Try and Work This One Out

gregbucks Wrote:

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> hibernia Wrote:
>

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>

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> > If your serious at the game ,value and
> maximising
> > your profit are the most important parts of
> > gambling imo,taken Tote wins can never
> guarentee
> > this,especially when things like mentioned
> above
> > happen
>
> even it its a hobby the same would apply
> Bob...(tu)


thats true Greg it`s all relevent,whether it`s R100 or R10000

hibernia Wrote:

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> If your serious at the game ,value and maximising
> your profit are the most important parts of
> gambling imo,taken Tote wins can never guarentee
> this,especially when things like mentioned above
> happen

As per my reply to JAP above, don't lose sight of the other side of the value coin. If I see value in Hell's Kitchen paying R8.0 on the tote for the Win, and place the bet accordingly, imagine my surprise when it wins and pays R18.4 instead. This is bound to happen on six of my winning bets, and on the other half-dozen it's going to go against me.

Swings and roundabouts.

Edge Wrote:

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> hibernia Wrote:
>

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>

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> > If your serious at the game ,value and
> maximising
> > your profit are the most important parts of
> > gambling imo,taken Tote wins can never
> guarentee
> > this,especially when things like mentioned
> above
> > happen
>
> As per my reply to JAP above, don't lose sight of
> the other side of the value coin. If I see value
> in Hell's Kitchen paying R8.0 on the tote for the
> Win, and place the bet accordingly, imagine my
> surprise when it wins and pays R18.4 instead.
> This is bound to happen on six of my winning bets,
> and on the other half-dozen it's going to go
> against me.
>
> Swings and roundabouts.

So basically its punting blind...??

No, it's about looking for value. I'm a tote board watcher, and I usually don't bother with local racing, because the Win pools are too skinny for my program to get a good read on the flow of money. The one exception is a stand-alone meeting @ Scottsville, for some reason that I cant explain! All other local venues tie for last, and if this meeting had been @ Vaal I wouldn't even have been in a position to comment on this thread.

Have a quick glance at the Win pools for Cagnes-Sur-Mer later today. It takes a sizeable bet to materially affect a Win dividend when the pools are that size. A few weekends ago, there was a Group One harness race @ Vincennes, and the Win pool reached R27 million!

By the way, my program picked the winner in that race, and it paid R9.7, more than I was expecting!

Edge, I assume you use that "weight of money" system that links to tote bets??
Are from the Vryheid / Newcastle area?

The problem is you never know when the Aussie punter will pop up?
So if you like surprises good or bad the tote the way to go, it's your choice (tu)

rob faux Wrote:

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> Edge, I assume you use that "weight of money"
> system that links to tote bets??
> Are from the Vryheid / Newcastle area?


Rob, I developed my own program, which uses TABOnline's Win & Place Odds display as input, and I'm in Umhlanga.

Something wrong with the system, there is no way,repeat NO WAY, than any International nutter is putting so much on our tote in one bet! Would place it with a bookie to ensure the correct odds.
I am sure that when Saftote tally up, there are some big 'shortfalls' somewhere.
Good Luch to those that got R16 a win on a 3-1 shot in race 5!!!! money for jam

Edge Wrote:

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> rob faux Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Edge, I assume you use that "weight of money"
> > system that links to tote bets??
> > Are from the Vryheid / Newcastle area?
>
>
> Rob, I developed my own program, which uses
> TABOnline's Win & Place Odds display as input, and
> I'm in Umhlanga.

OK thanks.I sat at a table at Turf the one day with a guy who uses that "bought" system I must say it was interesting but quite a scary strategy(IMO)............it just felt that someone else' activities were anonymously dictating his betting :S

Edge, you must have been born with the helmet bru because you can see into the future. how do you know which one is going to shorten and where the value lies before 30 seconds after the race has jumped?????

You are better than what I am and my family brought the amtote system into the country so I know a thing or two about it......

Good luck to you, please next time you get that type of feeling let the rest of us know so we can give the Aussie ghost a run for his money!

TH, I make all my betting decisions one minute before the off, and I'm not interested in which one's going to shorten, I'm more interested in which one has lengthened. Therein lies the value. I also have no interest in the Aussie ghost, since his money comes on after the race closes, and even I can't see that coming.

If you think I'm better than you, well, you're entitled to your opinion!

Edge Wrote:

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> TH, I make all my betting decisions one minute
> before the off, and I'm not interested in which
> one's going to shorten, I'm more interested in
> which one has lengthened. Therein lies the value.
> I also have no interest in the Aussie ghost,
> since his money comes on after the race closes,
> and even I can't see that coming.
>
> If you think I'm better than you, well, you're
> entitled to your opinion!

But there generally is no value to be had until after the big money comes in, that is just the rub right there. The horses trade relatively range bound because the influx hasn't shown up until the co-mingling happens in which case the dividends go haywire. So even if you picked the horse who you perceive offers you value, that may all change once the co-mingling is complete. you have perhaps gotten lucky by picking horses that have drifted off the boards due to the ghostly funds but wait until you back the horse who is showing R6-00 a win and you feel 3/1 is value, then after the horses cross the line the horse changes to R1-20 a win........then what?