is a return to form I'll avoid. Little Swan has two wins in 6/8 top 3 course finishes and two thirds in both c/d runs but recent runs have been disappointing. Well drawn and a chance at her best. Gaelic Girl returned from a 16 week rest to run second over 1200 last time out. If coming on for that run and not suffering from 2nd run after a rest then a chance here with trainer in good form and a return to a distance which is possibly more suitable, though has yet to place in 3 distance runs. Rugg has two representatives both with chances. Sakkie Sakkie won her maiden convincingly over this c/d and has not been disgraced in her two subsequent outings. However, Brown, who rode SS to victory on the only occasion he has been aboard presumably prefers Scarlett O Tibbs as he rides this one. SOT who won her maiden well, drawing away over 200 less, on course debut last time out, is 3rd run after the rest and has the better draw of the two Rugg runners. Selection, if you insist on having a bet... Scarlett O Tibbs x Sakkie Sakkie x Gaelic Girl
R5 On their penultimate c/d meeting Desert Rat won at 28/1 with Karlo 1.75l behind. When meeting again at the c/d, with a 3kg pull, Karlo worked the miracle and finished all of 7ls ahead of Desert Rat. The owner of Karlo was told to be on course for that last meeting and the horse was supported in from big odds to win at an SP of 22/1. Both horses are from the Visser stable. They have five horses in today's field, though perhaps fortunately for us, the biggest price on any of the horses is 15/2. I am sure they like all their horses today and can't choose between them and as ever for this punter, it is nigh on impossible to know what will happen with their horses. Muzi is on Karlo and this one has run fairly consistently against some decent campaigners over 1800. His c/d record of 1-1-0 in 2 runs against an overall record of 1-2-2 in 12 course runs would suggest this is his distance. Desert Rat gets Simons up and is 3kgs better off for that beating by Karlo. He has not campaigned so well since over 1800 but two runs back returned to 2200 and won again (when supported in from 7s to 7/2), thrashing the field by over 10ls under appie AA. He also has a much better c/d record (2-0-1 in 5) than overall (2-0-2 in 13 runs). Mahogany has not tried the distance before and has a course record of 0-2-1 in 12 runs. He did improve last time over 1800 though, finishing 1.25ls ahead of Karlo (1kg worse) and 8.75l infront of DR (4kg worse) and if he stays he can't be discounted. Their 4th runner, Dolomite, was beaten 10ls over 1800 on his only course run, AA is on this one. The fifth is Castle Rock who was beaten almost 11ls by DR (10.5kgs worse) on course debut over this c/d. CR did stumble that day but was a somewhat disappointing favourite, especially getting beaten by his supported stablemate. Of the remainder, Campo de Santana (Spies/Chambers) has been beaten by DR over this c/d, has a history of starting badly and poor recent form. He did though win his last c/d run from the worst draw and would be a threat if at his best. Miesque's Force (Rugg/Brown) usually runs over 16/1800, he has twice gone this c/d, winning his maiden but being beaten 11l in his other try, drawn widest here. Beijing Olympics beat MF (1.5kg better off) by 2.5l over 1800 in his penultimate run. Coming off a rest but has won 2 of his three course runs, winning 1/2 over c/d. He was beaten 32l by CdeS over c/d last time when 11/10 favourite so it would be hoped something was amiss. Selection... who knows? any owners due on course? Karlo x Mahogany x Desert Rat
R6 Oh!! what joy!! another race with 3 (after scratchings) Visser runners! And Rugg has 4 too! The 3 Visser runners first... Cruso has some decent Vaal sand form and is sired by Mogok, chance if taking to Bingo but back off an 18 week rest, AA now rides. Kentucky Express has a 6-4-6 record in 28 distance runs, he has one additional silver in 39 total runs. It is thus somewhat perplexing that he was run over 1200 on his first three Flamingo runs. All three runs were poor but Simons is on board and at 50/1 may be worth nibbling back over 1000. Memghar's best attempt in his 3 course runs was a very good second to Mr Vindaloo at this distance, Muzi now takes the ride. Mr V finished 0.5l ahead of Memghar and with Muzi now aboard Memghar, Mr V is probably better off at the weights. At the price there is unlikely to be an international betting coup planned but Mr V has been running very fast times, is on a three-timer and the trainer is in fine form. Rebel Queen (Spies/Chambers) ran very well on the Vaal sand a few days back, a very unlucky loser over 1200. Has visited the course twice before, both over this distance, and has finished first and third. A big runner. Derbaas won last time out but I will be surprised if he is good enough to repeat here. The Rugg runners... Varsity Star has a c/d record of 3-3-1 in 9 c/d runs but was 2.25l behind Mr V and is now only 2kgs better off. He was also beaten 2.5l by Bomber Bill who in turn was beaten 2.75 by Mr V but has a possibly significant 4.5kg pull. A 4-6-2 record in 14 c/d runs must be respected. Smart Sally beat VS by 1.75l over c/d and is now 1.5kg better off. A 5-4-3 c/d record in 15 runs must also be respected but is returning from a rest. Somewhat surprisingly, Brown is on Boston Legal and on form he is behind a few of these. Overall a very difficult race to call with plenty of decent sand performers. Selection... Mr Vindaloo x Memghar x Bomber Bill
R7 Kate's Emblem (Rugg/Brown) is 2-2-2 in 7 c/d runs and has a 4.5kgs pull with She's Got Gears (Visser/Yeni) for a 1.3l defeat and must have a good chance of overturning that form. SGG has a very respectable 1-2-2 record in 8 c/d runs and must have chances again. Princess Alberta (Spies/Chambers) appears to hold the likes of SGG over 1200 on runs with Gypsy Fair but was well behind Mr V on course debut over this distance and has an overall record of 0-1-2 in 13 distance runs (turf included), though has often been thereabouts. Winter Frost has some ok runs on the Vaal sand but seems held by PA on the run behind La Volta. A respectable course record of 4 top 3s in 8 runs is unlikely imo for Fantasy Hostess to feature despite trainer and jockey being in form. Golden Slipper drops in trip but her maiden win in her penultimate race was very weak and unlikely to feature. Nips Nuggett is unplaced in 11 distance starts. Snow Garland has some equally poor form but (a Visser horse) did manage to pop up over c/d in her penultimate race to win at 36/1 while stablemate and odds-on fav SGG languished 4.5l back in 4th. Strangely the race before that SGG had beaten SG by 7.5l over c/d and the race after SGG was 6.5l ahead of SG, though that was over 1200 and SG was drawn poorly. I wonder if the owner of SG was told to be on course on her penultimate run? All things being equal, the one that interests me in the race is Star Voyager. Has been a long time off the course and not run well at the Vaal sand but showed signs of something of a return to form on the turf in her last run and has a record of 3 wins in 4 course visits all over this distance. Trainer form is something of a concern but she could well be a horse for a course. Selection... Star Voyager x Kate's Emblem x Princess Alberta
R8 Code Red goes for a six-timer and could succeed. 3/4 for c/d wins and 7/12 course wins plus 3 further top 3 places. On his last run over c/d, Metro Man (Visser) has a 4.5kgs pull for 2.25l but CR goes from the widest draw then to the 1 box here. Marwing may take weight off MM but he is not Muzi who is aboard Eye Of The World who was 3rd 2.75l back. Jack Dan was a 4l 4th and gets a 3kg pull. Big Daddy (Visser) was 5th 4.75l behind CR and now has a 5kg pull. BD did improve last time though, winning at 14/1 while stablemate and 22/10 2nd fav MetroM languished 3l back in 3rd. That said, BD was returning from a 19 week rest in the run against CR and it was 3rd run after the rest when winning. King Of Mountain (Miller/MVR) was second that day, having lost ground at the start he was gaining at the finish. Sudden Surprise is a decent performer but may struggle against these at this distance. Selection... Code Red x King Of Mountain x Big Daddy
R9 Sweet Latte (Visser/Yeni) returns to the 1400 where she is 2-2-0 in 5 c/d runs with a 3-3-0 in 9 overall course runs. For the most part, she has been running consistently and must have another good chance here. She was beaten 1.5l by Tenacious Tess last time and though 3.5kgs worse off with Vestal Virgin (Sham/Wrog), SL is probably the better suited of the two to 1400. The other Sham runner. Kahal's Secret was much further back but at best could be a threat. Gypsy Fair bounced back to form over 1200 last time and though previous form says she has something to find plus a 0-1-2 record in 7 c/d runs, the ease with which she won last time did give the impression that there may be more to come now. the inform Mariba retains the ride. A total surprise wouldn't be a shock but as is often the case when I get close to the end, I've pretty much had enough now so, as I think I have already covered the major players, selection... Gypsy Fair x Sweet Latte x Vestal Virgin
Topic Author
